Working Papers
2001
May 1, 2001
Benefits of Compliance with Securities Listing Standards: Evidence From the Depository Receipt Market
Description: The paper finds that costs of implementing stringent securities listing standards may exceed benefits. Depository receipts, a growing source of international equity financing, differ in types by the reporting and disclosure standards issuing firms are required to meet. For lower levels of compliance, results show that factors associated with the stage of economic development of the issuing firm's country account for the lower levels of capital raised. Incurring reporting costs to comply with higher standards may thus be inefficient. In contrast, firms choosing to meet higher reporting and disclosure standards do so because the information revealed would have a positive effect on capital raised.
May 1, 2001
New Economy Stock Valuations and Investment in the 1990s
Description: This paper investigates whether there is a different impact from changes in "new" and "old" economy stock valuations on private investment for seven OECD economies. A vector autoregressive model is estimated for each individual country, using quarterly data over the period 1990-2000. We find that the impact from changes in valuations of new economy stocks to investment is roughly the same in North America and United Kingdom as in continental Europe. By contrast, the impact from changes in old economy stock valuations on investment is, in general, larger in North America and United Kingdom than in continental Europe. Finally, the results suggest that in continental Europe the impact on investment from changes in the valuation of new economy stocks is bigger than for old economy stocks, whereas for North America and United Kingdom the impact is more similar.
May 1, 2001
An Exploration of the Private Sector Response to Changes in Government Saving Across OECD Countries
Description: Several recent papers have examined the response of national saving to changes in fiscal policy. This paper uses knowledge about the intergenerational fiscal position of a country to determine whether this information helps to explain cross country differences in the nature of the response. Using OECD data the paper finds that in countries in intergenerational fiscal balance, the private sector completely offsets fiscal policy changes whereas in other countries the private sector offset is only partial. Moreover, in countries with large intergenerational fiscal imbalances, strong fiscal consolidation packages reduce the impact of changes in fiscal policy on national saving.
May 1, 2001
The Long-Run Behavior of Commodity Prices: Small Trends and Big Variability
Description: Using the longest dataset publicly available (The Economist's index of industrial commodity prices), we analyze the behavior of real commodity prices over the period 1862-99, and have two main findings. First, while there has been a downward trend in real commodity prices of 1.3 percent per year over the last 140 years, little support is found for a break in the long-run trend decline in commodity prices. Second, there is evidence of a ratcheting up in the variability of price movements. The amplitude of price movements increased in the early 1900s, while the frequency of large price movements increased after the collapse of the Bretton Woods regime of fixed exchange rates in the early 1970s. While there is a downward trend in real commodity prices, this is of little practical policy relevance as it is small and completely dominated by the variability of prices.
May 1, 2001
Bank Debit Taxes in Latin America: An Analysis of Recent Trends
Description: Six Latin American countries have levied taxes on withdrawals from bank accounts, which have been viewed as a convenient tax handle during a difficult fiscal period. The paper reviews the arguments for and against this type of taxation, describes the taxes, and surveys their revenue performance and economic impact. It concludes that the recently implemented taxes have been successful in raising revenue in the short term, but that adverse allocational impacts have likely been significant. The tax may work better in times of fiscal crisis, when financial intermediation is deep, and when the tax rate is modest.
May 1, 2001
Domestic Bank Regulation and Financial Crises: Theory and Empirical Evidence From East Asia
Description: A model of the domestic financial intermediation of foreign capital inflows based on agency costs is developed for studying financial crises in emerging markets. In equilibrium, the banking system becomes progressively more fragile under imperfect prudential regulation and public sector loan guarantees until a crisis occurs with a sudden reversal of capital flows. The crisis evolves endogenously as the banking system becomes increasingly vulnerable through the renegotiation of loans after idiosyncratic firm-specific revenue shocks. The model generates dynamic relationships between foreign capital inflows, domestic investment, corporate debt and equity values in an endogenous growth model. The model's assumptions and implications for the behavior of the economy before and after crisis are compared to the experience of five East Asian economies. The case studies compare three that suffered a crisis or near-crisis, Thailand and Malaysia, to two that did not, Taiwan Province of China and Singapore, and lend support to the model.
May 1, 2001
Price Volatility and Financial Instability
Description: Statistical measures of the volatility of exchange rates, interest rates, and stock prices are estimated for a number of countries. Periods of high volatility are identified and compared with periods of financial difficulty. The results indicate that GARCH models of volatility could be potentially useful in assessing financial soundness. Daily data are more revealing, but monthly series allow comparisons among many countries. Country specific models may be needed for more reliable inference.
May 1, 2001
The Fall and Recovery of the Cuban Economy in the 1990's: Mirage or Reality?
Description: The collapse of the Cuban economy following the cessation of Soviet assistance gave way to a strong recovery in 1994-96. There are three possible explanations for this recovery: (i) that it never took place; (ii) that it reflected a surge in productivity resulting from stabilization and liberalization in 1993-94; or (iii) that it resulted from a favorable aggregate demand shock. The second explanation-the most persuasive-suggests that a strong and durable expansion will probably not be achieved on the basis of present policies, but that the benefits of a full liberalization of the economy are likely to be considerable.
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2001
April 1, 2001
Financial Sustainability and Reform Options for the Albanian Pension Fund
Description: This paper studies the financial sustainability of the Albanian pension fund and assesses possible options for its reform. The paper concludes that the pension fund is not sustainable in its current form and proposes for the urban scheme a combination of parametric changes to the existing pay-as-you-go system that would be conducive to broadening the contribution base and strengthening the financial performance of the pension fund. In addition, it proposes the establishment of a voluntary funded pillar in the urban scheme. For the rural scheme, the paper concludes that it should either be merged with the scheme for the urban self-employed or be replaced by a mandatory and funded second pillar. The paper also proposes administrative reforms to strengthen revenue collections.