Working Papers
2004
August 1, 2004
Bank Consolidation and Performance: The Argentine Experience
Description: We examine a large panel of more than 100 banks from Argentina to study the effects of bank consolidation on performance between December 1995 and December 2000, a period of heavy bank consolidation and relative calm. Overall, we find a positive and significant effect of bank consolidation on bank performance. Bank returns increase with consolidation, and insolvency risk is reduced. Additionally, the study suggests that mergers and privatizations have a beneficial effect on bank returns. The effects of a bank acquisition on return on equity is, however, negative. Acquisitions do not seem to have any effect on risk-adjusted returns. The study also finds that a bank's insolvency risk is reduced significantly through mergers and privatization and is unrelated to bank acquisitions.
August 1, 2004
Ghostbusting: Which Output Gap Measure Really Matters?
Description: This paper investigates various output gap measures in a simple inflation forecasting framework. Reflecting the cyclical position of an economy, an (unobservable) output gap has important implications for economic analysis. I construct and compare common output gap measures for five European countries. Since output above potential reflects domestic inflationary pressures, including a gap could improve the accuracy of autoregressive inflation forecasting. This assertion is tested in a simple simulated out-of-sample forecasting exercise for the period 1990-2002. The main conclusions are that an output gap rarely provides useful information and that there is no single best output gap measure across countries.
August 1, 2004
Are Developing Countries Better Off Spending Their Oil Wealth Upfront?
Description: We question the conventional view that it is optimal for government to maintain a stable level of spending out of oil wealth. We compare this conventional policy recommendation with one where government spends all of its oil revenues upfront, at the same rate as oil is extracted. Using a neoclassical growth model with positive external effects of public spending on consumption and productivity, we find that, if the economy is growing along the steady-state balanced path, the conventional view is validated. However, if the economy starts with a lower capital stock, the welfare ranking across two policies can be reversed.
August 1, 2004
Explaining Efficiency Differences Among Large German and Austrian Banks
Description: Cost-efficiency, scale efficiency, and productivity change are estimated by data envelopment analysis; and cost-efficiency is regressed on explanatory variables. No evidence is found for average productivity responding to deregulation over the period studied. State-owned banks are found to be more cost-efficient (likely owing to cheaper funds) and cooperative banks to be about as cost-efficient as private banks. Increasing economies of scale but decreasing economies of scope provide rationale for M&As among banks with similar product portfolios. Interbank and capital market funding is found to be more cost-efficient than deposits when the cost of retail networks is controlled for.
August 1, 2004
Risk Instability and the Pattern of Foreign Direct Investment in the Middle East and North Africa Region
Description: This paper demonstrates that instability associated with investment risk is critical in explaining the level of foreign direct investment for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries, which generally have higher investment risk than developed countries. The empirical results support this hypothesis, whether either the standard deviation or the interquartile range is used as a measure of instability, in a dynamic panel model. The paper recommends a reorientation of policies toward those with a longer-term focus in order to help lower the degree of risk instability for MENA countries.
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