Working Papers
2000
June 1, 2000
Money Demand in Guyana
Description: This paper analyzes broad money demand (M2) in Guyana from January 1990 to September 1999; a period marked by deep transformations aimed at shifting Guyana from a centralized to a market economy. The paper develops a stable error-correction model based on a long-run cointegrating vector of money demand. The latter establishes that real money demand is determined in the long run by real income, interest rates, and the exchange rate. The results also show the existence of strong exchange rate-induced inflation anticipations that are typical to Guyana.
June 1, 2000
Real Exchange Rate Response to Capital Flows in Mexico: An Empirical Analysis
Description: This study shows that in Mexico there is a long-run relationship between the real exchange rate and capital inflows, the external terms of trade, and productivity in the manufacturing sector. A once-and-for-all unit increase in the ratio of quarterly capital inflow to quarterly (annualized) GDP causes a long-run real appreciation of the peso of about 12 percent. The analysis also reveals a structural break in 1995, which coincides with the change to a floating exchange rate arrangement, and an overvaluation of the peso in real terms on the eve of the end–1994 crisis in the range of 12 to 25 percent.
June 1, 2000
Managing Financial Crises: The Experience in East Asia
Description: The Asian financial crisis of 1997-98 was one of the most dramatic economic events of recent times, which raised many questions regarding the appropriate policy response to financial crises. This paper reviews the experience of this crisis, focusing on the overall strategy of crisis management and the way that strategy was implemented, including with regard to official and private financing, structural reforms, and monetary and fiscal policies.
June 1, 2000
Globalization and Catching-Up: From Recession to Growth in Transition Economies
Description: The transitional recession in countries of Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union has lasted much longer than expected. The legacy of the past and recent policy mistakes have both contributed to the slow progress. As structural reforms and gradual institution building have taken hold, the post-socialist economies have started to recover, with some leading countries building momentum toward faster growth. There is a possibility that in the wider context of globalization several of these emerging market economies will be able to catch up with the more advanced industrial economies in a matter of one or two generations.
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2000
May 1, 2000
Stock Returns and Output Growth in Emerging and Advanced Economies
Description: This paper studies the correlation between output growth and lagged stock returns in a panel of emerging market economies and advanced economies. It finds that the correlation is as strong in emerging market economies as in advanced economies. Asset prices therefore contain valuable information to forecast output also in emerging market economies. Moreover, the paper finds that the strength of the correlation between output growth and lagged stock returns is significantly related to a number of stock market characteristics, such as the number of listed domestic companies and initial public offerings and, especially, a high market capitalization to GDP ratio and English legal origin.
May 1, 2000
Capital Mobility and the Output-Inflation Tradeoff
Description: Identifying determinants of the output-inflation tradeoff has long been a key issue in business cycle research. We provide evidence that in countries with greater restrictions on capital mobility, a given reduction in the inflation rate is associated with a smaller loss in output. This result is shown to be consistent with theoretical presumption from a version of the Mundell-Fleming model. Restrictions on capital mobility are measured using the IMF’s Annual Report on Exchange Rate Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions. Estimates of the output-inflation tradeoff are taken from previous studies, viz., Lucas (1973) and Ball, Mankiw and Romer (1988).
May 1, 2000
Centripetal forces in China's Economic Take-Off
Description: This paper uses provincial time series data from China to empirically investigate two propositions relating to economic development: (i) that economic takeoff is associated with technological transfer through foreign direct investment (FDI); and (ii) that takeoff is accompanied, at least in the short term, by widening income inequality. The results indicate that FDI flows have increased the rate of convergence in per capita incomes across China’s provinces. However, the pattern of FDI, which has gone mainly to the relatively wealthy provinces, has caused different provinces to converge to different steady states.