Working Papers
January 1, 0001
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2003
March 1, 2003
Interest Rates, Credit Rationing, and Investment in Developing Countries
Description: This paper examines the impact of interest rates and inflation on bank loans and investment within a framework that mimics the financial sectors prevailing in most low-income developing countries. The paper emphasizes the importance of treating the lending and deposit rates of interest as distinct parameters in investment equations. The spread between the two rates is indicative of default risk and has a negative impact on incremental loan amounts associated with higher lending rates, in particular in economies with flawed institutions. The model presented in the paper highlights the importance of promoting macroeconomic stability and upgrading institutions and informational infrastructure.
March 1, 2003
The Impact of External Indebtednesson Poverty in Low-Income Countries
Description: This paper explores the relationship between external debt and poverty. A number of observers have argued that high external indebtedness is a major cause of poverty. Using the first-differenced general method of moments (GMM) estimator, the paper models the impact of external debt on poverty, measured by life expectancy, infant mortality, and gross primary enrollment rates, while duly taking into account the impact of external debt on income. The paper thus endeavors to bring together the literature that links external debt with income growth and poverty. The main conclusion is that once the effect of income on poverty has been taken into account, external indebtedness indicators have a limited but important impact on poverty.
March 1, 2003
Determinants of the Choice of Exchange Rate Regimes in Six Central American Countries: An Empirical Analysis
Description: This paper examines whether decisions about the appropriate exchange rate regime in six Central American countries were based on longer-run economic fundamentals or on the confluence of historical and political circumstances. To uncover any actual relationship both across countries and across time, we estimate several probit and multinomial logit models of exchange rate regime choice with data spanning the period 1974-2001. We find that theoretical long-run determinants, such as trade openness, export share with the major trading partner, economic size, and per capita income, are adequate, but not robust, predictors of exchange rate regime choice. However, we were not able to establish a statistically significant association between the terms of trade fluctuations or capital account openness and a particular regime in any specification using our sample.
March 1, 2003
Do Elections Always Motivate Incumbents? Experimentation vs. Career Concerns
Description: This paper studies a principal-agent model of the relationship between an incumbent officeholder and the electorate, where the officeholder is initially uninformed about her ability. If officeholder effort and ability interact in the "production function" that determines performance in office, then an officeholder has an incentive to experiment-that is, raise effort so that performance becomes a more accurate signal of her ability. Elections reduce the experimentation effect, and the reduction in this effect may more than offset the positive "career-concerns" effect of elections on effort. Moreover, when this occurs, appointment of officeholders may Pareto-dominate elections.
March 1, 2003
Firm-Level Evidenceon International Stock Market Comovement
Description: We explore the link between international stock market comovement and the degree to which firms operate globally. Using stock returns and balance sheet data for companies in 20 countries, we estimate a factor model that decomposes stock returns into global, country-specific and industry-specific shocks. We find a large and highly significant link: on average, a firm raising its international sales by 10 percent raises the exposure of its stock return to global shocks by 2 percent and reduces its exposure to country-specific shocks by 1.5 percent. This link has grown stronger since the mid-1980s.
March 1, 2003
Inflation Performance and Constitutional Central Bank Independence: Evidence From Latin America and the Caribbean
Description: This paper explores the relationship between the constitutional entrenchment of central bank independence and inflation performance. Empirical studies for developing countries have not found a relationship between central bank independence, proxied by the "de jure" independence established in the central bank law, and inflation. We argue that the constitution is likely to be better enforced than ordinary statutes owing to its higher legal rank. Our empirical analysis finds that in a sample of Latin American and Caribbean countries, those countries that entrench the independence of the central bank in the constitution have a better inflation performance.
March 1, 2003
Country and Industry Dynamics in Stock Returns
Description: A perennial question in international finance is to what extent stock returns are influenced by country-location, as opposed to industry-affiliation, factors. This paper develops a novel methodology to measure these effects, in which portfolios mimicking "pure" country and industry factors are first constructed and their joint dynamics then modeled as regime-switching processes. Estimation using global firm-level data allows us to identify well-defined volatility states over the past thirty years and shows that the contribution of the industry factor becomes systematically more prominent during high global volatility states, while the country factor contribution declines. Using the model's estimates, we find that portfolio diversification possibilities vary considerably across economic states.
March 1, 2003
Did Output Recover From the Asian Crisis?
Description: This paper investigates the extent to which output has recovered from the Asian crisis. A regime-switching approach that introduces two state variables is used to decompose recessions in a set of six Asian countries into permanent and transitory components. While growth recovered fairly quickly after the crisis, there is evidence of permanent losses in the levels of output in all of the countries studied.
March 1, 2003
Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate for South Africa
Description: Based on the Johansen cointegration estimation methodology, much of the long-run behavior of the real effective exchange rate of South Africa can be explained by real interest rate differentials, GDP per capita (both relative to trading partners), real commodity prices, trade openness, the fiscal balance, and the extent of net foreign assets. On the basis of these fundamentals, the real exchange rate in early 2002 was found to be significantly more depreciated with respect to the estimated equilibrium level. The half-life of the deviation of the real exchange rate from the estimated equilibrium one was found to be somewhat more than two years.