Working Papers
2001
November 1, 2001
Speculative Attacks in the Asian Crisis
Description: This paper takes the Asian crisis as an example to show that the Autoregressive Conditional Hazard (ACH) model is a powerful tool for studying the time series features of speculative attacks. The ACH model proposes a duration variable to capture the changes in the frequency of attacks, which might be an important factor influencing investors' expectations. The empirical results show that the ACH model explains the crisis far better than the Probit model. The duration variable is highly significant while most fundamentals are not. The contagion effect is tested and accepted under the ACH specification.
November 1, 2001
The Effects of Capital Controls on Exchange Rate Volatility and Output
Description: This paper extends the Dornbusch model of overshooting exchange rates to discuss both exchange rate and output effects of capital controls that involve additional costs for international asset transactions. We show that, on the one hand, such capital controls have the merit of reducing the volatility of exchange rates following a monetary shock. On the other hand, the implementation increases exchange rate volatility in the short run and induces costs for the real sector in the form of lower equilibrium output levels.
November 1, 2001
Implications of Globalization for Monetary Policy
Description: This paper argues that the implications of globalization for monetary policy come mainly through two channels: On the one hand, the many structural changes that are associated with the globalization process cause an increase in the uncertainty surrounding monetary policy. This includes an increase in uncertainty about how to interpret macroeconomic data/indicators and about the monetary transmission mechanism. On the other hand, by strengthening the process of global economic integration, globalization increases international competition, thereby forcing market players to make structural adjustments or reforms that change the conditions or constraints under which monetary policy is implemented.
November 1, 2001
Manuals on Macroeconomic Statistics: A Stocktaking to Guide Future Work
Description: Over the last decade, a number of methodological manuals on macroeconomic datasets were produced by the international community. For a number of reasons, these manuals could be viewed as fragmented, disconnected, and branching in various directions. This paper groups by topics and broad classifications a critical mass (some 40) of manuals that have been published since 1993 or that are nearing completion. Viewing the manuals in an integrated framework prompts a reflection with four broad types of issues to be addressed for future work: awareness and accessibility of the manuals; their relevance; the need for further harmonization, and the need for updating procedures.
November 1, 2001
An Attempt to Profile the Finances of China’s Enterprise Sector
Description: This paper examines the leverage, efficiency, and debt-repayment capacity of the Chinese enterprise sector using aggregate and firm level data. The cash coverage of interest expense, in particular, is used as a bridge between enterprise finances and banks' asset quality in order to develop insights on banking soundness. The interest coverage analysis corroborates the high level of nonperforming loans in the financial system. This underscores the urgency of hardening budget constraints on state-owned enterprises and stemming the flow of new bad loans by accelerating ongoing structural reforms.
November 1, 2001
Tax Incentives in The Philippines: A Regional Perspective
Description: The Philippines is faced with a policy dilemma in the area of corporate taxation. On the one hand, the country has, over the past few years, witnessed a decline in revenue as a share of output. On the other, it is operating in an increasingly competitive regional market for foreign direct investment. In order to remain competitive, the Philippines offers a broad array of fiscal incentives to entice inward investment and pursue the country's development goals. This paper looks at the fiscal incentives available in the Philippines, compares them with those available in the ASEAN region, and with the evidence on the efficacy of tax incentives in a global context. The paper provides some broad conclusions on the use of the various forms of tax incentives in the Philippines and on their administration.
November 1, 2001
The Law of One Price Over 700 Years
Description: This paper examines annual commodity price data from England and Holland over a span of seven centuries. Our data incorporates transaction prices on seven commodities: barley, butter, cheese, oats, peas, silver, and wheat, as well as pound/shilling nominal exchange rates going back, in some cases, to 1273. We find that the magnitude, volatility, and persistence of deviations from the law of one price have not declined by as much as one might expect. We find this despite lower transport costs, reduced trade protection, and fewer wars and plagues in the modern era. Our analysis is consistent with growing evidence that goods-market arbitrage remains highly imperfect, even today.
November 1, 2001
Economic Data Dissemination: What Influences Country Performanceon Frequency and Timiliness?
Description: Despite initial improvements in macroeconomic data dissemination following the emerging markets crises of the late-1990s, large differences among countries remain. To identify the factors behind such differences, this paper develops measures of the frequency and timeliness of macroeconomic data dissemination for 180 countries. After discussing potential factors influencing data dissemination, the paper confirms the importance of a range of economic, social, and demographic factors. The relative importance of these factors in different regions is discussed, as well as the broader policy implications for strengthening macroeconomic data dissemination.
November 1, 2001
Short- and Long-Term Poverty and Social Policy in a “Snakes and Ladders” Model of Growth
Description: Throughout the world, the great popularity of programs to protect those who may fall into poverty stands in contrast with the weakness of policies aimed at helping individuals who are already poor to overcome long-term poverty. In the paper, an OLG model with persistent poverty and limited social mobility is used to explore some of the reasons for the different success rates of these two types of policies, as well as the gains that can be expected from these and other policies in terms of economic growth. The popularity of social insurance schemes may be due to their relative ex-ante fairness, while the reluctance of societies to support effective policies to reduce long-term poverty may be explained by the redistributive bias of these policies, especially in the short term. However, the failure to attack long-term poverty can reduce long-run growth.
November 1, 2001
Key Features of Australian Business Cycles
Description: This paper identifies and describes the key features of Australian business cycles during 1959-2000. In particular, we identify the chronologies in Australia's classical cycle (expansions and contractions in the level of output) and growth cycle (periods of above-trend and below-trend rates of economic growth). We find that while there are large asymmetries in the duration and amplitude of phases in Australia's classical cycle, on both measures the Australian growth cycle is much more symmetric. Further, our results indicate that over the sample period Australian (filtered) output and prices have moved in a counter-cyclical fashion, suggesting a dominance of shocks to aggregate supply affecting the Australian economy.