Working Papers
January 1, 0001
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2000
November 1, 2000
Emerging Market Spreads: Then Versus Now
Description: This paper analyzes yield spreads on sovereign debt issued by emerging markets using modern data from the 1990s and newly-collected historical data on debt traded in London during 1870–1913, a previous “golden era” for international capital market integration. Applying several empirical approaches, we show that the co-movement of spreads across emerging markets is higher today than it was in the historical sample. We also show that sharp changes in spreads today tend to be mostly related to global events, whereas country-specific events played a bigger role in 1870–1913. Although we find some evidence that economic fundamentals, too, co-move more strongly today than at that earlier time, our interpretation of the results is that today’s investors pay less attention to country-specific events than their predecessors did in 1870–1913.
November 1, 2000
To "B" or Not to "B": A Welfare Analysis of Breaking Up Monopolies in an Endogenous Growth Model
Description: This paper studies the welfare consequences of a government regulation that forces a patented equipment to be supplied by a number of independent producers. On the one hand, such a regulation hurts the value of a patent and therefore reduces activities in the R&D sector. On the other hand, the enhanced competition for the equipment improves efficiency in the manufacturing sector. Should monopolies protected by intellectual property rights be broken up? The answer is “no” in a Romer-type growth model, but there is sufficient reason to believe that the answer could be “yes” in a model advocated by Jones (1995).
November 1, 2000
Endogenous Money Supply and Money Demand
Description: This paper explores the behavior of money demand by explicitly accounting for the money supply endogeneity arising from endogenous monetary policy and financial innovations. Our theoretical analysis indicates that money supply factors matter in the money demand function when the money supply partially responds to money demand. Our empirical results with U.S. data provide strong evidence for the relevance of the policy stance to the demand for MI under a regime in which monetary policy is substantially endogenous. Specifically, we find that tighter monetary policy has substantial positive impacts on money demand under the recent Federal funds rate targeting.
November 1, 2000
The Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuations: Theory and Evidence From Developing Countries
Description: The paper examines the asymmetric effects of exchange rate fluctuations on real output and price in developing countries. The theoretical model decomposes movements in the exchange rate into anticipated and unanticipated components. Unanticipated currency fluctuations determine aggregate demand through exports, imports, and the demand for domestic currency, and determine aggregate supply through the cost of imported intermediate goods. The evidence indicates that the supply channel leads to output contraction and price inflation in the face of unanticipated currency depreciation. In contrast, the reduction in net exports determines output contraction without reducing price inflation in the face of unanticipated currency appreciation.
November 1, 2000
Optimal Inventory Policies when the Demand Distribution is not Known
Description: This paper analyzes the stochastic inventory control problem when the demand distribution is not known. In contrast to previous Bayesian inventory models, this paper adopts a non-parametric Bayesian approach in which the firm’s prior information is characterized by a Dirichlet process prior. This provides considerable freedom in the specification of prior information about demand and it permits the accommodation of fixed order costs. As information on the demand distribution accumulates, optimal history-dependent (s,S) rules are shown to converge to an (s,S) rule that is optimal when the underlying demand distribution is known.
November 1, 2000
Corruption, Growth, and Public Finances
Description: The paper discusses some channels through which corruption affects growth such as the impact of corruption on enterprises, on the allocation of talent, and on investment. It also discusses the impact of corruption on some aspects of public finance.
November 1, 2000
Globalization, Technological Developments, and the Work of Fiscal Termites
Description: Deepening globalization and associated or parallel technological and institutional developments are creating conditions which may reduce the industrial countries’ ability to sustain high levels of taxation. The paper identifies and discusses eight trends which may generate revenue falls. It also discusses some measures that might neutralize or reduce the impact of these trends.
November 1, 2000
Inflation, Debt, and Default in a Monetary Union
Description: Depending on the preferences of the central bank, countries in a monetary union tend to accumulate less debt. This reduces the need for fiscal criteria such as debt ceilings. In a monetary union with an independent central bank and a sufficiently large number of relatively small members, investors will begin rationing credit to the government more rapidly, and an equilibrium with no inflation and no default exists. However, highly-indebted countries are more likely to default once they join a monetary union.
November 1, 2000
Israeli Inflation From An International Perspective
Description: Israel’s post-stabilization experience of moderate inflation and eventual disinflation is compared with experiences in other countries. Lessons that emerge from an examination of international experiences indicate the importance of establishing early on credibility in the nominal anchor and a commitment to persevere with disinflation policies, achieving and maintaining a tight fiscal position, measures to reduce nominal rigidities, and widespread structural reform. Israel falls short on several criteria which explains why taming inflation in the post-stabilization period has been difficult. The paper concludes with a consideration of institutional arrangements that could sustain the current low inflation levels.