Working Papers
January 1, 0001
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January 1, 0001
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January 1, 0001
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2002
December 1, 2002
Stock Market Developments and Private Consumer Spending in Emerging Markets
Description: Using a panel of 16 emerging markets, the paper finds a small but statistically significant effect of stock market developments on private consumption spending. In the short run, a 10 percent decline in the annual real stock market return is associated with a reduction in real private consumption by around 0.1-0.3 percent on average. There is evidence that the link between stock market fluctuations and private consumption has become stronger during the 1990s as stock markets in emerging economies have broadened and deepened. However, there is no significant evidence that the influence is asymmetric. Stock price declines do not have a different impact on consumption than stock price increases.
December 1, 2002
Firm Investment, Corporate Finance, and Taxation
Description: This paper examines the intertemporal effect of corporate income taxation on the investment behavior of a firm that faces imperfect capital markets. It shows that when capital markets are imperfect, the optimizing firm goes through different phases of growth. In this dynamic setting, the effect of a corporate tax on profits varies over time. An increase in the corporate profit tax rate initially reduces investment, but the effect is reversed over time as the firm adjusts its financing policy to the new tax rate.
December 1, 2002
Imperfect Competition and the Design of VAT Regimes: The Case of Energy Trade Between Russia and Ukraine
Description: Under imperfect competition, Russia and Ukraine may choose to deviate from optimal tax considerations which suggest use of a destination-based VAT regime. Oil and gas trade is a major source of Russian tax revenue, which is collected partly through an origin-based VAT on intra-CIS energy trade. The paper shows that Ukraine may try to capture part of the tax revenue if it has monopsony power. It is far from clear whether Ukraine would succeed in shifting the rents through taxation, since this depends on the form of imperfect competition and the curvature of Ukraine's import demand function.
December 1, 2002
“Original Sin,” Balance Sheet Crises, and the Roles of International Lending
Description: We present a stylized framework which encompasses a variety of "balance sheet approaches" to currency crises that have been suggested in the literature, and analyze their policy implications. The common theme is that currency and maturity mismatches in private sector balance sheets constrain the capacity of monetary and fiscal policies to deal with self-fulfilling capital account crises, and generate a role for international crisis lending. International lending could be used to back domestic last-resort lending to banks, or to loosen fiscal constraints. Provided they have a sound fiscal position in normal times, this can make countries immune to self-fulfilling crises.
December 1, 2002
Common and Idiosyncratic Components in Real Output: Further International Evidence
Description: This paper uses the classical (level) definition of business cycles to analyze the characteristics-duration, amplitude, steepness, and cumulative output movements-of the real GDP series of France, Germany, Italy, the rest of the euro area, and the United States. An index of concordance and its test statistic suggest a great deal of comovement/synchronization between output cycles. Following that result, a dynamic factor model is estimated. Output fluctuations are mostly explained by a global common component and an euro area common component. However, idiosyncratic components also matter, especially for France, the rest of the euro area, and the United States.
December 1, 2002
Central American Tax Reform: Trends and Possibilities
Description: Central American tax systems are modern in their orientation, though there remains scope for beneficial reform. Value-added taxes are the mainstay of collections, but their performance varies. Income and property taxes remain relatively underused and should apply to higher income taxpayers more comprehensively. Tax reform needs to be mindful of global competition. Continuing improvement in administrative performance is also essential.
December 1, 2002
How Symmetric Are the Shocks and the Shock Adjustment Dynamics Between the Euro Area and Central and Eastern European Countries?
Description: In this paper, we use a structural vector autoregression model to identify and compare demand and supply shocks between euro area countries and central and eastern European countries (CEECs). The shocks and the shock adjustment dynamics of these countries are also compared to EU countries that currently do not participate in the EMU. Focusing on the period 1993-2001, we find that there are still differences in the shocks and in the adjustment process to shocks between the euro area and the CEECs. However, several individual CEECs exhibit shocks and shock adjustment processes that are fairly similar to some euro area countries.