Working Papers
1998
December 1, 1998
Migration and Pension
Description: Migrants, being relatively low earners, are net beneficiaries of the welfare state. However, this paper uses a dynamic model to show that because of migrants’ positive influence on the pension system, which is an important pillar of any welfare state, migration could be beneficial to all income (high and low) and age (old and young) groups.
0001
January 1, 0001
$name
January 1, 0001
$name
January 1, 0001
$name
January 1, 0001
$name
January 1, 0001
$name
1998
November 1, 1998
The Impact of Human Capital on Growth: Evidence from West Africa
Description: This paper analyzes the impact of human capital on growth, on the basis of refined calculations of human capital, and with a focus on West Africa. Using a growth-accounting methodology, it distinguishes the sources of growth between the accumulation of factors of production and changes in production intensity or efficiency. Private capital is found to be particularly important to growth, but human capital appears not to be significant. The paper also identifies the terms of trade, trade openness, the government deficit, and the share of government investment in total investment as key policy variables affecting growth.
November 1, 1998
Determinants of Inflation, Exchange Rate, and Output in Nigeria
Description: This paper presents a macroeconomic model of the Nigerian economy. The long-run relationships pertaining to the markets for money, foreign exchange, and (non-oil) output are estimated. Subsequently, dynamic equations are estimated for the price level, the real exchange rate, and output. The results are instrumental in explaining the dramatic developments on the foreign exchange market during 1983-86 and 1992-94, the secular depreciation of the real exchange rate since 1985, and the rise and fall of inflation during 1991-97. The methodology could usefully be applied to other economies whose exports are insensitive to exchange rate movements (e.g., other oil-based economies).
November 1, 1998
Fiscal Effects of the 1993 Colombian Pension Reform
Description: This study examines the fiscal impact of the pension reform adopted in Colombia in 1993, which established a fully funded, privately administered pension system alongside the existing pay-as-you-go state scheme. The reform increased the contribution rate and reduced the benefits of the state scheme. However, the fiscal cost of the reform was high, estimated at 1.5 to 2.3 percent of GDP annually over the next three decades. This reflects concessions made to special groups of public servants, the delay in making effective the new retirement conditions, and the minimum pension guarantee. A new generation of pension reforms needs to be adopted.
November 1, 1998
Demand for Money in Mozambique: Was There a Structural Break?
Description: The paper provides estimates of an error-correction model of the demand for narrow money (M1) and broad money (M2) in Mozambique. In addition, it assesses whether the rapid growth in money balances during 1996–97 represents a structural break or can be associated with the rapidly expanding economic activity and lower opportunity costs of holding money. In contrast with several studies of economies at a similar level of development as Mozambique, the paper obtains statistically significant coefficients for both financial and real explanatory variables. In this connection, it successfully includes the yield of foreign instruments (expressed in local currency) as one of the key explanatory variables.