Working Papers
2000
May 1, 2000
Financial Institutions, Financial Contagion, and Financial Crises
Description: Financial crises are endogenized through corporate and interbank market institutions. Single-bank financing leads to a pooling equilibrium in the interbank market. With private information about one’s own solvency, the best illiquid banks will not borrow but rather will liquidate some premature assets. The withdrawals of the best banks from the interbank market may lead more solvent but illiquid banks to withdraw from the market, until the interbank market collapses. However, multi-bank financing leads to a separating equilibrium in the interbank market. Thus, bank runs are limited to illiquid and insolvent banks, and idiosyncratic shocks never trigger a contagious bank run.
May 1, 2000
Bank Failures and Fiscal Austerity: Policy Presecriptions for a Developing Country
Description: This work employs a dynamic general equilibrium model to evaluate the causes and implications of bank insolvencies. The model is applied to stylized data from several South Asian countries. It derives conclusions about policy instruments designed to alleviate the impact of insolvencies. Firms are subject to intertemporal solvency conditions, and the public withdraws deposits when borrowers default. If banks optimize by restricting credit to risky borrowers, these failures can be partially avoided. Numerical simulations conclude that the combination of compensating monetary policy and restrictive fiscal policy offers the best way of responding to a bank crisis caused by exogenous shocks.
May 1, 2000
Spillovers Through Banking Centers: A Panel Data Analysis
Description: To test the role of bank lending in transmitting currency crisis we examine a panel of BIS data on bank flows to 30 emerging markets disaggregated by 11 banking centers. We find that bank exposures to a crisis country help predict bank flows in third countries after the Mexican and Asian crisis, but not after the Russian crisis. In the latter, there is evidence of a generalized outflow from emerging markets, rather than outflows linked to prior exposure to Russia.
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2000
April 1, 2000
Sex Discrimination and Growth
Description: This paper argues that sex discrimination is an inefficient practice. We model sex discrimination as the complete exclusion of females from the labor market or as the exclusion of females from managerial positions. The former implies a reduction in GDP per capita; the latter distorts the allocation of talent and lowers economic growth. Both imply lower female-to-male schooling ratios. Our model predicts a convex relationship between nondiscrimination and growth. Although discrimination is difficult to measure, it will be reflected in schooling differentials. We present evidence based on cross-country regressions that is consistent with a convex relationship between schooling differentials and growth.
April 1, 2000
Seasonality and Capacity: An Application to Italy
Description: Information on seasonal frequencies can provide valuable insights for understanding economic fluctuations. This is particularly true for Italy, where the variability of production in manufacturing is extremely high and almost entirely due to seasonal factors. This paper discusses the option of exogenous seasonality resulting from changes in underlying technology and preferences, versus the possibility of endogenous seasonality arising because of synergies across agents. It then highlights the size of the seasonally-driven capacity slack and discusses its relevance from a welfare standpoint.
April 1, 2000
Emergency Liquidity Support Facilities
Description: This paper discusses operational aspects of official emergency liquidity support to individual institutions under stress. It argues that properly designed lending procedures, clearly laid-out authority and accountability, as well as disclosures rules, will promote financial stability, reduce moral hazard, and protect the lender of last resort from undue political pressure. Although there may well be good reasons to maintain ambiguity over the conditions for assistance, there are important advantages for developing, and for transition economies to follow a rule-based approach by setting out ex ante the necessary conditions for support, while maintaining that meeting such conditions is not sufficient for receiving support.
April 1, 2000
Rural Poverty in Developing Countries: Issues and Policies
Description: In most developing countries, poverty is more widespread and severe in rural than in urban areas. The author reviews some important aspects of rural poverty and draws key implications for public policy. He presents a policy framework for reducing poverty, taking into account the functional differences and overlap between the rural poor. Several policy options are delineated and explained, including stable management of the macroeconomic environment, transfer of assets, investment in and access to the physical and social infrastructure, access to credit and jobs, and provision of safety nets. Finally, some guideposts are identified for assessing strategies to reduce rural poverty.