Working Papers
2001
October 1, 2001
How Volatile and Unpredictable Are Aid Flows, and What Are the Policy Implications?
Description: This paper examines empirical evidence on the volatility and uncertainty of aid flows, and the main policy implications. Aid is found to be more volatile than fiscal revenues- particularly in highly aid-dependent countries-and mildly procyclical in relation to activity in the recipient country. These findings imply that the current pattern of aid disbursements is welfare-reducing. We also find that uncertainty about aid disbursements is large and that the information content of commitments made by donors is either very small or statistically insignificant. Policies to cope with these features of aid, as well as broader international efforts to reduce the volatility and procyclicality of aid, are briefly discussed.
October 1, 2001
Inflation Targeting and the Unemployment-Inflation Trade-off
Description: This paper examines the impact of the introduction of inflation targeting on the unemployment-inflation trade-off in OECD countries. Theoretical models suggest that the credibility-enhancing effects of the adoption of inflation targeting should cause an improvement in the unemployment-inflation trade-off, i.e., that reducing inflation by a given amount should occur with a smaller rise in unemployment. The empirical evidence examined for OECD countries adopting inflation targeting supports this hypothesis. Using a smooth transition regression model, it is shown that the improvement in this trade-off does not take place immediately after the adoption of inflation targeting; rather, it improves over time as the credibility of the central bank is established.
October 1, 2001
Financial Development and Poverty Alleviation: Issues and Policy Implications for Developing and Transition Countries
Description: This paper reviews current thinking on the relationship between financial development and poverty alleviation-a subject that has grown increasingly important in the policy prescriptions of the IMF and other international financial institutions in recent years. Although work on this issue is far from over, some important lessons can be learned from the existing evidence. The paper reflects on these lessons and looks at some of the policy implications of the analysis.
October 1, 2001
Should Banks Be Narrowed?
Description: Over the past seventy years, the proposal to narrow the scope of banks has occurred more and more frequently in financial debates and research. Narrow banking would prevent deposit-issuing banks from lending to the private sector and restrict nonbank intermediaries from funding investments with demand deposits. Proponents of narrow banking defend it as a step toward greater financial stability and efficiency. This study reviews the literature on the subject, contrasts the concept of narrow banking with contemporary banking theories, and evaluates the potential consequences of narrow banking on finance and the real economy. The study also runs an empirical exercise to estimate the costs of bank narrowness and draws policy conclusions.
October 1, 2001
Corporate Bond Risk and Real Activity: An Empirical Analysis of Yield Spreads and Their Systematic Components
Description: This paper finds that the yield spread of investment-grade bonds relative to Treasuries, a proxy of default risk, predicts marginal changes in industrial production in the United States up to 12 months in the future, even upon controlling for a commonly used predictor such as the commercial paper spread. The paper also finds that systematic risk factors associated with the yield spread of investment-grade bonds to a variety of risk-free benchmarks - Treasuries, agency bonds, and AAA-rated bonds - have significant predictive content for future growth rate of industrial production at 3 to 18 months forecasting horizon, both in- and out-of-sample. Finally, a regime-switching estimation shows that the systematic risk component is also able to capture "industrial production business cycle" well.
October 1, 2001
Cost and Effectiveness of Banking Sector Restructuring in Transition Economies
Description: The paper analyses the cost and effectiveness of bank restructuring policies in 11 transition countries during 1991-98. It argues that country-specific banking sector features, the size of bad loans inherited from the centrally planned system, and weaknesses in the restructuring policies implemented were the main factors affecting the overall fiscal costs, with the latter two being more significant. The paper finds no significant relationship between the size of restructuring costs and overall improvement in banking sector performance for the sample countries as a whole.
October 1, 2001
Why Has the Euro Been so Weak?
Description: The weakness of the euro has been surprising given the widely-held expectation that it would be a strong currency. This paper critically examines explanations for the slide in the euro, finding that many are questionable on conceptual or empirical grounds. Two explanations are instead advanced that appear to be consistent both with theory and data. The first originates in the global surge in equity prices since the mid-1990s, which created a demand shock that disproportionately affected the U.S. economy. Model simulations indicate that this can explain the strength of the dollar against other currencies in recent years, accounting for about half of the decline in the effective value of the euro. The other component of euro weakness can be attributed to a mismatch between the demand and supply of euro-denominated assets that arose with the creation of the single currency in 1999. The effect of both these factors should fade over time, although near-term market volatility could be exacerbated by uncertainties about the fundamentals driving currency values.
October 1, 2001
From Crisis to Recovery in Korea: Strategy, Achievements, and Lessons
Description: This paper reviews and draws lessons from the stabilization and reform program that Korea implemented in response to the 1997-98 crisis. The economy recovered quickly from the deep recession in 1998 and its vulnerability to a balance of payments crisis has been reduced sharply. Significant progress has also been made in stabilizing the financial system and addressing corporate distress, and wide-ranging reforms have made Korea’s economy more open, competitive, and market driven. Notwithstanding these achievements, more needs to be done before the soundness of the corporate and financial sectors is firmly established.
October 1, 2001
Monetary Policy with a touch of Basel
Description: The typical portrait of monetary policy has the banks and the money supply being manipulated through changes in bank reserves. However, with only a small portion of bank deposits now subject to reserve requirements, an alternative explanation of how monetary policy influences banks is needed. Over the last decade, capital requirements have effectively replaced reserve requirements as the main constraint on the behavior of banks. This paper explores the implications of Basel capital requirements for monetary policy. In particular, we identify a "bank balance-sheet channel" of monetary policy, which operates through the impact on the money stock and the economy.
October 1, 2001
What Does South Africa's Pattern of Trade Say About its Labor Markets?
Description: This paper examines the factor intensity of South Africa's trade. The conclusion is that South Africa is revealed though its trade pattern to be capital abundant (relative to labor). Surprisingly, this result holds especially for South Africa's trade with its high income partners, which should presumably have been more capital-rich than South Africa. Moreover, this revealed capital intensity of South African production was not reversed during the 1990s after the dismantling of apartheid. This favoring of capital use, against the background of high and rising under-utilization of the country's labor resources, raises questions about the functioning of South Africa's labor market institutions.