Working Papers
2000
March 1, 2000
Using Credit Ratings for Capital Requirementson Lending to Emerging Market Economies: Possible Impact of a New Basel Accord
Description: The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision has proposed linking capital requirements for bank loans to ratings by commercial credit rating agencies. Estimates for 20 emerging market economies show that sovereign ratings react procyclically to crisis indicators. Ratings deteriorate if the real effective exchange rate depreciates, in contrast with the positive effect on overall debt service capacity depreciations are normally supposed to have. Simulations show that linking capital requirements to ratings would have drastically increased these requirements during the crisis periods after decreasing them in the run up to the crises. Simulations suggest modest efficiency gains of using sovereign credit ratings for capital requirements on emerging market lending.
March 1, 2000
Income Distribution and Tax and Government Social Spending Policies in Developing Countries
Description: This paper reviews income distribution in developing (and transition) countries in recent decades. On average, before-tax income distribution in developing countries is less unequal than in industrial countries. However, unlike industrial countries, developing countries in general have not been able to use tax and transfer policies effectively to reduce income inequality. During the 1980s and 1990s, many developing countries experienced an increase in income inequality. The government health care and primary and secondary education programs in developing countries are not well targeted, but their incidence tends to be progressive.
March 1, 2000
Contagion, Monsoons, and Domestic Turmoil in Indonesia: A Case Study in the Asian Currency Crisis
Description: This paper investigates whether Indonesia’s recent currency crisis was due to domestic fundamentals, common external shocks (“monsoons”), or contagion from neighboring countries. Markov-switching models attribute speculative pressure on Indonesia’s currency to domestic political and financial factors and contagion from speculative pressures in Thailand and Korea. In particular, the results from a time-varying transition probability Markov-switching model (which overcomes some drawbacks of previous methods) show that inclusion of exchange rate pressures from Thailand and Korea in the transition probabilities improves the conditional probabilities of crisis in Indonesia. There is also evidence of contagion in the stock market.
March 1, 2000
Monetary and Fiscal Coordination in Small Open Economies
Description: This paper is concerned with the design of institutional arrangements for low inflation in small open economies. In the real world of information asymmetries, uncertain expectations and changeable preferences, it is not enough to create an autonomous and publicly accountable central bank. In addition, the central bank and the treasury must work together on the design, implementation, monitoring and, when necessary, the revision of macroeconomic policy, and on providing the public with information on ongoing economic developments and interpretation of the macroeconomic strategy.
March 1, 2000
Comparative Macroeconomic Dynamics in the Arab World: A Panel Var Approach
Description: The paper presents a comparative analysis of macroeconomic dynamics of 18 Arab countries based on a panel vector autogression estimation. Comparing growth performance, fiscal and current account developments in these countries, the study concludes that (1) in the short run, external and country-specific factors play an almost equal role in explaining macroeconomic fluctuations, but in the long run external factors dominate; (2) on average, program countries are less vulnerable to adverse exogeneous shocks than nonprogram countries; (3) to mitigate the negative impact of an external shock, domestic policy response should be consistent with the size of the shock.
March 1, 2000
The Pros and Cons of Full Dollarization
Description: We analyze the costs and benefits of full dollarization compared to its closest alternative, a currency board, quantifying for Argentina where possible. Potential advantages include lower borrowing costs and deeper integration into world markets. One cost is the transfer of seigniorage to the United States. The country may also lose the “exit option” to devalue in the face of major shocks. Similarly, even a country with a currency board may lose some ability to act as lender of last resort to the banking system. We review how various country characteristics influence the balance of arguments.
March 1, 2000
The Impact of Ethnic Heterogeneityon the Quantity and Quality of Public Spending
Description: The paper investigates empirically the impact of ethnic heterogeneity on the amount of public spending on health and education and the quality, or “technical efficiency” of spending. While it finds partial evidence for the claim that more heterogeneous societies spend less on public goods, it suggests that heterogeneity significantly affects the efficiency of public expenditure outcomes in terms of social indicators. The results suggest that the impact of heterogeneity on public expenditure outcomes is not just a public choice problem, but also an issue of “technical efficiency.”
March 1, 2000
Compliance with IMF Program Indicators and Growth in Transition Economies
Description: This paper makes use of the IMF’s Database for Monitoring Fund Arrangements (MONA) to investigate whether transition countries that more successfully implement the conditionality of IMF programs tend to show a better performance on recovery and growth. It is not possible to determine a clear-cut relationship between the index that determines the level of compliance with structural benchmarks in IMF programs and growth. However, the paper finds a definite, positive relationship between the index of compliance with performance criteria and growth, even after controlling for the extent of stabilization of the transition countries.
March 1, 2000
The International Monetary System in the (Very) Long Run
Description: This paper takes stock of the evolution of the international monetary system over the last thousand years. Several points stand out from the analysis. One is the reluctance of governments to embrace radical changes in international monetary relations. Another is the conflict between external and domestic objectives over the cycle, which has been a source of significant tension in the industrial core through much of this century, is now becoming a significant issue for developing countries. Finally, recent developments represent a return to the more market-driven international monetary system that characterized the better part of the preceeding millennium.
March 1, 2000
Concordance in Business Cycles
Description: We study the properties of a test that determines whether two time series comove. The test computes a simple nonparametric statistic for “concordance,” which describes the proportion of time that the cycles of two series spend in the same phase. We establish the size and power properties of this test. As an illustration, the procedures are applied to output series from selected major industrial countries. We find limited evidence of widespread concordance for these countries.