Working Papers
January 1, 0001
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2001
November 1, 2001
The Zero Interest Rate Floor (ZIF) and its Implications for Monetary Policy in Japan
Description: This paper uses the IMF's macroeconomic model MULTIMOD to examine the implications of the zero-interest-rate floor (ZIF) for the design of monetary policy in Japan. Similar to findings in other studies, targeting rates of inflation lower than 2.0 percent significantly increases the likelihood of the ZIF becoming binding. Systematic monetary policy strategies that respond strongly to stabilize output and inflation, or that incorporate some explicit price-level component, can help to mitigate the implications of the ZIF.
November 1, 2001
Hedging Government Oil Price Risk
Description: Many governments are heavily exposed to oil price risk, especially those dependent on revenue derived from oil production. For these governments, dealing with large price movements is difficult and costly. Traditional approaches, such as stabilization funds, are inherently flawed. Oil risk markets could be a solution. These markets have matured greatly in the last decade, and their range and depth could allow even substantial producers, and consumers, to hedge their oil price risk. Yet governments have held back from using these markets, mainly for fear of the political cost and lack of know how. This suggests that the IMF, together with other development agencies, should consider encouraging governments to explore the scope for hedging their oil price risk.
November 1, 2001
A Simple Measure of the Intensity of Capital Controls
Description: We present a readily available monthly measure of the intensity of capital controls across 29 emerging market countries that is based on the degree of restrictions on foreign ownership of equities. The initial opening of a market as given by our measure corresponds well with the liberalization dates of Bekaert and Harvey (2000a). In addition, our measure provides information on the extent of the initial opening as well as the evolution of the liberalization over time. After presenting the measure, we compare it to other existing measures of capital controls and briefly describe empirical applications concerning home bias, capital flows to emerging markets, and the effects of financial liberalization on the cost of capital.
November 1, 2001
Euro Area Money Demand: Measuring the Opportunity Costs Appropriately
Description: The existence of a well-specified and stable relationship between money and prices has long been perceived as a prerequisite for the use of monetary aggregates in the conduct of monetary policy. This paper contributes to the ongoing discussion about the stability of euro area money demand by constructing an own rate of return on euro area M3 and by analyzing its implications in a standard money demand system. Over the sample period, one cointegrating vector relating real M3, real GDP and the spread between the short-term interest rate and the own rate of M3 can be identified and interpreted as a long-run euro area money demand equation. A dynamic money demand system is subsequently estimated. Standard diagnostics stability tests and out-of-sample forecasts confirm the good statistical performance of the model.
November 1, 2001
Is Fiscal Policy Coordination in EMU Desirable?
Description: It is widely argued that Europe's unified monetary policy calls for international coordination at the fiscal level. We survey the issues involved in such coordination in the perspective of macroeconomic stabilization. A simple model identifies the circumstances under which coordination may be desirable. Coordination is beneficial when the cross-country correlation of the shocks is low. However, given the potentially adverse reaction by the ECB (as a result of free-riding or a conflict on the orientation of the policy mix), fiscal coordination is likely to prove counterproductive when demand or supply shocks are highly symmetric across countries and the governments are unable to acquire a strategic leadership position vis-à-vis the ECB.
November 1, 2001
Monetary Policy and Corporate Liquid Asset Demand
Description: In contrast to conventional money demand literature, this paper proposes that monetary policy affects corporate liquidity demand directly through a separate channel-what we call "the loan commitment channel." Upon persistent monetary policy shocks, firms make substitutions between sources of funds for intertemporal liquidity management, taking advantage of loan commitments and sluggish movements in loan rates. To test this proposition, we estimate corporate liquidity demand, controlling for firm characteristics, using U.S. quarterly panel data. The results indicate that when monetary policy is tightened, S&P 500 firms initially increase their liquid assets before reducing them, whereas non-S&P firms reduce them more quickly.
November 1, 2001
The Art of Making Everybody Happy: How to Prevent a Secession
Description: In this paper we consider a model of the country with heterogeneous population and examine compensation schemes that may prevent a threat of secession by dissatisfied regions. We show that horizontal imbalances are combatable with secession-proof compensation schemes that entail a degree of partial equalization: the disadvantageous regions should be subsidized but the burden on advantageous regions should not be too excessive. In the case of uniform distribution, we establish the 50-percent compensation rule for disadvantageous regions. Thus, we argue for a limited gap reduction between advantageous and disadvantageous regions and show that neither laissez faire nor Rawlsian allocation is secession-proof.
November 1, 2001
Determinants of, and the Relation Between, Foreign Direct Investment and Growth: A Summary of the Recent Literature
Description: This paper summarizes recent arguments/findings on two aspects of foreign direct investment (FDI): its correlation with economic growth and its determinants. The first part focuses on recent literature regarding positive spillovers from FDI while the second deals with the determinants of FDI. The paper finds that while substantial support exists for positive spillovers from FDI, there is no consensus on causality. On determinants, the paper finds that market size, infrastructure quality, political/economic stability, and free trade zones are important for FDI, while results are mixed regarding the importance of fiscal incentives, the business/investment climate, labor costs, and openness.
November 1, 2001
Post-Crisis Exchange Rate Policy in Five Asian Countries: Filling in the "Hollow Middle"?
Description: Following the 1997-98 financial turmoil, crisis countries in Asia moved toward either floating or fixed exchange rate systems, reinforcing the bipolar view of exchange rate regimes and the "hollow middle" hypothesis. But some academics have claimed that the crisis countries' policies have been similar in the post- and pre-crisis periods. This paper analyzes the evidence and concludes that, except for Malaysia, which adopted a hard peg and imposed capital controls, the other crisis countries are floating more than before, though less than "real" floaters do. Further, the crisis countries' policies during the post-crisis period can be justified on second-best arguments.