Working Papers
2000
January 1, 2000
Bad Dreams Under Alternative Anchors: Are the Consequences Different?
Description: Using a simple model, this paper shows how a strict monetary rule exhibits characteristics similar to those of an exchange rate anchor, in terms of a lack of robustness in the presence of adverse expectations (“bad dreams”). More specifically, as an anticipated devaluation under an exchange rate rule leads to well-known contractionary effects, an anticipated increase in the money stock under a monetary rule, though initially expansionary, becomes contractionary when these expectations are not validated. This suggests that much of the criticism of an exchange rate anchor implicitly considers not another rule but rather, discretion as the alternative.
January 1, 2000
The Interest Rate-Exchange Rate Nexus in the Asian Crisis Countries
Description: Sharp exchange rate depreciations in the East Asian crisis countries (Indonesia, Korea, and Thailand) raised doubts about the efficacy of increasing interest rates to defend the currency. Using a standard monetary model of exchange rate determination, this paper shows that tighter monetary policy was in fact associated with an appreciation of the exchange rate. Moreover, there is little evidence of higher real interest rates contributing to a widening of the risk premium.
January 1, 2000
Pension System Viability and Reform Alternatives in the Czech Republic
Description: The finances of the Czech pension system have deteriorated markedly in recent years and the aging population will add further strains in the future. The system is also burdened by significant distortions and disincentive effects. This paper assesses the current pay-as-you-go (PAYG) system, including its long-run viability, and discusses reform options. It concludes that alterations to the basic PAYG parameters can go a long way toward addressing the problems, although more systemic changes—such as pre-funding, strengthening the link between contributions and benefits, and diverting part of the pension contributions to a mandatory, private pension savings pillar—could also help.
January 1, 2000
Taxes and Tradable Permits As Instruments for Controlling Pollution: Theory and Practice
Description: This paper examines the relative merits of two dominant economic instruments for reducing pollution—”green” taxes and tradable permits. Theoretically, the two instruments share many similarities, and on balance, neither seems preferable to the other. In practice, however, most countries have relied more on taxes than on permits to control pollution. The analysis suggests a number of lessons to be learned from country experiences regarding the design and implementation of both instruments. While many, particularly European countries, currently have long-term programs involving environmental taxes, a willingness to experiment with tradable permits seems to be growing, especially given the Kyoto protocol emission targets.
January 1, 2000
Globalization and the Future of Social Protection
Description: Social protection in industrial countries has been provided through regulations, tax expenditures, and public spending. This paper argues that globalization will affect governments’ ability to continue providing this social protection at the level of recent decades. Specifically, tax competition among jurisdictions, ballooning electronic commerce, and increased mobility of the factors of production will likely cause significant falls in tax revenue in future years. The paper concludes that the welfare states need to look for alternative ways to provide social protection.
January 1, 2000
Public Capital and Output Growth in Portugal: An Empirical Analysis
Description: The paper investigates the growth effects of public capital in Portugal using annual data for the period 1965-95. Both a production function and a vector autoregressive model are estimated. Public capital is shown to be a significant long-term determinant of output growth. The size of the estimated production elasticity indicates, in line with studies for other countries, a substantial growth payoff from public investment. Disaggregating public capital shows that investment related to, among other things, roads, railways, and airports is more productive than public investment in other major categories.
January 1, 2000
Deposit-Refundon Labor: A Solution to Equilibrium Unemployment?
Description: The paper studies the employment effects of a deposit-refund scheme on labor in a simple search-theoretic model of the labor market. It is shown that if a firm pays a deposit to the government when it fires a worker, to be refunded when it employs the same or another worker, the vacancy rate increases and the unemployment rate declines. However, the scheme introduces rigidities in the labor market that may be undesirable in countries wanting to liberalize their labor markets.
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