Working Papers
2003
October 1, 2003
Priorities for Further Fiscal Reforms in the Commonwealth of Independent States
Description: Building on the substantial progress made in establishing fiscal systems consistent with market economies, the paper identifies priorities for further fiscal structural reforms among the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries. Activities of extra budgetary accounts and quasi-fiscal activities need to be brought into the budget framework. Although there is room for improvements, the CIS countries now have, broadly, levels of tax revenues and expenditures not out of line with the international norm, taking into account income levels. The main challenges they face are to further increase the market friendliness of taxation and to implement an efficiency-improving structural reform of the expenditure system while strengthening control and accountability.
October 1, 2003
Of Openess and Distance: Trade Developments in the Commonwealth of Independent States, 1993-2002
Description: This paper analyzes developments in the structure of trade in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) during the transition decade, and finds that it changed less than in other transition economies. Trade openness of the CIS increased between 1993 and 1997, but has fallen to a lower-level plateau since then owing to regional and country-specific factors. These include slower progress in transition, geographic aspects, restrictions on trade, governance and corruption problems, weak infrastructure, lack of regional cooperation, and political conflicts. Regression results show that trade openness of the CIS countries would likely increase substantially if market-oriented reforms were pursued more vigorously.
October 1, 2003
Real and Distributive Effects of Petroleum Price Liberalization: The Case of Indonesia
Description: The impact of higher petroleum prices on the aggregate price level, real growth, and income distribution is appraised within a multisector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. A reduction in the government subsidy raises petroleum prices and production costs throughout the economy. Consumer demand, production, and income decline as output prices increase and consumer purchasing power decreases. The model is applied to and calibrated for Indonesia. The simulated results predict a slight increase in price level and a slight decrease in output. An important result is that urban household groups will be the most significantly affected by the subsidy reduction.
October 1, 2003
The Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuationson Output and Prices: Evidence From Developing Countries
Description: The paper examines the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on real output and the price level in a sample of 33 developing countries. The theoretical model decomposes movements in the exchange rate into anticipated and unanticipated components. Unanticipated currency fluctuations help to determine aggregate demand through exports, imports, and the demand for domestic currency, and aggregate supply through the cost of imported intermediate goods. Anticipated exchange rate depreciation, through the supply channel, has limited effects on output growth and inflation. Unanticipated currency fluctuations appear more significant, with varying effects on output growth and price inflation across developing countries.
October 1, 2003
Promoting Fiscal Transparency the Complementary Roles of the Imf, Financial Markets and Civil Society
Description: This paper explores initiatives to date by the IMF, financial markets, and civil society organizations to assess and utilize information on fiscal transparency. The results of surveys and interviews of rating agency analysts and surveys of civil society organizations on their level of awareness of, and use of IMF fiscal transparency assessments are presented. The paper then considers the relative roles of the IMF, the private sector, and civil society organizations in assessing and promoting fiscal transparency, and the scope for greater complementarity among their roles. The paper concludes with a number of suggestions for making the IMF's fiscal transparency initiatives more effective.
October 1, 2003
Prudential Issues in Less Diversified Economies
Description: This paper examines the prudential issues associated with credit concentration in less diversified economies (LDEs), which are identified as countries where one or two sectors represent a large share of exports. In preparing this analysis, the characteristics of their financial and banking systems and their interactions with the real sector are studied. The paper also examines the limitations on portfolio diversification confronting banks in these countries, both from the viewpoint of the real sector and of the financial system. The paper finds that banks in LDEs, particularly in low-income countries, appear to face higher risk than their peers in more diversified economies and makes suggestions for policy options and regulatory practices which could be encouraged in such systems.
October 1, 2003
Dealing with Increased Risk of Natural Disasters: Challenges and Options
Description: Natural disaster risk is emerging as an increasingly important constraint on economic development and poverty reduction. This paper first sets out the key stylized facts in the area-that the costs of disaster have been increasing, seem set to continue to increase, and bear especially heavily on the poorest. It then reviews the key economic issues at stake, focusing in particular on the actual and prospective roles of, and interaction between, market instruments and public interventions in dealing with disaster risk. Key sources of market failure include the difficulty of risk spreading and, perhaps even more fundamental, the Samaritan's dilemma: the underinvestment in protective measures associated with the rational expectation that others will provide support if disaster occurs. Innovations addressing each of these are discussed.
September 16, 2003
From Program to Performance Budgeting: The Challenge for Emerging Market Economies
Description: Many emerging market economies are trying to improve their budget processes and move to performance-based budgeting. This paper first reviews the evolution of the "new" performance budgeting model, increasingly being applied in industrial countries. By identifying its main components, the tasks faced by emerging market economies when converting their present budget systems to this model are determined. It is recognized that this conversion will not be easy and will require four major reform elements. First, any existing program structure must be set in the wider context of strategic budget planning and medium-term budget frameworks. Second, this typically involves redesigning and refining existing program structures. Third, existing budget-costing systems and associated skills will probably need to be improved. Fourth, and perhaps most difficult, a new system of accountability and budget incentives needs to be introduced. For emerging market economies, these should be viewed as the prerequisites for a successful introduction of the new performance-budgeting model.
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