Working Papers
2000
June 1, 2000
Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization: A Model of Financial Fragility
Description: Interactions between banks and open capital account are investigated as rationalizations for empirical regularities characterizing disinflation programs anchored by the exchange rate. The financial system is characterized by bank dominance and lending externality – banks do not internalize the effect of their lending on other banks’ information about potential borrowers. Model dynamics simulation shows that remonetization in the wake of disinflation increases loanable funds supply and translates into bank credit expansion financed by capital inflows. A credit-driven boom results, accompanied by overvaluation and current account deficits generating financial fragilities and vulnerability to a shock that can trigger banking and balance-of-payments crises.
June 1, 2000
Convergence of Per Capita Output Levels Across Regions of Bangladesh, 1982-97
Description: This paper has examined the phenomenon of convergence of per capita output levels across regions of Bangladesh during 1982–97. The main finding is that most of the regions of Bangladesh experienced strong convergence of per capita output levels during 1982–91. There are two other findings within the domain of convergence. First, a few poorer regions of the country did not demonstrate any output convergence for the full or part of the sample period. Second, no evidence has been found for regional convergence of per capita output levels during 1991–97 that coincided with opening up the economy.
June 1, 2000
External Sector Reform and Public Enterprise Restructuring
Description: This paper explores the linkages between external sector reforms and public enterprise restructuring, paying attention to the role of the financial sector in ensuring the success of these reforms in the context of a comprehensive medium-term structural adjustment program. It discusses the arguments made in the academic literature on this issue, and analyzes how some countries—namely Algeria, Egypt, and Poland—have tackled reforms in these areas.
June 1, 2000
Fiscal Reform Over Ten Years of Transition
Description: This paper analyzes fiscal reforms in transition economies during the decade leading up to 1998. The paper argues that macroeconomic stabilization, price liberalization and privatization—the core reforms visualized by the shock therapy approach—are necessary but not sufficient conditions for a complete transition to a market economy. Further deep changes—such as the creation of new fiscal institutions, changes in incentives and processes, and changes in the role of government—are needed.
June 1, 2000
Global Financial Crises: Institutions and Incentives
Description: Increasing emphasis has been placed on the need for an effective lender of last resort for sovereign states and on procedures for sovereign debt restructuring to help cope with global financial crises. Where private creditors use short-term debt to check sovereign debtor’s moral hazard, there is the risk of self-fulfilling crises. In this context, we conclude that the proposal of the Meltzer Commission—for unconditional financial support, but only to states that pre-qualify—could be the source of increased instability. After discussing analogies with private sector arrangements, we compare the operations of the existing Paris Club with proposed Chapter 11 style procedures.
June 1, 2000
Do Asset Prices in Transition Countries Contain Information About Future Economic Activity?
Description: There is ample empirical evidence for developed economies that asset prices contain information about future economic developments. But is this also the case in transition economies? Using a panel of monthly data for the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Russia, Slovakia, and Slovenia for the period 1994-1999 it is shown that historical values for interest rates, exchange rates, and stock prices signal future movements in real economic activity. This result has significant implications for policymakers, and a composite leading indicator based on the three asset prices is presented, which contains information about the future development of economic activity.
June 1, 2000
International Spillovers of Macroeconomic Shocks: A Quantitative Exploration
Description: This paper provides a quantitative exploration of international spillovers of macroeconomic shocks among the major industrial economies. The particular topical example analyzed here concerns the possible effects on the industrial economies of adverse shocks to the current U.S. economic expansion. The potential spillover effects of U.S. shocks to other industrial economies are found to be quite large. Extant economic conditions, particularly the low levels of nominal interest rates and the consequent possibility of liquidity traps in countries such as Japan, could significantly magnify these spillover effects.
June 1, 2000
Turkmenistan: The Burden of Current Agricultural Policies
Description: This paper analyses the economic costs of current agricultural policies in Turkmenistan. It argues that the opportunity cost of continuing with these policies is very high for the budget, the average farmer, and the economy as a whole. The paper calls for the development of nontraditional agricultural crops, which are more profitable than wheat and cotton in the international commodity markets, and a comprehensive and sustained reform strategy for the agricultural sector.
June 1, 2000
Factor Reallocation and Growth in Developing Countries
Description: This paper examines the extent to which developing countries benefit from intersectoral factor transfers by specifying the impact and determinants of sectoral changes and of the degree of dualism (or allocation inefficiency) in a dual economy model. Conditions under which factor reallocation is growth-enhancing are derived. An empirical error-correction equation is estimated for 30 developing countries during 1965-80. Results suggest that labor reallocation effects are especially important in countries with high rates of investment (and thus high rates of labor transfer) and/or at low levels of development (and thus high degrees of dualism).
June 1, 2000
The New Capital Adequacy Framework: Institutional Constraints and Incentive Structures
Description: This paper considers the implementation challenges facing the Basel Committee’s new proposals on bank capital standards. When compared with the existing Capital Accord, the proposals represent a shift across two intersecting dimensions—regulatory versus economic capital, and rules-based versus process-oriented regulation. On minimum capital standards, the case for using external ratings may be stronger than has been recognized, given the divergences in the purpose and design of internal ratings. On supervisory review, ensuring comparability among supervisors and building supervisory capacity will present serious challenges. On enhancing market discipline, incentives for markets to exercise discipline will be required.