Working Papers
1998
June 1, 1998
Financial Opening, Deposit Insurance, and Risk in a Model of Banking Competition
Description: This paper studies the impact of competition on the determination of interest rates and banks’ risk-taking behavior under different assumptions about deposit insurance and the dissemination of financial information. It finds that lower entry costs foster competition in deposit rate sand reduce banks’ incentives to limit risk exposure. Although higher insurance coverage amplifies this effect, two alternative arrangements (risk-based contributions to the insurance fund and public disclosure of financial information) help to reduce it. Moreover, uninsured but fully informed depositors and risk-based full deposit insurance yield the same equilibrium risk level, which is independent of entry costs. The welfare implications of the different arrangements are also explored.
June 1, 1998
North-South Trade: Is Africa Unusual?
Description: We estimate a gravity model to address the question of whether Africa’s bilateral trade with industrial countries is “unusual” compared with other developing country regions. Our main finding is that the unusually low level of African trade is explained by economic size, geographical distance, and population. This result holds after controlling for a country’s access to the sea, composition of exports, linguistic ties with industrial countries, and trade policies. If anything, the average African country tends to “overtrade” compared with developing countries in other regions, although the degree to which Africa overtrades has steadily declined over the past two-and-one-half decades.
June 1, 1998
Bank Lending and Interest Rate Changes in a Dynamic Matching Model
Description: This paper presents theory and evidence on the dynamic relationship between aggregate bank lending and interest rate changes. Theoretically, it proposes and solves a stochastic matching model where credit expansion and contraction are time consuming. It shows that the response of bank lending to changes in money market rates is likely to be asymmetric and depends crucially on two structural parameters: the speed at which new loans become available, and the speed at which banks recall existing loans. Empirically, it provides evidence that bank lending in Mexico and the United States responds asymmetrically to positive and negative shocks in money market rates.
June 1, 1998
Asymmetric Information and the Market Structure of the Banking Industry
Description: The paper analyzes the effects of informational asymmetries on the market structure of the banking industry in a multi-period model of spatial competition. All lenders face uncertainty with regard to borrowers’ creditworthiness, but, in the process of lending, incumbent banks gather proprietary information about their clients, acquiring an advantage over potential entrants. These informational asymmetries are an important determinant of the industry structure and may represent a barrier to entry for new banks. The paper shows that, in contrast with traditional models of horizontal differentiation, the steady-state equilibrium is characterized by a finite number of banks even in the absence of fixed costs.
June 1, 1998
Leading Indicators of Banking Crises: Was Asia Different?
Description: This paper examines episodes of the banking system distress and crisis in a large sample of countries. The empirical results identify several macroeconomic and financial variables as useful leading indicators. The main macroeconomic indicators were of limited value in predicting the Asian crises; the best warning signs were proxies for the vulnerability of the banking and corporate sector. Full-blown banking crises are shown to be more associated with external developments, and domestic variables are the main leading indicators of severe but contained banking distress.
June 1, 1998
The Effects of European Economic Integration on the Profitability of Industries
Description: This paper examines the effects of intensified international competition on industry profits in six European Union (EU) countries. The paper uses two methods to estimate industry profits. The traditional method uses accounting data to obtain a measure of gross price-average cost margins. The second method directly estimates markups of price over marginal cost using new empirical techniques. Import competition is found to have disciplined market power, regardless of the method used to estimate industry profits. From the analysis of the markups, there is evidence that this is due mainly to intra-EU import competition. The evidence for export discipline is much weaker.
June 1, 1998
Trading Blocs and Welfare: How Trading Bloc Members Are Affected by New Entrants
Description: This paper uses the three-country duopoly model to examine the effects of lowered trade barriers when a new entrant joins a trading bloc. There are two firms—a small-country firm and a large-country firm within the bloc—and three markets—two within and one (new entrant’s) outside the bloc. The analysis generally shows greater gains for the small-country than for the large-country firm. The small-country firm will export more to the external country than the large-country firm. But if tariffs decline, the export share of the large-country firm will increase relative to the small-country firm’s, though profits will improve more for the latter.
June 1, 1998
Financial Liberalization and Financial Fragility
Description: A study of 53 countries during 1980-95 finds that financial liberalization increases the probability of a banking crisis, but less so where the institutional environment is strong. In particular, respect for the rule of law, a low level of corruption, and good contract enforcement are relevant institutional characteristics. The data also show that, after liberalization, financially repressed countries tend to have improved financial development even if they experience a banking crisis. This is not true for financially restrained countries. This paper’s results support a cautious approach to financial liberalization where institutions are weak, even if macroeconomic stabilization has been achieved.
June 1, 1998
Selected Transition and Mediterranean Countries: An Institutional Primer on EMU and EU Relations
Description: Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) has a number of institutional implications for the transition countries of Central and Eastern Europe and selected Mediterranean countries that aspire to join the European Union (EU). After describing the current institutional framework for their relations with the EU, the paper examines two basic categories of institutional effects: those stemming from the need to satisfy the Maastricht convergence criteria before joining the euro area, and those stemming from the need to adopt the EU’s institutional and legal provisions in the area of EMU.
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