Working Papers
1997
April 1, 1997
The Effect of Expected Effective Corporate Tax Rates on Incremental Financing Decisions
Description: This paper uses U.S. panel data to estimate the effect of expected effective corporate tax rates on firm’s leverage. The paper directly estimates expected corporate tax rates using rational expectations. The estimated measures of the expected effective tax rates of firms are related to a continuous measure of incremental debt financing. The paper finds that expected effective tax rates are significantly and positively related to a higher level of debt financing. Simulations suggest that debt issues would double if firms were unable to shield profits and actually faced the statutory tax rate.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 44, No. 4, December 1997.
April 1, 1997
Aspects of the Monetary Transmission Mechanism Under Exchange Rate Targeting: The Case of France
Description: This paper examines monetary transmission in France using the vector autoregression methodology. Interest rates are decomposed into external and domestic components, and a nonrecursive contemporaneous structure is used to identify the system. Innovations in the external component are found to have a significant impact on economic activity, while innovations in the domestic premium have a statistically negligible effect, suggesting that interest rate hikes in defense of the franc may have had a smaller impact on the economy than usually thought. The paper also discusses some implications of Economic and Monetary Union and provides evidence concerning the importance of the credit channel in France.
April 1, 1997
The Effect of Globalization on Wages in the Advanced Economies
Description: This paper examines the effect of globalization on labor markets in the advanced economies, focusing particularly on the claim that increased economic integration has widened the gap between the wages of more skilled and less skilled workers. The broad consensus of research is that globalization, both in terms of increased trade as well as increased capital mobility and foreign direct investment, has had only a modest effect on wages. Instead, changes in technology have led to a pervasive shift in demand for labor that has favored skilled workers to the detriment of less skilled workers.
April 1, 1997
Deindustrialization: Causes and Implications
Description: All advanced economies have experienced a secular decline in the share of manufacturing employment—a phenomenon referred to as deindustrialization. This paper argues that, contrary to popular perceptions, deindustrialization is not a negative phenomenon, but is the natural consequence of the industrial dynamism in an already developed economy, and that North-South trade has had very little to do with deindustrialization. The paper also discusses the implications of deindustrialization for the growth prospects and the nature of labor market arrangements in the advanced economies.
April 1, 1997
A Provincial View of Economic Integration
Description: This paper develops a method of testing levels of economic integration based upon consumption smoothing, and tests it using data on trade balances across Canadian provinces. The results indicate the provinces are highly integrated within Canada, but integration between Canada and the rest of the world is partial. Provincial trade balances respond only about half as much to events in the rest of the world as they do to events within Canada. In short, national borders appear to matter for intertemporal trade.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 44, No. 4, December 1997.
April 1, 1997
Bank Concentration and the Supply of Credit in Argentina
Description: This paper examines the effects on the supply of credit of the concentration of financial institutions in Argentina that followed the crisis caused by the December 1994 devaluation of the Mexican peso. While the concentration process may have improved the efficiency of domestic financial intermediation, the analysis suggests that, due to the presence of information asymmetries in the banking sector, it also may have contributed to the contraction in bank lending observed during 1995.
April 1, 1997
The Effects of Forward-Versus Backward-Looking Wage Indexationon Price Stabilization Programs
Description: A standard open-economy model is used to show that price stabilization programs are more likely to succeed if labor contracts specify forward-looking wage indexation. Compared with contracts specifying backward-looking wage indexation or wages based on static expectations, such contracts will result in a greater reduction in inflation with lower output costs, smaller misalignment of real wages, smaller outflows of reserves, smaller disruptions caused by policy announcements, and a reduced impact of some shocks during price stabilization programs. These results are generally true whether or not capital is mobile and whether or not expectations are rational.
April 1, 1997
Aspects of Fiscal Performance in Some Transition Economies Under Fund-Supported Programs
Description: Key medium– and longer–term fiscal issues faced by transition economies are reviewed, including government solvency and the sustainability of the fiscal–financial–monetary program. The paper aims to assist the design and implementation of future Fund programs and to contribute to the debate about fiscal policy in transition economies. After presenting a framework for evaluating the sustainability of the fiscal–financial–monetary program of the state, some numerical material is presented on public debt, (quasi–) fiscal deficits and monetary financing. Eight budgetary issues of special relevance to transition economies are considered next. The lessons from this study are summarized in a number of propositions.
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