Working Papers
2001
March 1, 2001
Obtstacles to Faster Growth in Transition Economies: The Mongolian Case
Description: The obstacles to economic growth in Mongolia are modeled with a supply-side growth model calibrated to represent inefficient use of resources and intermediation. Progressive removal of inefficiencies over time by means of privatization of banks and industrial enterprises potentially leads to increased productivity and increased capital accumulation, raising economic growth and per capita output.
March 1, 2001
Mortgage Market Development, Savings, and Growth
Description: Jappelli and Pagano (1994) argues that tightening the borrowing constraints in the mortgage markets promotes savings. Employing a six-period overlapping generations model with endogenous growth and a method of simulation calibrated on the Middle East, this paper demonstrates that the above argument is tenable only if consumers do not alter their tenure choices. Consumers do, however, postpone or forsake the purchase of a house under severely restrictive borrowing constraints, causing the savings and growth rates to fall. Therefore, for countries with scarce mortgage availability like those in the Middle East, expanding the mortgage markets to some extent is conducive to savings and growth.
March 1, 2001
Africa's Trade Revisted
Description: The popular impression that Africa has not integrated into world trade, as suggested by the evolution in simple indicators, has been called into question recently by more formal analysis. This paper refines and generalizes this analysis, but lends support to the popular view of disintegration. Africa, especially Francophone Africa, is currently under-exploiting its trading opportunities and has witnessed disintegration over time, a trend that is most pronounced in its trade with the technologically advanced countries.
March 1, 2001
Human Capital Convergence: International Evidence
Description: In the growth literature, evidence on income convergence is mixed. In the development literature, health and education indicators are also often used. This study examines whether health and education levels are converging across countries and calculates their convergence speed, using data from 100 countries during 1970–96. A 3SLS procedure is used in a joint analysis of human capital convergence. The results confirm that investments in education and health are closely linked. We find unconditional convergence for life expectancy and infant survival, and enrollment rates, on average and by gender; and conditional convergence for all human capital indicators, including class size.
March 1, 2001
A Quest for Revenue and Tax Incidence in Uganda
Description: This paper examines tax policy and tax reforms in Uganda. Using household survey evidence, the paper identifies which taxes are progressive and investigates whether tax reforms have made the poor better or worse off. Household survey analysis reveals that some of the tax reforms implemented in the 1990s were generally pro-poor. The paper also examines business taxation and the actual tax burden on firms’ capital investment. The analysis demonstrates that, even when the country’s level of public revenue is low at the macroeconomic level, rapidly increasing taxation may pose a constraint to private investment at the microeconomic level.
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2001
February 1, 2001
Physical Capital Adjustment within Spain: Long-Run and Short-Run Analysis
Description: This paper considers the adjustment of physical capital within a country in the long run and in the short run. It uses a unique data set on income, labor, human capital, and private and public physical capital in the Spanish regions over the past two decades. In the long run, the movement of physical capital is consistent with its estimated relative rates of return. In the short run, an adverse shock to a region results in a sharp drop in employment and a gradual decline of physical capital; the system returns to its initial capital/labor ratio after four years. The sharp drop in employment is consistent with the view that wages are rigid. The analysis of adjustment in the short run relies on a vector autoregression methodology in which shocks are identified as the interaction between oil prices and the share of manufacturing in a region’s employment.
February 1, 2001
Rent Seeking and Endogenous Income Inequality
Description: This paper studies the relationship between wealth inequality and occupational choice between rent-seeking and production. With imperfect credit markets and a fixed cost to rent-seeking, only wealthy agents choose to engage in rent-seeking as it enables them to protect their wealth from expropriation. Hence, initial wealth determines occupational choice and aggregate economic activity. The model also generates an unequal wealth distribution endogenously through fair gambles undertaken voluntarily, despite agents being identical ex ante. If agents have an altruistic bequest motive, income and occupational differences can be perpetuated from generation to generation.