Working Papers
1996
July 1, 1996
Deja Vu All Over Again? the Mexican Crisis and the Stabilization of Uruguay in the 1970's
Description: Comparing the 1978-82 Uruguayan stabilization with the 1990-94 Mexican experience reveals that exchange rate based stabilization tends to increase the economy’s vulnerability to unexpected shocks. An exchange rate rule, with full capital mobility, can only succeed if compatible financial policies are strictly adhered to--even when severe negative shocks take place--and if reliance on persistent capital inflows is not essential. This requires monetary restraint, even under serious recessionary conditions, and tight fiscal policies to moderate interest rates. The epilogues of both experiences demonstrate that abandoning the exchange rate rule in the wake of a shock, even if inevitable, makes future stabilization more difficult.
July 1, 1996
Budget Processes and Commitment to Fiscal Discipline
Description: This paper develops a political-economy model of the budget process focusing on the common pool problem of the public budget. We show that the externality arising from the fact that public spending tends to be targeted at individual groups in society while the tax burden is widely dispersed creates a bias towards excessive expenditures and debt. This bias can be reduced by introducing elements of centralization in the budget process, that is, institutional structures that strengthen a comprehensive view of the budget over the particularistic view of the spending ministers and the members of parliament. Using examples from EC countries, we show how budget processes lack or possess such elements. We then present empirical evidence supporting the claim that centralizing elements reduce the deficit bias. The last section concludes with models for reform of the budget process.
July 1, 1996
The Role of Labor Market Rigidities During the Transition: Lessons From Poland
Description: The transition to a market economy has been analyzed primarily from a stabilization prospective. To complement that approach, we focus on a pure relative price shock and subsequent price adjustments. A model of monopolistic competition with costly labor adjustment indicates that relative price shocks can induce overall output decline because rigid sectoral real wages do not adjust to offset sectoral price changes, and firms that benefit from the price shock engage in monopolistic behavior. In Poland, empirical evidence suggests that relative wage rigidity contributed to lower employment and output, but there is no strong evidence that competition was important.
July 1, 1996
Why is China Growing so Fast?
Description: China has been growing at a spectacular rate in recent years, enabling per capita incomes to almost quadruple in only the last decade and a half This paper identifies the sources of economic growth in China from 1953 to 1994. While capital accumulation played an important role in China’s economic growth throughout the period, it is basically the sharp and sustained increase in productivity that accounts for the unprecedented economic growth observed during the reform period. The productivity gains largely reflect market-oriented reforms, especially the expansion of the nonstate sector, as well as China’s “open door” policy that brought about a dramatic expansion in foreign trade and foreign direct investment.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 44, No. 1, March 1997.
July 1, 1996
The Case for Accrual Recording in the IMF's Government Finance Statistics System
Description: This paper investigates whether the planned revision of the IMF’s A Manual on Government Finance Statistics should advocate an accrual basis of recording over the essentially cash basis of recording in the previous manual. The paper concludes that the revised manual should advocate an accrual basis in order to address deficiencies of the existing modified cash basis and enable a greater degree of harmonization with other macroeconomic statistical systems. The paper suggests a strategy that would enable countries to move progressively to compiling an extensive range of accrual information reconciling data on economic and financial flows and stocks.
July 1, 1996
Recent Trade Policies and An Approach to Further Reform in the Baltics, Russia, and Other Countries of the Former Soviet Union
Description: This paper reviews the extent to which the Fund’s trade policy advice to the Baltic countries, Russia and other countries of the Former Soviet Union has been implemented. It broadly traces the evolution of trade policies, emphasizing the period from mid-1993 through end-1995, attempting to identify some of the factors affecting uneven progress in trade reform. Based on insights from the public choice literature on endogenous policy theory, the paper makes recommendations for refining Fund advice with a view to facilitating future progress on the trade-policy front.
July 1, 1996
Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries: Composition and Macroeconomic Effects
Description: This paper studies how the composition of fiscal adjustments influences their likelihood of “success”, defined as a long lasting deficit reduction, and their macroeconomic consequences. We find that fiscal adjustments which rely primarily on spending cuts on transfers and the government wage bill have a better chance of being successful and are expansionary. On the contrary fiscal adjustments which rely primarily on tax increases and cuts in public investment tend not to last and are contractionary. We discuss alterative explanations for these findings by studying both a full sample of OECD countries and by focusing on three case studies: Denmark, Ireland and Italy.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 44, No. 2, June 1997.
July 1, 1996
Does the Gap Model Work in Asia?
Description: There is considerable evidence from industrial countries that the output gap is an important determinant of inflation. We examine whether the gap model also works in developing, newly industrializing, and industrial Asian economies. Our output gaps are based on a new nonparametric estimation procedure for trend output that does not require an arbitrary specification of the degree to which the data are smoothed. We test simple versions of the gap model in which the change in inflation is related to the output gap, as well as to the money supply and the terms of trade. We conclude that the gap model works very well in almost all of the Asian economies we study.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 44, No. 1, March 1997.
July 1, 1996
FEERs and Uncertainty: Confidence Intervals for the Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate of the Canadian Dollar
Description: Models of Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates (FEERs) impose internal and external balance, and so appeal to fundamental notions of equilibrium from a macroeconomic perspective. However, the need to estimate internal and external imbalances creates uncertainty in the approach. Parameters must be estimated, and equilibrium balances must be gauged using judgement. Hence it makes sense to consider the FEER as a statistical estimate rather than a fixed number, and to calculate confidence intervals for the FEER. This paper calculates such confidence intervals with data for Canada, under a variety of assumptions. The estimated confidence intervals are quite wide, principally because of uncertainty about price elasticities in the underlying trade equations.
Notes: Models of Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates (FEERs).
July 1, 1996
Broad Money Demand and Financial Liberalization in Greece
Description: This paper develops a constant, data-coherent, error correction model for broad money demand (M3) in Greece. The model contributes to a better understanding of the effects of monetary policy in Greece, and of the portfolio consequences of financial innovation in general. The broad monetary aggregate M3 was targeted until recently, and current Greek monetary policy still uses such aggregates as guidelines, yet analysis of this aggregate has been dormant for over a decade. Inspite of large fluctuations in the inflation rate, introduction of new financial instruments, and liberalization of the financial system, the estimated model is remarkably stable. The dynamics of money demand are important, with price and income elasticities being much smaller in the short run than in the long run.