Working Papers
2002
November 1, 2002
Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Turkey
Description: In light of the strong correlation between exchange rate movements and domestic prices in Turkey, it is important to assess the impact of the exchange rate on domestic prices, in particular as Turkey moves to an inflation targeting regime. This paper uses a recursive vector autoregression model to investigate the impact of exchange rate movements on prices in Turkey. We find that (i) the impact of the exchange rate on prices is over after about a year, but is mostly felt in the first four months, (ii) the pass-through to wholesale prices is more pronounced compared to the pass-through to consumer prices, and (iii) the estimated pass-through is complete in a shorter time and is larger than that estimated for other key emerging market countries.
November 1, 2002
Testing the Relationship Between Government Spending and Revenue: Evidence From GCC Countries
Description: The paper examines the direction of causality between total government expenditure and revenue in oil-dependent GCC countries by utilizing a cointegration and error-correction modeling framework, and by calculating a variance decomposition analysis. In addition, it presents impulse responses to shed light on the dynamic relation of expenditure to a revenue shock. The results confirm expectations that government spending follows oil revenue, suggesting a pro-cyclical expenditure policy to variations in oil revenue. To make budget expenditure less driven by revenue availability, the authorities could resort to a medium-term expenditure framework, so that expenditures can be planned and insulated from volatile short-term revenue availability.
November 1, 2002
An Empirical Analysis of China's Export Behavior
Description: This paper studies the behavior of China's exports from the mid-1980s through 2001. Extensive quarterly data on values and quantities of major export products have been taken from Chinese customs statistics to form a panel data set. The data are used to estimate export supply price elasticities, including by industry groups. The extensive product level data permits the use of panel estimation techniques in order to increase the power of the testing methodology. Aggregate quarterly export unit price indices are also constructed and thereby provide an input to future research on China's trade.
November 1, 2002
The Economics of Post Conflict Aid
Description: Post conflict aid is different from conventional development aid and has different effects on the recipient economy. The paper builds a theoretical model tailored around the main stylized facts of post conflict aid and traces the impact of different kinds of post-conflict aid on capital accumulation, growth, welfare, and resource allocation. While both humanitarian and reconstruction aid are welfare-enhancing, humanitarian aid reduces long-run capital accumulation and growth. Reconstruction aid, on the other hand, may increase the long-run capital stock and, if carefully designed, avoid the pitfalls of the Dutch disease.
November 1, 2002
Bedfellows, Hostages, or Perfect Strangers? Global Capital Markets and the Catalytic Effect of IMF Crisis Lending
Description: During the 1990s, the concept of "catalytic official finance" (COF) gained prominence in policy debates. The concept revolves around the idea that the propensity of investors to lend to a country increases when the IMF provides its "seal of approval"-backed up by only limited official financing-on the country's economic program. COF aims at avoiding, on the one hand, the massive use of public money to bail out private investors; on the other, the recourse to coercive bailing-in mechanisms. The paper concludes that COF, while possibly useful in other contexts, is less reliable when used to manage capital account crises.
November 1, 2002
Expenditure Issues and Governance in Central America
Description: This paper analyzes Central America's track record on inequality, poverty, and quality of fiscal adjustment in relation to economic growth; health and education outcomes; adequacy of social safety nets; and governance. It then assesses the degree to which the track record can be traced to reforms in public expenditure and governance. Despite the considerable heterogeneity among the countries in the region, there are some policies that all countries need to pursue. Sustained growth and a better quality of fiscal adjustment are needed, as well as policies aimed at increasing individuals' productivity and improving governance.
November 1, 2002
Money Demand in the Euro Area: Where Do We Stand (Today)?
Description: The paper reviews the stability of long-run money demand in the euro area in the light of recent revisions to M3 data. The analysis confirms the existence of a stable long-run money demand, although the estimated equation implies a smaller equilibrium M3 growth than the European Central Bank's reference value of 4½ percent. The stability of long-run money demand does not imply that the market is always in equilibrium. Indeed, it is argued that periods of disequilibrium can be long and adjustment slow. The paper shows that the difference between the low estimated equilibrium growth rate and the actual growth rate for M3 can be explained by a velocity shock, identified here as the sharp fall in equity prices in the last two years. These characteristics of the money market-summarized in the events of the last two years-would call for an alternative approach in the communication of monetary policy developments, essentially putting less emphasis on month-to-month developments in M3.
November 1, 2002
The Inflation Targeting Framework in Norway
Description: Norway adopted an inflation targeting framework in early 2001, thus concluding its gradual but consistent move toward greater exchange rate flexibility. This paper assesses the institutional and technical design of the framework, as well as its potential implications for the practical implementation of monetary policy against the experience from selected industrial countries that had adopted inflation targeting frameworks prior to Norway. Norway's role as a commodity exporter exposed to large terms of trade shocks, and the possible consequences of newly introduced fiscal guidelines are also discussed.
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