Working Papers
2000
August 1, 2000
Population Aging and Global Capital Flows in a Parallel Universe
Description: This paper explores the global impact of population aging, using a calibrated overlapping generations model of eight world regions to simulate the effects of historical and projected demographic trends on international capital flows. The simulations show that there will be a turning point in regional savings – investment balances between 2010 and 2030 when the European Union and North America will experience a substantial decline in savings relative to investment as their populations age rapidly. This shift will be financed by capital flows from less developed regions which are projected to become capital exporters.
August 1, 2000
Should Subsidized Private Transfers Replace Government Social Insurance?
Description: Private transfers between individuals or through organized charities are increasingly viewed as an alternative for government social insurance programs. This paper models the incentive effects of government subsidized private transfers and finds that while there is a significant welfare benefit to subsidizing private transfers, there is also a significant welfare cost to this policy. It is shown analytically, as well as through simulations, that the optimal subsidy to private transfers is positive for a wide range of parameter values. This result indicates that subsidized private transfers in net terms are welfare enhancing.
August 1, 2000
How Does U.S. Monetary Policy Influence Economic Conditions in Emerging Markets?
Description: This paper quantifies the economic impact of changes in U.S. monetary policy on emerging market countries. We explore empirically how country risk, as proxied by sovereign bond spreads, is influenced by U.S. monetary policy, country-specific fundamentals, and conditions in global capital markets. In addition, we simulate the direct effects of a tightening in U.S. monetary policy on economic conditions in developing countries. While country-specific fundamentals are important in explaining fluctuations in country risk, the stance and predictability of U.S. monetary policy are also important for stabilizing capital flows and capital market conditions and fostering economic growth in developing countries.
August 1, 2000
Domestic Competition, Cyclical Fluctuations, and Long-Run Growth in Hong Kong Sar
Description: This paper provides an empirical assessment of the degree of competition in Hong Kong SAR using industry-level data. Although due to data limitations only approximate measures of competitiveness can be estimated, the results do suggest that Hong Kong SAR is as competitive as a typical OECD economy. The dramatic shift of the economy toward services over the last decade has also made it slightly less competitive on average. Imperfect competition is not leading to counter-cyclical markups and slower price adjustment as some theories predict, however, since markups are more pro-cyclical than in OECD countries. Lastly, markups are sufficiently imperfectly competitive in both Hong Kong SAR and the OECD to significantly downwardly bias growth accounting estimates of total factor productivity in Asian NICs vis-à-vis OECD countries.
August 1, 2000
Selected Issues Concerning Monetary Policy and Institutional Design for Central Banks: A Review of Theories
Description: In the past decades, much work has been geared toward solving the problem of time inconsistency in monetary policy and analyzing the coordination problem between fiscal and monetary policy. This paper provides a review of the theoretical background to these theories, while also focusing on their inherent problems. It concludes that while the literature makes a strong case for central bank independence, more work should be done in the area of determining the desirable degree of independence with a view to the interplay between fiscal and monetary policy.
August 1, 2000
The Facts About Time: To-Build
Description: This paper presents new empirical evidence about the process of plant investment. Using newspaper and trade journal articles, the author collects and analyzes time-to-build data for a sample of Compustat firms. These data suggest that the average construction lead time for new plants is around two years in most industries. Business cycle fluctuations do not affect the length of time-to-build. The investment lead times are generally not sensitive to the size of the projects. Only nine percent of the firms in the sample deviate from their investment schedules and delay or abandon their projects.
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