Working Papers
2002
January 1, 2002
Exchange Market Pressure, Currency Crises, and Monetary Policy: Additional Evidence From Emerging Markets
Description: This paper extends my previous work by examining the relationship between monetary policy and exchange market pressure (EMP) in 32 emerging market countries. EMP is a gauge of the severity of crises, and part of this paper specifically analyzes crisis periods. Two variables gauge the stance of monetary policy: the growth of central bank domestic credit and the interest differential (domestic versus U.S. dollar). Evidence suggests that monetary policy plays an important role in currency crises. And, in most countries the shocks to monetary policy affect EMP in the direction predicted by traditional approaches: tighter money reduces EMP.
January 1, 2002
Sources of Economic Growth in East Asia: A Nonparametric Assessment
Description: The conventional growth-accounting approach to estimating the sources of economic growth requires unrealistically strong assumptions about the competitiveness of factor markets and the form of the underlying aggregate production function. This paper outlines a new approach utilizing nonparametric derivative estimation techniques that does not require imposing these restrictive assumptions. The results for East Asian countries show that output elasticities of capital and labor are different from the income shares of these factors, and that the growth of total factor productivity over the period 1960-95 has been an important factor in the overall growth performance of these countries.
January 1, 2002
Mexico: Experiences with Pro-Poor Expenditure Policies
Description: Against the background of Mexico's persistently high degree of inequality, this paper analyzes the country's experience with pro-poor policies over the last decade. A number of important government initiatives, implemented since the mid-1990s, have aimed at improving distributional equity through pro-poor expenditure programs, while at the same time seeking to increase the efficiency of public spending. This paper reviews these initiatives and outlines some additional policy options.
January 1, 2002
Impact of Structural Reformson Productivity Growth in Industrial Countries
Description: This paper investigates the impact of structural reforms on productivity growth. A panel analysis of 20 OECD countries finds that the impact of structural reforms on productivity growth may be weak or negative in the short run, possibly due to adjustment costs and the need for firms to learn how to operate in a less regulated and more competitive environment. In the long run, however, structural reforms are found to have significantly positive effects on productivity growth.
January 1, 2002
The Corporate Spread Curve and Industrial Production in the United States
Description: The term structure of domestic investment grade bond spreads - or corporate spread curve - contains useful information to predict future changes in industrial production, beyond the information already contained in interest rates, commercial paper-treasury bill spreads, and lagged values of industrial production. In fact, the corporate spread curve can explain the cumulative growth rate of industrial production over 3- to 48-month horizons, and the marginal growth rate over 6- to 18-month horizons. Unlike other financial variables, the corporate spread curve has been a stable predictor of real activity for the last fifteen years.
January 1, 2002
Predicting Emerging Market Currency Crashes
Description: This paper assesses the extent to which crashes in emerging market currencies are predictable using simple logit models based on lagged macroeconomic and financial data. To evaluate our model, we calculate trading strategies in which an investor goes long or short in the currency depending on whether crash probabilities are low or high. When we estimate the model on part of the data and then use the parameter estimates to generate predictions for the remainder of the sample, we find that substantial profits may be made. Furthermore, the model correctly forecasts major crashes even on an out-of-sample basis.
January 1, 2002
Financial Reforms and Interest Rate Spreads in the Commercial Banking System in Malawi
Description: This study investigates the impact of financial sector reforms on interest rate spreads in the commercial banking system in Malawi. The financial reform program commenced in 1989 when both the Reserve Bank Act and the Banking Act were revised with the easing of entry requirements into the banking system, and indirect monetary policy instruments were subsequently introduced in 1990. The adoption of a floating exchange rate in 1994 marked the end of major policy reforms in the Malawian financial sector. Using alternative definitions of spreads, our analysis shows that spreads increased significantly following liberalization, and panel regression results suggest that the observed high spreads can be attributed to high monopoly power, high reserve requirements, high central bank discount rate and high inflation.
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