Working Papers
1998
April 1, 1998
Multiple Equilibrium, Variability, and the Development Process
Description: Per capita output is more volatile in middle-income economies than in both low-income and high-income economies. We examine this pattern in a two-period overlapping generations model with two productive sectors (a developed sector and a subsistence sector) and a credit sector. In the early and mature stages of development, there is a unique equilibrium, because labor and credit markets are cleared by a unique set of prices. In the middle stages of development, however, the model shows that markets can be cleared by a multiple set of prices. This multiplicity of equilibria arises as productive externalities are reflected in credit markets.
April 1, 1998
Interest Rate Spreads in the Eastern Caribbean
Description: This paper examines interest rate spreads in the Eastern Caribbean and seeks to explain why they are persistently high by comparison with other low-inflation countries. The paper concludes that operating costs appear to be a key determinant of observed interest rate spreads, giving rise to the policy recommendation that efforts to expand the market size of efficient banks might help pave the way for greater efficiency.
April 1, 1998
Competitiveness and the Evolution of the Real Exchange Rate in Chile
Description: This paper reviews the evolution of certain price and nonprice competitiveness indicators in Chile and concludes that the pecuniary loss of competitiveness associated with the appreciation of the peso since the late 1980s has been broadly offset by productivity gains and adjustments in factor intensity, particularly in the manufacturing sector. However, there may be limited room for further advances from that point, which gives new prominence to certain policy issues such as structural reforms to increase productivity, a reassessment of the tax treatment of the mining sector, and a rebalancing of the macroeconomic policy mix to dampen speculative capital inflows.
April 1, 1998
Fiscal Discipline and the Cost of Public Debt Service: Some Estimates for OECD Countries
Description: Is there any systematic explanation of variations in the cost of debt servicing over time and across countries? This paper examines the influence of fiscal variables on borrowing costs in a panel of OECD countries, showing that these variables have a significant role. In particular, an improvement of the primary fiscal balance is associated with a significant reduction in debt-servicing costs, amplifying the effects of primary adjustment on the fiscal position. A significant country-specific component remains, however; several explanations for this component are discussed, including debt management and market infrastructure.
April 1, 1998
The Design of Instruments for Government Finance in an Islamic Economy
Description: This paper presents perhaps the most viable approach for the design of an instrument of government finance (and monetary management) in an Islamic economy where conventional transactions based on an ex-ante promise of a risk-free rate of return are forbidden. Resources to finance government infrastructural and development projects can be mobilized by issuing a national participation paper and this instrument can also serve as an instrument of monetary management. The paper discusses various conceptional issues underpinning the introduction of such an instrument and methods of calculating a corresponding rate of return. In principle, this approach has been accepted by the Islamic Republic of Iran.
April 1, 1998
How Far Is Eastern Europe from Brussels?
Description: The current destination of Central and Eastern European countries—explicitly for some, implicitly for all—is Brussels. The concept of the distance from Brussels is multi-dimensional. One simple measure, not without theoretical and empirical justification, is physical distance. This paper’s focus, however, lies more in the distances in time and economic space. The paper first compares income gaps between Central and Eastern European and European Union (EU) countries, then evaluates recent economic performance in Central and Eastern Europe in light of EU standards. Finally; addresses the question of how long it will take the Central and Eastern European countries to close the income gap with EU countries.
Notes: This paper was presented at the Kiel Week Conference held in Kiel, June 26-27, 1996, and at a conference on "The European Union and Central and Eastern Europe" held in Liechtenstein on July 4-6, 1996.
April 1, 1998
The Canadian Agreement on Internal Trade: Developments and Prospects
Description: Under a federal system of government, the division of responsibilities between the federal, provincial/state, and local levels of government may create internal barriers to trade. To deal with this problem, the federal and provincial governments in Canada established the Agreement on Internal Trade (AIT). This paper takes stock of the achievements and shortcomings of the AIT. Because the internal barriers to trade being addressed by the AIT are not unique to Canada, the agreement presents a useful model for reform that could be emulated by other countries.
April 1, 1998
Trade Liberalization and Tax Reform in the Southern Mediterranean Region
Description: The European Union’s Association Agreements with several countries in the Southern Mediterranean Region (SMR) aim to promote deeper economic integration between the SMR and the EU by establishing a free trade area in twelve years. Because a large share of the SMR countries’ total imports comes from the EU, the removal of import tariffs could reduce budgetary revenue by the equivalent of 1 percent to 4 percent of individual countries’ GDP. This paper proposes tax and tariff reforms that would help generate the needed compensatory revenue and, more important in the long run, reduce the distortionary effects of the tax and tariff systems and underpin higher rates of sustainable growth.
April 1, 1998
The Relative Importance of Political and Economic Variables in Creditworthiness Ratings
Description: This study examines the relative importance of political and economic variables in the determination of a country’s standing in credit ratings provided by commercial rating agencies. It finds that creditworthiness appears to be determined primarily by economic variables. While including political events can improve the explanatory power of the regressions, the exclusion of political variables does not bias the parameter estimates for the effects of economic variables.
April 1, 1998
The Italian Labor Market: Stylized Facts, Institutions, and Directions for Reform
Description: This paper provides a synthesis of existing and new empirical perspectives on the structure of the Italian labor market, using data at different levels of disaggregation. The analysis indicates that aggregate data mask considerable disparities in labor market outcomes across regions and demographic groups. The evolutions of sectoral wage and employment structures also point to some dimensions of labor market rigidities. A micro data set with individual data is then used to highlight key structural problems that affect labor supply and demand. The implications of these different strands of empirical analysis for the formulation and effective implementation of labor market policy are then discussed.