Working Papers
1999
December 1, 1999
The Efficiency of Education Expenditure in Portugal
Description: This paper assesses the efficiency of education expenditure in Portugal and delineates a possible agenda for reform. Portugal’s low educational performance has coincided with the highest level of primary and secondary education expenditure to GDP in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), suggesting considerable inefficiency. Empirical results from the application of a nonparametric technique for production frontier estimation (Free Disposable Hull analysis) support this view. Among the reforms that could be considered to raise educational efficiency are the adoption of a goal-oriented management and incentive system; establishment of minimum student/teacher ratios; and an easing of employment and work rules governing public school teachers.
December 1, 1999
Redistribution Through Public Employment: The Case of Italy
Description: This paper examines the regional distribution of public employment in Italy and documents two sets of facts. The first is the use of public employment as a subsidy from the North to the less wealthy South. We calculate that about half of the wage bill in the South of Italy can be identified as a subsidy, with both the size of public employment and wage levels used as a redistributive device. The second set of facts concerns the negative effects of subsidized public employment on individuals’ attitudes toward job search, education, and “risk-taking” activities. We conclude that heavy reliance on public employment distorts incentives and discourages the development of market activities in the South.
December 1, 1999
Fiscal Federalism and Government Size in Transition Economies: The Case of Moldova
Description: This paper examines the relationship between fiscal decentralization—the assignment of revenue sources and expenditure functions across government levels—and government size in Moldova. The empirical results—based on data for a cross-section of Moldovan subnational governments in 1998—suggest that fiscal decentralization is associated with larger subnational governments and that the country’s revenue-sharing system imposes a constraint on subnational spending. Moldova is currently undergoing unprecedented reform of its system of intergovernmental fiscal relations, and consolidation of its local government. This reform package is crucial to ensure that decentralization does not increase the size of government.
December 1, 1999
Dominance Testing of Social Sector Expenditures and Taxes in Africa
Description: This paper examines the progressivity of social sector expenditures and taxes in eight sub-Saharan African countries. It uses dominance tests to determine whether health and education expenditures redistribute resources to the poor. The paper finds that social services are poorly targeted. Among the services examined, primary education tends to be most progressive, and university education is least progressive. The paper finds that many taxes are progressive as well as efficient, including some broad-based taxes such as the VAT and wage taxation. Taxes on kerosene and exports appear to be the only examples of regressive taxes.
December 1, 1999
Central Bank Independence and the Conduct of Monetary Policy in the United Kingdom
Description: The U.K. monetary policy framework, which combines inflation targeting with operational independence, provides a suitable arrangement for focused and credible monetary policy. However, potential weaknesses could result from features that have not yet been fully tested: the credibility and transparency of the inflation forecasts, which form the core of policy decisions, have diminished as a result of independence; and the framework could encourage excessive activism and frequent changes in interest rates. Although policy coordination could also suffer from independence, the new partly rules-based fiscal and monetary regimes will promote overall macroeconomic stability.
December 1, 1999
Ownership of Capital in Monetary Economies and the Inflation Tax on Equity
Description: Financial instruments are subject to inflation taxes on the wealth they represent and on the nominal income flows they provide. This paper explicitly introduces financial instruments into the standard stochastic growth model with money and production and shows that the value of the firm in this case is equal to the firm’s capital stock divided by inflation. The resulting asset-pricing conditions indicate that the effect of inflation on asset returns differs from the effects found in other papers by the addition of a significant wealth tax.
December 1, 1999
Rethinking Subnational Taxes: A New Look At Tax Assignment
Description: The assignment of revenues in most developing and transitional countries to the central government has arguably facilitated irresponsible behavior by some subnational governments. One way to relieve this problem is to strengthen subnational tax regimes. The paper proposes two approaches to accomplish such strengthening in developing countries. The first—most applicable to large countries with important regional governments—is to establish subnational value-added taxes (VATs); the second is to replace the various unsatisfactory state and local taxes imposed on business by a low-rate value-added tax levied on the basis of income (production, origin) rather than consumption (destination).
December 1, 1999
Multiple Equilibria, Contagion, and the Emerging Market Crises
Description: The paper surveys the types of models producing multiple equilibria in financial markets. It argues that such models are consistent with observed phenomena, such as the greater volatility of financial asset prices than of macroeconomic fundamentals. Alternative explanations are compared with the stylized facts concerning capital flows, portfolio shifts, and exchange rate crises. Implications for crisis prediction and prevention are then discussed.
December 1, 1999
Income Distribution, Informal Safety Nets, and Social Expenditures in Uganda
Description: Inequality in Uganda rose during 1989–95, although this rise moderated in 1993–95. In 1993–95, real food consumption became more equal. Regional and urban-rural disparities in income and variations in income accruing to individuals with different educational levels principally explain “between group inequality.” While informal safety nets appear to work for Ugandan middle-class families, a lack of mutual insurance among poor production workers and farmers accentuates the inequality trends. An expansion of formal safety nets would help this segment of the population. The intrasectoral allocation and benefit incidence of expenditures on education and health can be improved to reduce inequality.
December 1, 1999
The Suitability of ASEAN for a Regional Currency Arrangement
Description: This paper examines the costs, benefits, preconditions, and implications of an Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) regional currency arrangement that is assumed to culminate in a regional currency. On economic criteria, ASEAN appears less suited for a regional currency arrangement than Europe before the Maastricht Treaty, although the difference is not large. The transition to European Monetary Union (EMU) indicates that the path toward a common currency is fraught with difficulty. A firm political commitment would seem to be vital to ensuring that an attempt to form a regional currency arrangement is not viewed as simply another fixed exchange rate regime, open to speculative crises.