Working Papers
January 1, 0001
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2004
July 1, 2004
Caribbean Business Cycles
Description: This paper identifies and describes key features of Caribbean business cycles during the period 1963-2003. In particular, the chronologies in the Caribbean classical cycle (expansions and contractions in the level of output) and growth cycle (periods of above-trend and below-trend rates of economic growth) are identified. It is found that Caribbean classical cycles are longer-lived than those of developed countries and non-Caribbean developing countries. While there are large asymmetries in the duration and amplitude of phases in the Caribbean classical cycle, on both measures the Caribbean growth cycle is much more symmetric. Further, there is some evidence of synchronization among the classical cycles of Caribbean countries, and stronger evidence of synchronization of Caribbean growth cycles.
July 1, 2004
The Role of Mature Market Mutual Funds in Emerging Markets: Myth or Mayhem?
Description: The expansion of the global mutual funds industry has been characterized by growth in mature as well as emerging markets. This has clearly contributed to the development of local securities markets in emerging market economies, which in turn, has been key in attracting investment inflows from overseas funds. A major concern, however, is that large foreign investors could significantly disrupt the stability of local capital markets in the event of a market shock, with systemic implications for the real economy. Our estimates suggest that while local investors remain the more important group in terms of market share, the influence of foreign funds cannot be discounted. Asset allocation decisions by mature market funds- both dedicated and crossover-in aggregate, could affect emerging markets. In particular, European mutual funds appear to play a much bigger role in emerging markets than their U.S. counterparts.
July 1, 2004
Choosing a Budget Management System: The Case of Rwanda
Description: Rwanda is making important choices concerning budget processes. A program-oriented budget framework is now used. A new Constitution, adopted in May 2003, has made some important choices concerning the public management system, including the balance of power between the executive and the legislature. Further choices are being made in an organic budget law (under discussion). Compared with the inherited budget management model, the responsibility of spending agencies is likely to be enhanced. Choices have yet to be made on the nationwide government accounting system, the precise role of the Senate in budgeting, and the pace of effective political decentralization.
July 1, 2004
Zimbabwe: A Quest for a Nominal Anchor
Description: This study examines the appropriateness of alternative intermediate monetary policy targets for Zimbabwe in light of the stability of the demand for money and the information content of financial variables for predicting price level movements. Results of the study indicate that a well-defined long-run demand relation exists for currency in circulation, but not for other monetary aggregates. Currency in circulation has strong information content for predicting future price level movements. The information content of other financial variables, such as the exchange rate and interest rates, is weaker. Statistical relationships break down of the outset of high inflation.
July 1, 2004
Private Finance and Public Policy
Description: This paper articulates a logical foundation-drawn from disparate literatures-for understanding why safeguarding financial stability is an important economic policy objective. The paper also explains why private aspects of finance provide broader social economic benefits and have the characteristics of public goods. Unique aspects of finance are examined, as are the linkages between finance, money, and the real economy. Sources of market imperfections in finance are identified and their implications are analyzed. The arguments imply that reaping the full private and social economic benefits of finance requires both private-collective and public-policy involvement as well as a delicate balance between maximizing the benefits of positive externalities (and public goods) and minimizing the costs (including potential instabilities) of other sources of market imperfections in finance.