Working Papers
2004
March 1, 2004
Sovereign Debt Defaults and Financing Needs
Description: We construct a financial vulnerability indicator that is consistent with the theoretical literature on determinants of defaults. It is based on the amount of new foreign financing that is needed to avoid a default or an import adjustment, expressed as a proportion of the country's sources of foreign currency. As the need for new foreign financing increases, so does a country's financial vulnerability. The indicator has a higher correlation with default episodes than other indicators used in previous studies. In addition, the level at which it leads to a high probability of default is comparable across countries.
March 1, 2004
Aid and the Dutch Disease in Low-Income Countries: Informed Diagnoses for Prudent Prognoses
Description: This paper demonstrates that the Dutch disease need not materialize in low-income countries that can draw on their idle productive capacity to satisfy the aid-induced increased demand. Diagnoses on, and prognoses for, the Dutch disease should take into account country-specific circumstances to avoid ill-advised policies. The paper emphasizes that using public resources inefficiently can be more painful than real exchange rate appreciations, which may not necessarily embody the Dutch disease.
March 1, 2004
When is Growth Pro-Poor? Cross-Country Evidence
Description: Growth is pro-poor if the poverty measure of interest falls. This implies three potential sources of pro-poor growth: (a) a high rate of growth of average incomes; (b) a high sensitivity of poverty to growth in average incomes; and (c) a poverty-reducing pattern of growth in relative incomes. I empirically decompose changes in poverty in a large sample of developing countries into these components. In the medium run, most of the variation in changes in poverty is due to growth, suggesting that policies and institutions that promote broad-based growth should be central to pro-poor growth. Most of the remainder is due to poverty-reducing patterns of growth in relative incomes, rather than differences in the sensitivity of poverty to growth in average incomes. Cross-country evidence provides little guidance on policies and institutions that promote these other sources of pro-poor growth.
March 1, 2004
Domestic Debt Markets in Sub-Saharan Africa
Description: This study discusses the role of domestic debt markets in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) based on a new dataset covering 27 SSA countries during the 20-year period 1980-2000. The study finds that domestic debt markets in these countries are generally small, highly short-term in nature, and often have a narrow investor base. Domestic interest payments present a significant burden to the budget, despite much smaller domestic than foreign indebtedness. The use of domestic debt is also found to have significantly crowded out private sector lending. Finally, the study identifies significant differences between the size, cost, and maturity structure of domestic debt markets in HIPCs and non-HIPCs.
March 1, 2004
India in the 1980's and 1990's: A Triumph of Reforms
Description: Bradford DeLong and Dani Rodrik have argued that reforms in India cannot be credited with higher growth because the growth rate crossed the 5 percent mark in the 1980s, well before the launch of the July 1991 reforms. This is a wrong reading of the Indian experience for two reasons. First, liberalization was already under way during the 1980s and played a crucial role in stimulating growth during that decade. Second, growth in the 1980s was fragile and unsustainable. The more systematic and systemic reforms of the 1990s, discussed here in detail, gave rise to more sustainable growth. The paper concludes by explaining why the growth rate in India nevertheless continues to trail that of China.
March 1, 2004
Public Expenditure Management in Francophone Africa: A Cross-Country Analysis
Description: There are strong similarities between the French and French-inspired African PEM systems in terms of the legal setting, rules, and procedures. However, there are differences in practice, particularly in accounting and reporting, audit, and external control. Among the African countries themselves, there are many common features but also marked differences in audit and external control.
March 1, 2004
Forecasting Commodity Prices: Futures Versus Judgment
Description: This paper assesses the performance of three types of commodity price forecasts—those based on judgment, those relying exclusively on historical price data, and those incorporating prices implied by commodity futures. For most of the 15 commodities in the sample, spot and futures prices appear to be nonstationary and to form a cointegrating relation. Spot prices tend to move toward futures prices over the long run, and error-correction models exploiting this feature produce more accurate forecasts. The analysis indicates that on the basis of statistical- and directional-accuracy measures, futures-based models yield better forecasts than historical-data-based models or judgment, especially at longer horizons.
March 1, 2004
The Political Economy of Conditional and Unconditional Foreign Assistance: Grants vs. Loan Rollovers
Description: Improving the effectiveness of financial assistance programs is a priority of international financial institutions (IFIs). This paper examines the effectiveness of alternative assistance instruments in a dynamic political economy framework. Economic policies of the receiving country are distorted by the influence of a domestic interest group. The assistance-providing IFI aims at reducing these distortions. The IFI provides assistance either as grants or loans, and either conditionally on reducing policy distortions or unconditionally. The paper shows that, other things constant, one-time grants are more effective than loan rollovers when assistance is unconditional, but that the opposite is true when assistance is conditional.
March 1, 2004
Competitiveness in Bulgaria: An Assessment of the Real Effective Exchange Rate
Description: This paper presents an empirical analysis of the medium- and long-term determinants of the real (effective) exchange rate (RER) of the Bulgarian lev using elements from the natural real exchange rate (NATREX) and the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) approaches. The results indicate that the RER is driven by fundamentals, including labor productivity, terms of trade, world real interest rates, gross savings, and foreign direct investment. The model also shows that there is no significant misalignment of the Bulgarian lev.
March 1, 2004
China: International Trade and WTO Accession
Description: China's increasing integration with the global economy has contributed to sustained growth in international trade. Its exports have become more diversified, and greater penetration of industrial country markets has been accompanied by a surge in China's imports from all regions-especially Asia, where China plays an increasingly central role in regional specialization. Tariff reforms have been implemented in China since the 1980s; and, with its recent WTO accession, China has committed itself to additional reforms that are farreaching and challenging. Sustained implementation of these commitments would further deepen China's international integration and generate benefits for most partner countries.