Working Papers
1998
August 1, 1998
Does the Long-Run Ppp Hypothesis Hold for Africa? Evidence From Panel Co-Integration Study
Description: This paper addresses whether parallel market exchange rates in Africa behave in the long run in a manner consistent with the purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis. A recent econometric method, the panel co-integration test, enables us to examine the long-run PPP hypothesis by pooling the time-series data of several countries. This approach is particularly useful when analyzing African countries, which often do not have long time series. Using pooled data for 16 African countries, the study concludes that the behavior of parallel market exchange rates in Africa is consistent with the long-run PPP hypothesis.
August 1, 1998
Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Trade Flows: Evidence From the European Union
Description: This paper analyzes the effects of exchange rate volatility on bilateral trade flows. Through use of a gravity model and panel data from western Europe, exchange rate uncertainty is found to have a negative effect on international trade. The results seem to be robust with respect to the particular measures representing exchange rate uncertainty. Particular attention is reserved for problems of simultaneous causality. The negative correlation between trade and bilateral volatility remains significant after controlling for the simultaneity bias. However, a Hausman test rejects the hypothesis of the absence of simultaneous causality.
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1998
July 1, 1998
Developing Countries and the Globalization of Financial Markets
Description: This paper analyzes the impact of the globalization of financial markets on developing and transition economies. Differences between the responses of competitive and imperfectly competitive banking sectors cause them to affect economic activity differently. While nonbank financial markets and institutions can help to increase the competitiveness of banking sectors, there are “gaps” in the institutions and market structures of developing and transition economies. Eliminating these gaps may reinforce financial market discipline in these countries. Some current international initiatives are outlined for enhancing financial system soundness; these emphasize the complementary roles of market discipline and official oversight in an environment of globalized markets.
July 1, 1998
Determinants of Growth in an Error: Correction Model for El Salvador
Description: An error-correction model identifies determinants of growth consistent with results from panel regressions based on a standard Cobb-Douglas production function for El Salvador for 1970-1995, with structural factors affecting the technology variable and macroeconomics and expectations explaining the deviations from the long-run trend. Consistency of the parameters is satisfactory, especially considering that half of the sample period was affected by a civil war, 40 percent of the working population migrated to foreign countries during that period, and the rapid process of economic reform after the advent of peace resulted in overlapping structural patterns.
July 1, 1998
Policy Responses to External Imbalances in Emerging Market Economies: Further Empirical Results
Description: A bivariate vector-autoregression (VAR) model is used to test causal relations between the current account and the capital account in four emerging market economies. The results show that high capital mobility could be a major cause of current account instability. Therefore, macroeconomic policy to restore external balance must deal directly with capital inflows. The paper recommends making nominal exchange rate sufficiently flexible to avoid inconsistencies between short-run and long-run real exchange rates; complementing credit tightening by fiscal restraint to reduce interest rate differentials; and strengthening reforms and surveillance of the financial system to prevent banks from excessive risk taking.
July 1, 1998
The Impact of Economic Securityon Bank Deposits and Investment
Description: This paper highlights the importance of institutions in explaining the variation of investment rates and of two measures of bank deposits across countries. A general index of economic security is created for 130 countries. Its explanatory power is compared with measures of specific institutional arrangements. For investment as well as for bank deposits, specific institutional factors are shown to be highly significant and outperform the general index.