Working Papers
January 1, 0001
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2004
September 1, 2004
What Do We Know About Tariff Incidence?
Description: This paper examines the question: Who bears the larger portion of the excess burden of a tariff-the country that imposes it, or a country that it trades with? For a country that can influence its terms of trade, there are two ways of approaching this question. This paper shows that under certain assumptions, the extra burden from a marginal change in the homecountry tariff is shared equally between the home and foreign country at a tariff rate equal to twice the optimal tariff for the home country. Also, the cumulative welfare effect of a tariff in the home country, relative to free trade, turns out to be equalized across countries when the home tariff equals four times its optimal tariff. The paper provides an application of these results and points policymakers to the types of data that are relevant if they want to negotiate over "burden sharing."
September 1, 2004
Quota Brokers
Description: This paper examines the role of middlemen (brokers) in an imperfect secondary market for quota licenses. Middlemen facilitate trade when markets are thin, as potential buyers and sellers find it difficult to meet and transact directly. However, in thin markets, middlemen also have the ability to influence the terms on which trades occur, and the wedge they create between the buying and selling price limits the extent to which they facilitate trade. We develop and simulate a model of quota broker behavior to examine their welfare implications.
September 1, 2004
Trade Liberalization, Exchange Rate Changes, and Tax Revenue in Sub-Saharan Africa
Description: Empirical evidence on the relationship between trade liberalization, exchange rates, and tax revenue is mixed. This paper examines these linkages anew. Using a panel of 22 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, over 1980-1996, we perform Generalized Method of Moment regressions to test this relationship. We find evidence that the relationship between trade liberalization and tax revenue is sensitive to the measure used to proxy trade liberalization, but that, in general, trade liberalization is not strongly linked to aggregate tax revenue or its components-though with one measure, it is linked to higher income tax revenue. Currency appreciation and higher inflation show some linkage to lower tax revenues or its components. These results show some partial consistency with previous findings, and support the notion that trade liberalization accompanied by appropriate macroeconomic policies can be undertaken in a way that preserves overall revenue yield.
September 1, 2004
Sources of Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa
Description: Analysis of 1960-2002 data shows that average real GDP growth in sub-Saharan Africa was low and decelerated continuously before starting to recover in the second part of the 1990s. Growth was driven primarily by factor accumulation with little role for total factor productivity (TFP) growth. The recent pickup in economic growth was accompanied by an increase in TFP growth, namely in the group of countries whose IMF-supported programs were judged to be on track. Average annual growth in the region, at 3½ percent during 1997-2002, is less than half of the estimated growth needed to halve the fraction of population living below $1 per day between 1990 and 2015, one of the Millennium Development Goals.
September 1, 2004
Understanding India’s Services Revolution
Description: This paper analyzes the factors behind the recent growth of India's services sector. The high growth of services output in the 1990s was mostly due to the rapid expansion of communication, banking, business services (including the IT sector) and community services. While factors such as a high income elasticity of demand for services, increasing input usage of services by other sectors, and rising exports, were important in boosting services growth in the 1990s, supply side factors including reforms and technological advances also played significant roles. Going forward, the growth potential of Indian services exports is well known, but the paper also finds considerable scope for growth in the Indian service economy provided that deregulation continues. In addition, the paper shows that employment growth in the Indian services sector has been quite modest, thus underscoring the need for industry and agriculture to also grow rapidly.
September 1, 2004
The Impact of Preference Erosionon Middle-Income Developing Countries
Description: Preference erosion has become an obstacle to multilateral trade liberalization, as beneficiaries of trade preferences have an incentive to resist reductions in mostfavored- nation (MFN) tariffs. This study identifies middle-income developing countries that are vulnerable to export revenue loss from preference erosion. It concludes that the problem is heavily concentrated in a sub-set of preference beneficiaries-primarily small island economies dependent on sugar, banana, and-to a lesser extent-textile exports. Accordingly, measures to help mitigate the impact of preference erosion can be closely targeted at the countries at risk.
September 1, 2004
The Challenge of Fiscal Adjustment in a Democracy: The Case of India
Description: India's fiscal problem has deep roots in its federal fiscal system, where multiple players find it difficult to coordinate adjustment. The size and closed nature of the Indian economy, aided by its deep domestic capital market and large captive pool of domestic savings, has disguised the cost of fiscal laxity and complicated the building of a consensus on reform. The new fiscal responsibility act establishes a new rules-based system to overcome this coordination failure. To strengthen the framework, we recommend an autonomous scorekeeper and the extension of similar rules to the state governments as part of a comprehensive reform of the federal system.
September 1, 2004
Can Public Discussion Enhance Program Ownership?
Description: We use the concepts of deliberative democracy from political science and cheap talk from economics to develop a better understanding of how public discussion can contribute to building and demonstrating ownership of IMF programs and hence to program success. We argue that ownership is more complex than many discussions of it would suggest, since it must include not only the willingness to carry out a program, but also the technical capacity and especially the political ability to do so. Public discussion can serve a number of purposes, each of which can be better understood by moving to a more formal treatment. We illustrate our points by means of simple examples. We also consider some of the drawbacks of public discussion, especially as applied to IMF programs.
September 1, 2004
External Debt Sustainability in HIPC Completion Point Countries
Description: This paper examines a number of structural factors affecting the external debt sustainability of HIPC completion point countries. It shows that (i) while comparing favorably with other lowincome countries, the policy and institutional frameworks of completion point countries in general are still relatively weak, and their debt management practices remain inferior to international standards; and (ii) their export base remains narrow and fiscal revenue mobilization lags behind, even compared with many other low-income countries. Achieving and maintaining long-term debt sustainability in completion point countries will require continued structural reforms, timely donor support, and close monitoring of new borrowing in support of sound macroeconomic policies.