Working Papers
1997
December 1, 1997
Winner-Loser Reversals in National Stock Market Indices: Can they Be Explained?
Description: This paper examines possible explanations for “winner–loser reversals” in the national stock market indices of 16 countries. There is no evidence that loser countries are riskier than winner countries either in terms of standard deviations, covariance with the world market or other risk factors, or performance in adverse economic states of the world. While there is evidence that small markets are subject to larger reversals than large markets, perhaps because of some form of market imperfection, the reversals are not just a small-market phenomenon. The apparent anomaly of winner-loser reversals in national market indices therefore remains unresolved.
December 1, 1997
Evolution of Monetary Policy Instruments in Russia
Description: This paper analyzes the evolution of monetary policy in Russia, focusing on the period January 1992–December 1995. Special attention is given to the role of monetary policy instruments. Initially, policy was completely dominated by flows of credit from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (CBR) to the budget, to enterprises, and to other republics in the ruble area. Over time these flows have been reduced and indirect monetary instruments have become key elements of monetary policy implementation
December 1, 1997
A Decade of Civil Service Reform in Sub-Saharan Africa
Description: This paper assesses a decade of experience in civil service reform in a sample of 32 sub-Saharan African countries. Many countries have made an important start towards reducing excessive staffing levels and the nominal wage bill, but less progress has been made in decompressing salary differentials in favor of higher-grade staff. In the CFA franc zone countries, real wages fell sharply after the 1994 devaluation, but the wage bill relative to tax revenue is still high in many countries. There is a need to consolidate quantitative first-generation reforms that contribute to macroeconomic stabilization. Equally important is the need to make progress on qualitative second-generation reforms, especially remuneration and promotion policies that reward performance and measures to improve civil service management. Such policies will require strong political commitment by governments.
December 1, 1997
Is the Exchange Rate a Shock Absorber? the Case of Sweden
Description: This paper uses a structural vector autoregression representation of the Mundell-Flemming model to analyze the determinants of movements in Sweden’s real exchange rate. It finds that, while (supply and demand) shocks account for over 60 percent of the forecast error variance, comparable to several Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) countries, demand shocks account for a higher fraction of these real shocks in Sweden than in those core countries. If real demand shocks result from controllable macroeconomic policies, the cost of relinquishing the exchange rate is no higher, and may be lower, for Sweden than for most core EMU countries.
December 1, 1997
The Capital Structure of Listed Companies in Poland
Description: This paper examines the capital structure of listed firms in Poland, using firm-level panel data to study the determinants of leverage. Polish firms had extremely low leverage levels, suggesting a growing stock market and a potential reluctance of banks to grant loans to old and risky firms. The empirical exercise finds that large, new, foreign-owned firms, and firms with strong cash positions have higher levels of leverage. Finally, shareholder concentration has a neutral or even a beneficial influence on firm leverage. The nature of ownership may be primarily responsible for this finding.
December 1, 1997
The Bank of Canada's Monetary Policy Framework: Have Recent Changes Enhanced Central Bank Credibility?
Description: In recent years the Bank of Canada has made important changes in the way it conducts monetary policy. In particular, the bank has adopted explicit inflation targets and introduced significant changes to its operational framework designed to increase transparency and reduce market uncertainty. This paper examines the key issues associated with the recent changes in the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy framework and analyzes various indicators of central bank credibility.
December 1, 1997
Investment, Uncertainty, and Irreversibility in Ghana
Description: Panel data on Ghanaian manufacturing firms are used to test predictions from models of irreversible investment under uncertainty. Information on the entrepreneur’s subjective probability distribution over future demand for the firm’s products is used to construct the expected variance of demand, which is used as a measure of uncertainty. Empirical results support the prediction that firms wait to invest until the marginal revenue product of capital reaches a firm-specific hurdle level. Moreover, higher uncertainty raises the hurdle level that triggers investment, and uncertainty has a negative effect on investment levels that is greater for firms with more irreversible investment.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 45, No. 3, September 1998.
December 1, 1997
Regional Integration and Baltic Trade and Investment Performance
Description: This paper analyzes the role of regional arrangements in trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) performance in the Baltics. While progress with transition is a key determinant of trade and FDI performance, regional arrangements with Western Europe have helped develop trade and transfer of technology, but have not yet led to export-related foreign direct investment toward the European Union. The main reasons for this are policy uncertainties, need for more progress with transition, and restrictions in the trade agreements, especially on the European Union side. Intra-Baltic integration has not yet led to substantial trade and FDI growth between the Baltics.
December 1, 1997
Payment Arrears in the Gas and Electric Power Sectors of the Russian Federation and Ukraine
Description: This paper discusses payments arrears in the Russian Federation and Ukraine, with emphasis on the gas and electric power sectors. Payments arrears, which were triggered primarily by the dislocations experienced during the transition from a centrally planned to a market economy, have reached significant proportions in these two countries. Governments have aggravated the problem by not honoring their own bills and by condoning payments arrears outside the budget. The paper argues that the solution to the problem lies in the implementation of comprehensive systemic reforms and outlines possible measures.
December 1, 1997
The Real Effects of Monetary Policy in the European Union: What Are the Differences?
Description: The main finding of this paper is that the European Union (EU) countries fall into two broad groups according to the effects of monetary policy adjustments on economic activity. Estimates based on a vector autoregression model indicate that the full effects of a contractionary monetary shock on output in one group of EU countries (Austria, Belgium, Finland, Germany, Netherlands, and United Kingdom) take roughly twice as long to occur, but are almost twice as deep as in the other group (Denmark, France, Italy, Portugal, Spain, and Sweden). The paper discusses the implications of these results for the effective conduct of monetary policy in the euro area.