Working Papers
1998
August 1, 1998
Tax Smoothing in a Financially Repressed Economy: Evidence from India
Description: India has a long history of running fiscal deficits. Two broad considerations motivate a government to run a deficit: tax smoothing and tax tilting. This paper tests a version of Barro’s tax-smoothing model, using Indian data for the period 1951-52 to 1996-97. The empirical results indicate that the central government of India has tax-smoothed, while the regional governments of India have not. The paper also finds evidence of tax tilting, reflected in financial repression, which has led to the accumulation of excessive public liabilities.
August 1, 1998
Capital Structures and Portfolio Composition During Banking Crisis: Lessons from Argentina 1995
Description: This paper constructs a theoretical framework that rationalizes banks’ short- and long-run adjustment dynamics—in portfolio composition and in the capital structure—following a period of financial distress. The model captures stylized facts about banks’ behavior following a shock to the capital base—namely, the rush to liquidity and credit crunch. Bank panel data show that Argentine domestic retail banks underwent a period of adjustment of six quarters following the Mexican devaluation crisis, reducing their risk-exposure since, owing to bank capital scarcity, depositors became less prone to tolerate bank default risk. Foreign-owned banks suffered a milder shock and adjusted immediately.
August 1, 1998
The Demise of the Nation State?
Description: The globalization of economic activities that is characterizing many economies raises questions about the future of the nation state. This paper discusses this trend and shows that cross-frontiers spillovers have become more frequent and have increased the need for international agreements and international organizations to deal with them. It concludes that a continuation of current trends would increase the importance of subnational government while reducing (in the economic sphere) the importance of national governments.
August 1, 1998
Macroeconomic Performance Under Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes: Does Wage Indexation Matter?
Description: This paper reexamines the macroeconomic effects of wage indexation in an open economy under alternative exchange rate regimes. The main finding is that, once the lags in actual indexation rules are considered, wage indexation affects output behavior substantially less than posited in the previous academic literature. This result implies that the academic view that wage indexation makes a flexible exchange rate generally preferable is unwarranted and suggests that the choice of exchange rate regime with and without wage indexation depends on similar factors. The analysis also reveals that the net effects of wage indexation on macroeconomic stability are ambiguous.
August 1, 1998
Deviations From Uncovered Interest Parity: A Global Guide to Where the Action Is
Description: Ex-post deviations from uncovered interest parity (UIP) – realized differences between dollar returns on identical assets of different currencies – equal the real interest differential plus real exchange rate growth. Among industrialized countries, UIP deviations are largely explained by unanticipated real exchange rate growth, but among developing countries, real interest differentials are “where the action is.” This observation is due to the greater variability of inflation in developing countries, but may also stem from higher and more variable risks and capital controls in these countries. Also, among developing countries with moderate inflation, offsetting comovements of real interest differentials and real exchange growth support the sticky-price hypothesis.
August 1, 1998
Impact of European Union Assocation Agreements on Mediterranean Countries
Description: By establishing free trade for industrial products in 12 years, the European Union’s Association Agreements with countries in the Mediterranean region seek to promote accelerated economic growth. This paper reviews the literature and evaluates the economic benefits and costs for Tunisia, Morocco, Lebanon, Egypt, and Jordan. It concludes that the benefits could be substantial, but only if accompanied by deep supplementary reforms, including extending trade liberalization to services and agriculture and on a multilateral basis, improving the environment for foreign direct investment, ensuring an adequate fiscal and exchange rate policy response, and strengthening European Union assistance.
August 1, 1998
Market-Based Policy Instruments for Systemic Bank Restructuring
Description: Since the early 1980s, well over 100 countries have experienced systemic bank insolvencies. An important innovation among the resulting policies for reestablishing bank soundness has been the reliance on market-based instruments and policies, in contrast to the largely non-market-oriented approach taken in the 1930s during the last big wave of banking crises. This paper surveys and assesses market-based policy instruments employed to overcome systemic bank problems. Considerations regarding the design and mix of instruments as well as cost-sharing arrangements are shown to be key aspects of effective bank restructuring. Selected country examples are used to illustrate best practices.
August 1, 1998
Welfare Cost of (Low) Inflation: A General Equilibrium Perspective
Description: This paper provides general equilibrium estimates of the steady-state welfare gains of lowering inflation from a low level to close to price stability, using an overlapping-generations growth model. Money demand is modeled on the basis that real money balances are a factor of production. Assuming a standard Fisher equation modified by the presence of an income tax, it is found that inflation unambiguously reduces capital intensity, drives up the before-tax real rate of return to capital, and unambiguously imposes a life-time welfare cost. This welfare cost is, however, quantitatively very modest (under 0.2 percent of GDP annually) within reasonable ranges of all parameter values.
August 1, 1998
Interest Spreads in Banking: Costs, Financial Taxation, Market Power, and Loan Quality in the Colombian Case 1974–96
Description: This paper examines the determinants of the high intermediation spread observed in the Colombian banking sector for over two decades. A reduced-form equation is estimated on the basis of a bank profit maximization model that permits a decomposition into operational costs, financial taxation, market power, and loan quality. Although the average spread did not change between the pre liberalization (1974-88) and post liberalization (1991-96) periods, its composition did, with market power being significantly reduced and the responsiveness to loan quality increased. Colombia’s progress in reducing operational costs and financial taxation and improving loan quality, will determine whether it can narrow the spread.
August 1, 1998
Considerations in Reducing Inflation From Low to Lower Levels
Description: In recent years, many countries have successfully reduced their inflation rates to relatively low levels of 2 to 3 percent. The question then arises as to whether it would be desirable to move to even lower rates of inflation. The paper examines the benefits and costs of moving from low inflation to even lower inflation by drawing together recent work on this issue. Once a country has decided to move to an even lower rate of inflation, the question then becomes whether it would be better to achieve this objective through inflation targeting or price-level targeting. The paper critically reviews the arguments for both approaches.