Working Papers
2003
March 1, 2003
How to Fight Deflation in a Liquidity Trap: Committing to Being Irresponsible
Description: I model deflation, at zero nominal interest rate, in a microfounded general equilibrium model. I show that deflation can be analyzed as a credibility problem if the government has only one policy instrument, money supply carried out by means of open market operations in short-term bonds, and cannot commit to future policies. I propose several policies to solve the credibility problem. They involve printing money or nominal debt and either (1) cutting taxes, (2) buying real assets such as stocks, or (3) purchasing foreign exchange. The government credibly "commits to being irresponsible" by using these policy instruments. It commits to higher money supply in the future so that the private sector expects inflation instead of deflation. This is optimal, since it curbs deflation and increases output by lowering the real rate of return.
March 1, 2003
Factors Underlying the Definition of Broad Money: An Examination of Recent U.S. Monetary Statistics and Practices of Other Countries
Description: The paper examines the experiences of countries in defining monetary aggregates, particularly those countries that have undertaken substantial redefinitions. It finds that both the functional and empirical approaches are important; and that monetary definitions tend to be dynamic in nature, becoming prone to revisions whenever the current definition no longer satisfies both criteria. While countries may adhere to both approaches, monetary definitions may still vary across countries, reflecting specific institutional settings and the requirements of the empirical approach. This finding supports the approach in the IMF's Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual of not prescribing specific definitions of broad money.
March 1, 2003
Current Issues in the Design and Conduct of Monetary Policy
Description: Movements in global capital during the late 1990s and the greater emphasis on price stability led many countries to abandon fixed exchange rate regimes and to design institutions and monetary policies to achieve credibility in the goal of lowering inflation. Such recent developments have brought to the forefront the idea that freely mobile capital, independent monetary policy, and fixed exchange rates form an "impossible trinity." It is possible to have two of these policies, but not all three. Inflation-targeting regimes being adopted by many countries provide a way of resolving this dilemma.
March 1, 2003
Trade Costs, Market Integration, and Macroeconomic Volatility
Description: This paper examines the effects of trade costs on macroeconomic volatility. We first construct a dynamic, two-country general equilibrium model, where the degree of market integration depends directly on trade costs (transport costs, tariffs, etc.). The model is a extension of Obstfeld and Rogoff (1995). Naturally, a reduction in trade costs leads to more market integration, as the relative price of foreign goods falls and households increase their consumption of imported goods. In addition, with more market integration, the model predicts that the variability of the real exchange rate should fall, while the variability of the trade balance should increase. Trade costs have ambiguous effects on the volatility of other macro variables, such as income and consumption. Finally, we present some empirical findings that provide mixed support for the model's predictions.
March 1, 2003
Does Insider Trading Raise Market Volatility?
Description: This paper studies the role of insider trading in explaining cross-country differences in stock market volatility. The central finding is that countries with more prevalent insider trading have more volatile stock markets, even after one controls for liquidity/maturity of the market and the volatility of the underlying fundamentals (volatility of real output and of monetary and fiscal policies). Moreover, the effect of insider trading is quantitively significant when compared with the effect of economic fundamentals.
March 1, 2003
Financial Integration and Macroeconomic Volatility
Description: This paper examines the impact of international financial integration on macroeconomic volatility in a large group of industrial and developing economies over the period 1960-99. We report two major results: First, while the volatility of output growth has, on average, declined in the 1990s relative to the three preceding decades, we also document that, on average, the volatility of consumption growth relative to that of income growth has increased for more financially integrated developing economies in the 1990s. Second, increasing financial openness is associated with rising relative volatility of consumption, but only up to a certain threshold. The benefits of financial integration in terms of improved risk-sharing and consumption-smoothing possibilities appear to accrue only beyond this threshold.
March 1, 2003
Would "Cold Turkey" Work in Turkey?
Description: Persistently high inflation rates have led many to believe that inflation in Turkey has become "inertial," posing an obstacle to disinflation. We assess the empirical validity of this argument. We find that the current degree of inflation persistence in Turkey is lower than in Brazil and Uruguay prior to their successful stabilization programs. More significantly, expectations of future inflation are more important than past inflation in shaping the inflation process, providing little evidence of "backward-looking" behavior. Using survey data, we find that inflation expectations, in turn, depend largely on the evolution of fiscal variables.
March 1, 2003
Market Volatility As a Financial Soundness Indicator: An Application to Israel
Description: Financial decisions of economic agents are based on volatility considerations. However, no aggregate indicators have been used by policymakers and regulators to assess the market risk environment. This paper applies a market volatility indicator to analyze the Israeli's transition toward inflation targeting. Unlike conventional measures of volatility, it shows a substantial decline once volatility is measured against the minimum variance for the same returns on assets. Using a conventional Multivariate GARCH model, we find that interest rates sensitivity to changes in the risk environment may be important for a correct identification of volatility patterns of individual assets.
March 1, 2003
Are they All in the Same Boat? the 2000-2001 Growth Slowdown and the G-7 Business Cycle Linkages
Description: This paper reviews the international business cycle among Group of Seven (G-7) countries since 1973 from two angles. An examination of business cycle synchronization among these countries using simple descriptive statistics shows that synchronized slowdowns have been the norm rather than the exception and that the slowdown in 2000-2001 largely followed patterns seen in the past. The paper also identifies the international business cycle with an asymptotic dynamic factor model. Two global factors explain roughly 80 percent of the variance in G-7 output gaps at business cycle frequencies. The factor model decomposes the "common part" of national output fluctuations into two factors, one capturing the average G-7 cycle and one that corrects for phase and amplitude differences. We also found some evidence supporting the hypothesis that global shocks were the main force behind the slowdown in 2000-2001.
March 1, 2003
Primary Dealers in Government Securities: Policy Issues and Selected Countries Experience
Description: In many countries, authorities have designated a group of financial firms as the principal intermediaries in the government securities market-referred to as "primary dealers" or a "primary dealer system." This paper discusses policy issues related to the establishment of a primary dealer system for countries that may be considering taking this step. In this regard, a key issue is whether a primary dealer system fits into the overall strategy for financial market development in the country. Under a primary dealer system, the debt manager and the group of primary dealers pursue a common strategy in support of the effective functioning and development of primary and secondary markets for government securities. This paper presents results of a survey of country practices conducted in early 2001. Among the countries surveyed, there was broad agreement among authorities that a primary dealer system is to be highly recommended.