Working Papers
1997
December 1, 1997
Some Issues in the Design of Monetary Instruments for the Operation of European Economic and Monetary Union
Description: The European Monetary Institute has been working with national central banks of the European Union (EU) to prepare instruments for the operation of monetary policy in Stage 3 of European Economic and Monetary Union. Several publications describing the proposed arrangements have been issued. This paper briefly summarizes the arrangements and identifies some areas in which important decisions still have to be made or refinements introduced—including the choice of counterparties in fine-tuning open market operations; the design of reserve requirements; the signaling function of monetary operations; and payment system relationships with non-EMU participants in the EU.
December 1, 1997
IMF Estimates of Potential Output: Theory and Practice
Description: The concepts of potential output and the output gap are central to the IMF’s analytical work in providing policy recommendations to member governments. This key role has stimulated research at the IMF to develop and refine estimation techniques. This paper summarizes the methodology and results of IMF research on potential output, which has focused mainly on the industrial countries but more recently has addressed issues related to developing countries and countries in transition. It then discusses the approaches that country desk officers use for operational purposes, and presents estimates of potential output for the major industrial countries.
December 1, 1997
Money, Wages and Inflation in Middle-Income Developing Countries
Description: This paper examines the short-run links between money growth, exchange rate depreciation, nominal wage growth, the output gap, and inflation in Chile, Korea, Mexico, and Turkey, using a generalized vector autoregression analysis. Nominal historical wage shocks are shown to have an important effect on movements in inflation only in Mexico. Generalized impulse response functions show that a positive historical shock to nominal wage growth generates a transitory but significant reduction in output. Inflation increases in all countries, particularly Mexico. A positive shock to nominal money growth raises real cash balances on impact and exerts an expansionary effect on output, despite an increase in real wages.
December 1, 1997
Vertical Tax Externalities in the Theory of Fiscal Federalism
Description: Vertical tax externalities between levels of government can occur in federal structures, with responses to the tax policies of one level of government affecting the tax base of the other. Such effects mostly arise when federal and state governments co-occupy the same tax base. This paper examines these externalities by considering their implications for a range of issues in fiscal federalism: the relationship between state and federal tax rates, the equilibrium levels of these taxes, the relevance of experience in federal countries for policy design in international settings, intergovernmental grants, and the assignment of tax powers among levels of government.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 45, No. 3, September 1998.
December 1, 1997
International Evidenceon the Determinants of Trade Dynamics
Description: This paper provides some new empirical perspectives on the relationship between international trade and macroeconomic fluctuations in industrial economies. First, a comprehensive set of stylized facts concerning fluctuations in trade variables and their determinants are presented. A measure of the quantitative importance of international trade for the propagation of domestic business cycles is then constructed, focusing on the role of external trade as a catalyst for cyclical recoveries. Finally, structural vector autoregression models are used to characterize the joint dynamics of output, exchange rates, and trade variables in response to different types of macroeconomic shocks.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 45, No. 3, September 1998.
December 1, 1997
An Econometric Analysis of the Determinants of Inflation in Turkey
Description: High and variable inflation has been a central feature of the Turkish economy since the 1970s. This paper seeks to shed some light on the determinants of inflation in Turkey by analyzing price determination within the framework of a multi-sector macroeconomic model during 1970–95. The main findings are that monetary variables (initially money, more recently the exchange rate) play a central role in the inflationary process, that public sector deficits contribute to inflationary pressures, and that inertial factors are quantitatively important. Policymakers’ commitment to active exchange rate depreciation on several occasions in the past 15 years has also contributed to the inflationary process.
December 1, 1997
Risk Management of Sovereign Assets and Liabilities
Description: In an environment of sizable and volatile capital flows and integrated international capital markets, large and unhedged net external sovereign liabilities expose countries to swings in international asset prices and to potential speculative currency attacks. The paper argues that an essential step in reducing emerging market vulnerability to such external shocks is to reform the institutional arrangements governing asset and liability management policies, so as to promote a transparent, publicly accountable, and professional incentive structure.
December 1, 1997
Speculative Attacks, Forward Market Intervention and the Classic Bear Squeeze
Description: A typical strategy used by speculators to launch an attack on a fixed exchange regime is the use of forward markets. Central banks also intervene in forward markets to counter speculation. This paper addresses the question of how an attack is launched on the forward market, and what the optimal policy response to such speculation is in the forward and spot markets. The paper also demonstrates how central banks can impose a bear squeeze on speculators. Recent events in South East Asian currency markets are interpreted within the framework of the model’s predictions.
December 1, 1997
Lessons From Systemic Bank Restructuring: A Survey of 24 Countries
Description: In recent decades, a wide range of countries have experienced banking problems. Their approaches to systemic bank restructuring have varied substantially. This paper analyzes a representative sample of 24 countries and provides a summary of policies judged to be successful. The sample countries were ranked by relative progress in resolving banking sector problems. Based on this ranking, the paper examines the effectiveness of institutional and regulatory measures, assesses the impact of accompanying macroeconomic policies, and examines the extent to which particular restructuring instruments contributed to success. Special emphasis is given to the role of the central bank.
December 1, 1997
Are Currency Crises Predictable?
Description: This paper studies whether exchange rate expectations and overvaluations are predictors of currency crises. The results suggest that overvaluation has predictive power in explaining crises. However, although expected depreciation obtained from survey data partially takes different measures of exchange rate misalignment into consideration, expectations fail to anticipate currency crises.