Working Papers
2002
July 1, 2002
Seductions of an Underdevelopment Trap: Systemic Impediments to Agricultural Reform in Russia
Description: Despite ambitious agricultural reforms initiated by the federal government, inefficient and unprofitable producers predominate in post-Soviet Russia. However, in some regions a more robust restructuring has taken place. Observing two Russian regions-one with substantially restructured agricultural production, and one in which Soviet-style coordination predominates-we develop a model of the interactions between political and economic incentives that lead to these divergent outcomes. The model identifies region- and sector-specific characteristics that encourage some regional governments to maintain Soviet-style redistribution structures and make producers forsake more efficient outcomes as more costly, while encouraging other regions to pursue reform.
July 1, 2002
Internal Models-Based Capital Regulation and Bank Risk-Taking Incentives
Description: Advocates for internal model-based capital regulation argue that this approach will reduce costs and remove distortions that are created by rules-based capital regulations. These claims are examined using a Merton-style model of deposit insurance. Analysis shows that internal model-based capital estimates are biased by safety-net-generated funding subsidies that convey to bank shareholders when market and credit risk regulatory capital requirements are set using bank internal model estimates. These subsidies are not uniform across the risk spectrum, and, as a consequence, internal model regulatory capital requirements will cause distortions in bank lending behavior.
July 1, 2002
Some International Issues in Commodity Taxation
Description: This paper reviews issues and evidence concerning tax-motivated, cross-border commodity transactions. A distinction is drawn between "arbitrage trades" (driven by cross-country differences in tax rates) and "tax not paid" transactions (motivated by the opportunity to pay no tax at all on transactions with international aspects). Assessment of the severity of the associated policy problems faces the difficulty that the observed extent of cross-border transactions conveys no information on the induced inefficiency that the possibility of such transactions may generate. Given the difficulty of securing coordination of national tax policies, much of the emphasis in dealing with these problems in the coming years is likely to be on administrative cooperation.
July 1, 2002
Migration and Human Capital Formation: Theory and Evidence From the U.S. High School Movement
Description: In 1910, 12 percent of American 14-17 year olds were enrolled in high school; by 1930, enrollment had increased to 50 percent; enrollment in Britain was 12 percent in 1950. This paper argues that by increasing the skill premium, the massive inflows of European unskilled immigrants at the turn of the twentieth century engendered America's sharp rise in human capital investment. The increased enrollments raised the supply of schools, leading to continued schooling investment. Cross section evidence and a VAR analysis of the time series data support the hypothesized role of immigration in generating the high school movement.
July 1, 2002
Labor Market Pooling
Description: The paper provides an empirical investigation of labor market pooling. The analysis concentrates on Italian industrial districts and shows that there is scattered evidence of a widespread wage premium. In particular, there is no evidence of district differentials for the returns to seniority while there is evidence of negative differentials for the returns to education. Moreover, dwelling in a district has no impact on the probability of being self-employed and only a minor impact on the likelihood of transiting from wage-and-salary to self-employment. Finally, there is no evidence of higher district worker mobility across jobs.
July 1, 2002
Demutualization of Securities Exchanges: A Regulatory Perspective
Description: Demutualization is a term used to describe the transition of a securities exchange from a mutual association of exchange members operating on a not-for-profit basis to a limited liability, for-profit company accountable to shareholders. Demutualization in its many forms has become a widespread phenomenon-one with increasing appeal in emerging market countries. Demutualization challenges the traditional approach to supervision of securities exchanges and raises issues regarding their role in the regulation and supervision of capital markets.
July 1, 2002
Assessing Monthly Progress towards Annual Fiscal Revenue Targets
Description: A simple statistical methodology is developed to help evaluate monthly progress toward an annual fiscal revenue target, and the applicability of the methodology to both developing and industrial countries is demonstrated using data for Sri Lanka and the United States.
July 1, 2002
Limits of Conditionality in Poverty Reduction Programs
Description: When donors and recipients have different preferences over budgetary allocations, conditionality helps the implementation of donor-financed poverty reduction programs. However, if donors cannot perfectly monitor all recipients' actions, conditionality entails an inefficient allocation of resources. Under such conditions, the optimal amount of conditionality varies (often not monotonically) with the recipients' degree of social commitment. Finally, if recipients' preferences are not observable, conditionality can be used to prevent recipients with a weak commitment to poverty reduction from obtaining aid funds. This may however lead to further distortions in terms of resource allocation and to phenomena of "aid rationing."
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