Working Papers
2003
September 1, 2003
Financial Deepening, Inequality, and Growth: A Model-Based Quantitative Evaluation
Description: We propose a coherent unified approach to the study of the linkages among economic growth, financial structure, and inequality, bringing together disparate theoretical and empirical literature. That is, we show how to conduct model-based quantitative research on transitional paths. With analytical and numerical methods, we calibrate and make tractable a prototype canonical model and take it to an application, namely, Thailand 1976-1996, an emerging economy in a phase of economic expansion with uneven financial deepening and increasing inequality. We broadly replicate the actual data, test the model formally, and identify anomalies.
September 1, 2003
Are Immigrant Remittance Flows a Source of Capital for Development?
Description: The role of remittances in development and economic growth is not well understood. This is partly because the literatures on the causes and effects of remittances remain separate. We develop a framework that links the motivation for remittances with their effect on economic activity. Because remittances take place under asymmetric information and economic uncertainty, there exists a significant moral hazard problem. The implication is that remittances have a negative effect on economic growth. We test this prediction using panel methods on a large sample of countries. The results indicate that remittances do have a negative effect on economic growth, which indicates that the moral hazard problem in remittances is severe.
September 1, 2003
The Fiscal Smile: The Effectiveness and Limits of Fiscal Stabilizers
Description: We study the smoothing impact of fiscal stabilizers (proxied by government expenditures or revenues) on business cycle volatility for a panel of EU countries in the period 1970-99. The results show that the business cycle volatility smoothing effect of fiscal stabilizers may revert at high levels. We present evidence that for government expenditure ratios exceeding an estimated value of about 38 percent, a further expansion in the size of the government could actually lead to an increase in cyclical volatility. This may call for a reconsideration of the use of fiscal stabilizers for business cycle smoothing.
September 1, 2003
Nominal Anchors in the CIS
Description: Monetary policy has become increasingly important in the countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) as fiscal adjustment and structural reforms have taken root. Inflation has been brought down to relatively low levels in almost all of these countries, raising the question of what should be the appropriate nominal anchor at this stage. Formally, almost all CIS countries have floating exchange rate regimes, yet in practice they manage their exchange rates very heavily, perhaps because of high levels of dollarization (i.e., they suffer from "fear of floating"). This paper explores the issues underlying the choice of a nominal anchor in CIS countries and seeks to assess whether the present mixed regime will prove durable.
September 1, 2003
Debt Relief, Additionality, and Aid Allocation in Low Income Countries
Description: This paper models the resource implications of debt relief provided to low-income countries (LICs). Obtaining debt relief does not necessarily lead to individual aid-dependent countries receiving more overall resources from the donor community. Preliminary cross-section estimates suggest that debt relief provided to low-income countries in the period 1996 2000 neither crowded out other non-debt relief-related aid flows to the debtors concerned nor created significant extra net resources for those countries. While it is too early to fully assess the resource implications of the enhanced HIPC Initiative, this paper provides a possible approach to such an evaluation.
September 1, 2003
Measuring Contagion with a Bayesian Time-Varying Coefficient Model
Description: We propose using a Bayesian time-varying coefficient model estimated with Markov chain-Monte Carlo methods to measure contagion empirically. The proposed measure works in the joint presence of heteroskedasticity and omitted variables and does not require knowledge of the timing of the crisis. It distinguishes contagion not only from interdependence but also from structural breaks and can be used to investigate positive as well as negative contagion. The proposed measure appears to work well using both simulated and actual data.
August 20, 2003
What Would a Development-Friendly WTO Architecture Really Look Like?
Description: This paper elaborates on a number of key principles that need to underpin a coherent and development-friendly architecture for the WTO. The key principles include enlarging the scope of WTO bargaining to include labor flows as well as capital flows; creating a structure that would provide a balance between furthering liberalization and providing some discretion or policy space to accommodate the inevitable political constraints; and minimizing the extent of regulatory harmonization. These principles, while applicable to all countries, may have less immediate relevance in addressing the problems of the least developed countries.
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