Working Papers
January 1, 0001
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January 1, 0001
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January 1, 0001
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2002
March 1, 2002
Banking Crises and Bank Resolution: Experiences in Some Transition Economies
Description: Like most transition economies, Bulgaria, Lithuania, and Mongolia suffered severe banking crises, which had to be resolved before growth could resume. The macroeconomic and institutional failings that led to these crises are described, and parallels are drawn with the causes of banking crises in industrial and developing countries. Resolving the crises proved technically and politically difficult, and setbacks occurred. Successful resolution required the implementation of a comprehensive and decisive strategy, involving thorough-going bank restructuring, heavy fiscal costs, and institutional and legal reforms.
March 1, 2002
Systemic Risk and Financial Consolidation: Are they Related?
Description: We argue that firm interdependencies, as measured by correlations of stock returns, provide an indicator of systemic risk potential. We find a positive trend in stock return correlations net of diversification effects for a sample of U.S. Large and Complex Banking Organizations over 1988-99. This finding suggests that the systemic risk potential in the financial sector may have increased. In addition, we find a positive consolidation elasticity of correlations. However, such elasticity exhibits substantial time variation and likely declined in the latter part of the decade. Thus, factors other than consolidation have also been responsible for the upward trend in return correlations.
March 1, 2002
The Transmission Mechanism of European Monetary Policy: Is There Heterogeneity? Is it Changing over Time?
Description: This paper investigates the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in the four largest euro area countries by means Bayesian estimation of dynamic econometric models. Based on pre-EMU evidence from Germany, France, Italy, and Spain, we show that: (i) there are differences in the timing of the effects of monetary policy on economic activity, but their cumulative impact after two years is rather homogeneous; (ii) the transmission mechanism seems to have changed over time in the run-up to EMU but its degree of heterogeneity has not decreased; (iii) the "European-wide" effects of monetary policy may have become faster in the second half of the 1990s. We interpret this evidence by conjecturing that the transmission mechanism of monetary policy had already become relatively homogenous in the second part of the 1990s.
March 1, 2002
Credit Stagnation in Latin America
Description: This study examines the recent marked slowdown in bank credit to the private sector in Latin America. Based on the study of eight countries (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Peru, Mexico, and Venezuela), the magnitude of the slowdown is documented, comparing it to historical behavior and to slowdown episodes in other regions of the world. Second, changes in bank balance sheets are examined to determine whether the credit slowdown is merely a reflection of a slowdown in bank deposits, or whether the asset side has changed. Third, following an econometric disequilibrium approach used in recent studies of credit slowdowns in East Asia and Finland, the paper investigates possible causes for the slowdown in three countries: Colombia, Mexico, and Peru. While both supply and demand factors appear to have played key roles, their relative importance has varied across countries.
March 1, 2002
Why White, Not Keynes? Inventing the Post-War International Monetary System
Description: The international monetary system is largely the product of negotiations during World War II between U.S. and U.K. officials, led respectively by Harry Dexter White and John Maynard Keynes. The design of the system, especially the International Monetary Fund, reflects the U.S. plan much more than the British. That outcome resulted not only from the superior economic position of the United States but also from differences between White's and Keynes's views on key issues. Examination of White's economic papers shows that he was more multilateral than Keynes and placed a higher priority on monetary discipline.
March 1, 2002
Candidate Entry, Screening, and the Political Budget Cycle
Description: We investigate whether private information about citizens' competence in political office can be revealed by their entry and campaign expenditure decisions. We find that this depends on whether voters and candidates have common or conflicting interests; only in the former case can entry be revealing. We apply these results to Rogoff's (1990) political budget cycle model: as interests are common, low-ability candidates are screened out at the entry stage, and so there is no signaling via fiscal policy. In a variant of Rogoff's model where citizens differ in honesty, interests are conflicting, so the political budget cycle can persist.
March 1, 2002
The Impact of Cyclical Factors on the U. S. Balance of Payments
Description: Real GDP growth and real effective exchange rate (REER) appreciation appear cointegrated with the current and financial accounts of the U.S. balance of payments. On this basis, we estimate reduced form equations showing that expected changes and shocks to real GDP, the REER, energy prices, and growth in emerging market economies and other industrial countries explain much of the short-term variation in the U.S. current account balance, with the balance worsening as real GDP, energy prices, and the REER increase. In addition, foreign direct investment rises with real growth, while stock market prices affect the composition of capital inflows.