Working Papers
2004
July 1, 2004
Debt Maturity and the International Financial Architecture
Description: This paper presents a theory of the maturity of international sovereign debt and derives its implications for the reform of the international financial architecture. It presents a general equilibrium model in which the need to roll over external debt disciplines the policies of debtor countries but makes them vulnerable to unwarranted debt crises owing to bad shocks. The paper presents a welfare analysis of several measures that have been discussed in recent debates, such as the adoption of renegotiation-friendly clauses in debt contracts and the establishment of an international bankruptcy regime for sovereigns.
July 1, 2004
When in Peril, Retrench: Testing the Portfolio Channel of Contagion
Description: One plausible mechanism through which financial market shocks may propagate across countries is through the effect of past gains and losses on investors' risk aversion. We first present a simple model on how heterogeneous changes in investors' risk aversion affect portfolio decisions and stock prices. Second, we empirically show that, when funds' returns are below average, they adjust their holdings toward the average (or benchmark) portfolio. In other words, they tend to sell the assets of countries in which they were "overweight," increasing their exposure to countries in which they were "underweight." Based on this insight, we construct a matrix of financial interdependence reflecting the extent to which countries share overexposed funds. This index can improve predictions about which countries are likely to be affected by contagion from crisis centers.
July 1, 2004
Parity Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Fast, Slow or Not At All?
Description: Consensus estimates put the half-life of deviations from purchasing power parity (PPP) at about four years (Rogoff, 1996). However, conventional least squares estimates of half-lives are biased downward. Accordingly, as a preferred measure of the persistence of real exchange rate shocks, this study uses median-unbiased estimators of the half-life of deviations from parity, which correct for the downward bias of conventional estimators. The paper tests for PPP using real effective exchange rate data for 90 developed and developing countries in the post-Bretton Woods period. Support for PPP is found, as the majority of countries experience finite deviations of real exchange rates from parity. The speed of parity reversion is found to be typically much faster for developed countries than for developing countries, and to be considerably faster for countries with flexible nominal exchange rate regimes in comparison with countries having fixed nominal exchange rate regimes.
July 1, 2004
Monetary Policy, Monetary Areas, and Financial Development with Electronic Money
Description: Electronic money (e-money), as a network good, could become an important form of currency in the future. Such a development could affect monetary policy effectiveness. If an increased use of e-money substantially limits the demand for central bank reserves, this limitation would require changes in the central bank operational target and a closer coordination of monetary and fiscal policies. Also, the optimal size of monetary unions would be different. However, the current level of e-money use does not seem to pose a threat to the stability of the financial system. Thus, central banks can successfully implement the objectives of monetary policy.
July 1, 2004
The Contingent Claims Approach to Corporate Vulnerability Analysis: Estimating Default Risk and Economy-Wide Risk Transfer
Description: In this paper, we examine the ability of the contingent claims approach (CCA) to identify corporate sector and economy-wide vulnerabilities. We apply the Moody's MfRisk model, which uses aggregated CCA principles, to assess vulnerabilities retroactively in two historical country cases. The results indicate that the method may prove helpful in identifying corporate sector vulnerabilities and estimating the associated value of risk transfer across interrelated balance sheets of the corporate, financial, and public sectors.
July 1, 2004
A New Approach to Taxing Financial Intermediation Services Under a Value Added Tax
Description: This paper contains a proposal (referred to as the "modified reverse-charging" approach) to tax financial intermediation services under a VAT. At the heart of the proposal is the application of a reverse charge that shifts the collection of the VAT on deposit interest from depositors to banks, in conjunction with the establishment of a franking mechanism managed by banks that effectively transfers the VAT so collected to borrowers as credits against the VAT on their loan interest on a transaction-by-transaction basis. The proposal is fully compatible with an invoice-credit VAT and is capable of delivering the correct theoretical result at minimal administrative costs.
July 1, 2004
Assessing the Assessment: A Critical Look At the June 2003 Assessment of the United Kingdom'S Five Tests for Euro Entry
Description: This paper provides a framework for evaluating the decision to enter a currency area, including the best timing for entry, and uses it to evaluate the assessment of the five tests for euro entry published by the U.K. Treasury in June 2003. The breadth and depth of its assessment is impressive by any standard. Nonetheless, this paper points at some areas that deserve to be explored further in future assessments. Covering these areas would not necessarily have changed the assessment's conclusion, namely that the case for entry is not yet "clear and unambiguous,." but it would have strengthened any conclusion reached. In addition, the paper highlights that in several areas relevant to the entry decision, the margin for uncertainty will remain significant, regardless of any reasonable attempt to reduce it.
July 1, 2004
Ambiguity, Transparency, and Institutional Strength
Description: Institutional transparency makes future contingencies more easily predictable for investors. Greater transparency can be achieved through vertical and horizontal integration of policy rules, which may result in lower Knightian uncertainty (ambiguity). In a model based on cumulative prospect theory, for a given probability and payoff structure, expected return on investment is higher in more transparent countries; therefore, those countries attract more investment and grow faster than less transparent countries. Lower transparency may result in inherently higher volatility.
July 1, 2004
Sources of Growth in the Democratic Republic of the Congo: A Cointegration Approach
Description: The paper investigates the sources of growth in the Democratic Republic of the Congo since 1960 and evaluates the relative importance of total factor productivity growth and factor accumulation, using a cointegration method and a growth accounting framework. The main findings confirm that poor economic policies and bad governance (through their effects on total factor productivity and capital accumulation) contributed to the country's economic decline during the 40-year period, 1960-2000. Looking forward, the paper finds that the right policies are being put in place to pave the way for a restoration of economic growth.
July 1, 2004
An Approach to Long-Term Fiscal Policy Analysis
Description: This paper proposes an approach to setting fiscal policy that factors in the longer-term budgetary pressures that countries face owing, in particular, to population aging and rising health care costs. The approach attempts to overcome the difficulties in evaluating economic trade-offs and social welfare over extended periods. Long-term fiscal projections from the "Intergenerational Report" published as part of the Australian budget in May 2002 are used in a simple model of the Australian economy to illustrate some of the longer-term trade-offs that need to be considered in framing budgets over the medium term. These illustrative simulations, in particular, point out the importance of smoothing fiscal adjustment over time and, hence, the need for careful planning. Smoothing fiscal adjustment, however, raises a new set of questions regarding burden sharing across generations and what costs should be shared.