Working Papers
2001
May 1, 2001
Wealth Effects and the New Economy
Description: This paper investigates if there is a different impact from changes in "new" and "old" economy stock valuations on private consumption. Estimating a reduced-form VAR for seven OECD countries for the 1990s, it is found that the impact from changes in old economy stock valuations on consumption is in general larger in the United States, Canada, and United Kingdom than in continental Europe. Furthermore, the impact from changes in new economy valuations to consumption is roughly the same in the United States, Canada, and United Kingdom and in continental Europe. Finally, the results suggest that in continental Europe the impact on consumption from changes in the valuation of new economy stocks is bigger than from the old economy stocks, whereas for the United States, Canada, and United Kingdom the impact is more or less the same between the two sectors.
May 1, 2001
Domestic Petroleum Price Smoothing in Developing and Transition Countries
Description: This paper examines the case for government-led smoothing of domestic petroleum prices in the face of volatile international prices. Governments in most developing and transition countries engage in petroleum price smoothing, as the survey of country practice carried out for this paper shows. This paper reviews the potential welfare implications of petroleum price volatility, and assesses different price smoothing rules on the basis of historical oil prices. These simulations reveal the presence of a sharp trade-off between price smoothing and fiscal stability, suggesting that developing and transition country governments should engage in limited price smoothing and, if possible, rely on hedging instruments to do so.
May 1, 2001
Competition Among Regulators
Description: This paper shows that competition among regulators reduces regulatory standards relative to a centralized solution. It suggests that a central regulator is more likely to emerge for homogeneous and financially integrated countries. The paper proves these results in a model where regulators concerned with their banking system’s stability and efficiency and with their banks’ profitability set their regulatory policy non-cooperatively. Externalities in bank regulation make the independent solution collectively inefficient. These externalities and the benefits of centralized regulation increase with financial integration, while the costs associated with the loss of independence decrease with the homogeneity of the countries involved.
May 1, 2001
Treatment of Mobile Phone Licences in the National Accounts
Description: The treatment of license payments in the national accounts has become increasingly important in recent years; with mobile phone licenses being auctioned for substantial values in several countries. Because the text of the System of National Accounts 1993 does not provide specific guidance on these licenses, their treatment needs to be decided on general principles. This paper concludes that there are usually two assets involved with mobile phone licenses, namely, the spectrum which is owned by the government, and the license which is an intangible nonproduced asset sold by the government to the licenseholder. The values of these two assets are linked complementarily. Alternative treatments of recording the license payments as sale of the spectrum itself, other taxes on production, production of a service, or rent, are considered and rejected. Methods of amortization of the license over its life are considered. An annex raises issues concerning the recognition of rights and obligations as assets and liabilities in national accounting.
May 1, 2001
Intergovernmental Relations and Fiscal Discipline: Between Commons and Soft Budget Constraints
Description: Fiscal decentralization is likely to entail a bias in the budget process toward higher public expenses and deficits. The paper reviews lessons drawn from the theoretical literature and international experience on the design of intergovernmental relations. The institutional setup should address the dual problem of "common tax resources" and "soft" budget constraints, where policies devised to correct one problem may exacerbate the other. An approach based on full tax autonomy of lower-tier governments and reliance on market discipline, not supplemented by self-imposed constitutional limits, is not advisable. More effective seems to be a cooperative approach with some preeminence granted to the central government.
May 1, 2001
Financial Implications of the Shrinking Supply of U.S. Treasury Securities
Description: Recent improvements in fiscal positions in advanced countries have sharply curtailed the issuance of government securities and created the possibility that government securities could disappear in some countries. The possibility that this might occur in the United States has attracted the most attention, in large part because of the international role of the U.S. dollar and the widespread perception that U.S. treasury securities have the lowest total financial risk (the combination of credit, market, and liquidity risks) among U.S. dollar assets. This paper analyzes the unique features of government securities and links them to the important roles that government securities, in particular U.S. treasury securities, have come to play in national and international financial markets. The paper then identifies and examines financial market-oriented public policy questions raised by the shrinking supply of U.S. treasuries.
May 1, 2001
Monetary Implications of Cross-Border Derivatives for Emerging Economies
Description: This paper surveys concepts, practices and analytical literature to assess benefits and risks for monetary stability of cross-border currency and interest rate derivative operations in calm and turbulent periods, with a view of extracting implications for emerging economies. Monetary authorities must prevent one-sided positions in the currency, favor asset substitutability, and incorporate the enriched information set provided by derivative-based transactions into monetary policy design. In some circumstances, the use of derivatives by monetary authorities may help fulfill this role. By contrast, surcharges to compensate for a downward impact of derivatives on the cost of capital appear neither advisable nor necessary.
May 1, 2001
Financial Reforms in Sudan: Streamlining Bank Intermediation
Description: The paper reviews the experience of financial reforms in Sudan with a view to assessing their macroeconomic impact and to shedding light on the question why such reforms have not yet brought about visible improvements in financial intermediation. The paper concludes that regardless of the progress achieved in recent years, deficiencies in the reform design, institutional weaknesses, shallow financial markets, shortcomings of the Islamic mode of finance, and strong seasonality remain key factors that constrain financial intermediation. Additional efforts, in particular in bank restructuring, credit instrument design, monetary policy management, and prudential regulation are needed to address the systemic problems of the financial sector and to make it capable of supporting private sector growth.
May 1, 2001
How Do Countries Choose their Exchange Rate Regime?
Description: This paper investigates the determinants of exchange rate regime choice in 93 countries during 1990-98. Cross-country analysis of variations in international reserves and nominal exchange rates shows that (i) truly fixed pegs and independent floats differ significantly from other regimes and (ii) significant discrepancies exist between de jure and de facto flexibility. Regression results highlight the influence of political factors (political instability and government temptation to inflate), adequacy of reserves, dollarization (currency substitution), exchange rate risk exposure, and some traditional optimal currency area criteria, in particular capital mobility, on exchange rate regime selection.
May 1, 2001
Comparing Projections and Outcomes of IMF-Supported Programs
Description: “Program numbers” from a sample of IMF-supported programs are studied as if they were forecasts, through statistical analyses of the relationship between projections and outcomes for growth, inflation, and three balance of payments concepts. Statistical bias is found only for projections of inflation and official reserves. Statistical efficiency can be rejected for all variables except growth, suggesting that some program projections were less accurate than they might have been. Nevertheless, most projections are found to have some predictive value. Since several findings are shown to be sample-dependent, the full-sample results should be interpreted cautiously.