Working Papers
January 1, 0001
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January 1, 0001
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2003
May 1, 2003
The Role of Stock Markets in Current Account Dynamics: Evidence from the United States
Description: This paper tests a model of the role of stock markets in current account dynamics, developed in a companion paper. With U.S. data, the model performs better than the same model without stock markets. An insight given by the model is that the current account might help predict future stock market performance. This property receives some preliminary empirical confirmation. The results also suggest that stock markets matter to the current account dynamics.
May 1, 2003
Emerging Issues in Banking Regulation
Description: The paper provides an overview of the profound and rapid changes in banking brought about by technology and deregulation, and discusses the hurdles that will have to be negotiated for putting in place the three pillars-capital adequacy rules, supervision, and market discipline-of the bank regulatory framework envisioned by the New Basel Accord (Basel II). It argues that, especially for developing countries, finding the right balance between regulation, supervision, and market discipline is likely to be difficult. Considerable technical expertise as well as political discipline-which can be viewed as a fourth pillar-will be required to implement Basel II.
May 1, 2003
Foreign Exchange Intervention and the Australian Dollar: Has it Mattered?
Description: Since the Australian dollar was floated in December 1983, the Australian central bank (Reserve Bank of Australia) has actively intervened in the foreign exchange market. Using daily exchange rate and official intervention data from January 1984 to December 2001, this paper examines what effects, if any, foreign exchange operations by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have had on the level and volatility of the Australian dollar exchange rate. First, using an event study we evaluate the effectiveness of intervention by examining its direct effect on the level of the exchange rate. We find that over the period 1997-2001, the RBA has had some success in its intervention operations, by moderating the depreciating tendency of the Australian dollar. Second, we investigate the effects of RBA intervention policies on exchange rate volatility over the floating rate period. Our results indicate that intervention operations tend to be associated with an increase in exchange rate volatility, which suggests that official intervention may have added to market uncertainty. Overall, the effects of RBA intervention are quite modest on both the level and the volatility of the Australian dollar exchange rate.
May 1, 2003
Imf Conditionality and Program Ownership: A Case for Streamlined Conditionality
Description: Program conditionality and ownership are important considerations in the IMF's current rethinking of program design. This paper contributes to the literature by developing a theory of program conditionality and ownership on the basis of Cumulative Prospect Theory. The policymaker may value a set of programs, each with fewer conditions, more than an extended program with as many conditions. This valuation bias is greater in ambiguity (Knightian uncertainty) than under uncertainty. If greater valuation of a program engenders more explicit and implicit ownership, then programs with fewer conditions may have a better chance of success. Less is more.
May 1, 2003
Foreign Exchange Intervention in Developing and Transition Economies: Results of a Survey
Description: Based on evidence obtained from the IMF's 2001 Survey on Foreign Exchange Market Organization, the author argues that, for several reasons, some central banks in developing and transition economies may be able to conduct foreign exchange intervention more effectively than the central banks of developed countries issuing the major international currencies. First, these central banks do not always fully sterilize their foreign exchange interventions. In addition, they issue regulations and conduct their foreign exchange operations in a way that increases the central bank's information advantage and the size of their foreign exchange intervention relative to foreign exchange market turnover. Some of the central banks also use moral suasion to support their foreign exchange interventions.
May 1, 2003
Cross-Country and Cross-Sector Analysis of Transparency of Monetary and Financial Policies
Description: In this paper we construct indices of transparency of monetary and financial policies, based on self-evaluations carried out by 135 IMF member countries in 1999, and use them to identify transparency patterns across different policies and country groups. We find that across all countries, transparency is highest in the formulation and conduct of monetary policy and lowest in insurance supervision and deposit-insurance oversight. Across country groups having similar political/economic characteristics, the average degree of transparency is highest in advanced countries and lowest in developing ones for both monetary policy and those financial policies for which there are differences between country group means.
May 1, 2003
The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in a Commodity Exporting Country: The Case of Russia
Description: Questions about external competitiveness, exchange rate misalignment, and the appropriate exchange rate policy feature prominently in the Russian policy debate. This paper furthers the debate by estimating empirically Russia's equilibrium real exchange rate (ERER)-that is, the rate consistent with the long-run economic fundamentals-and sheds light on the extent to which exchange rate policy should be changed. The paper confirms that the ERER reflects both productivity and the terms of trade. It suggests that Russia should target a significant medium-term current account deterioration and a real appreciation perhaps exceeding 10 percent. However, this latter number remains very sensitive to the assumed long-run oil prices.
May 1, 2003
Pick Your Poison: The Exchange Rate Regime and Capital Account Volatility in Emerging Markets
Description: We characterize a country's exchange rate regime by how its central bank channels a capital account shock across three variables: exchange depreciation, interest rates, and international reserve flows. Structural vector autoregression estimates for Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey reveal such responses, both contemporaneously and over time. Capital account shocks are further shown to affect output growth and inflation. The nature and magnitude of these effects may depend on the exchange rate regime.