Working Papers
January 1, 0001
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2004
November 1, 2004
Sovereign Borrowing by Developing Countries: What Determines Market Access?
Description: What determines the ability of governments from developing countries to access international credit markets? We examine this question using detailed data on sovereign bond issuances and public syndicated bank loans since 1982. We find that traditional measures of a country’s links with the rest of the world (such as trade openness) and traditional liquidity and macroeconomic indicators do not help much in explaining market access. However, a country’s vulnerability to shocks and the perceived quality of its policies and institutions appear to be important determinants of its government’s ability to tap the markets. We are unable to detect strong punishment of defaulting countries by credit markets.
November 1, 2004
On the Design and Effectiveness of Targeted Expenditure Programs
Description: This paper argues that both horizontal and intertemporal competition among recipient governments are needed in order to ensure incentives for effective utilization of targeted transfers. This has implications for budgeting frameworks and the types of information needed that might be amenable to formal contracting between the levels of government.
November 1, 2004
A Model of the Imf As a Coinsurance Arrangement
Description: The paper shows that a coinsurance arrangement among countries can, in principle, play a useful role in helping countries bear the risks involved in developing their economies and integrating into the global financial system. The operation of the coinsurance arrangement is examined under different loan contracts offered by the IMF. The analysis suggests that, if the IMF's objective is to safeguard its resources and be concerned about the welfare of the borrower, an ex ante loan contract is more likely to create the right incentives-induce higher effort by member countries to avoid and overcome crises-than an ex-post loan contract. Such ex ante contracts highlight the need for precommitment to contend with the Samaritan’s dilemma and time inconsistency. The paper also shows that state-contingent repayment schemes are needed to deal with King Lear's dilemma.
November 1, 2004
Exchange Rate Policy and the Management of Official and Private Capital Flows in Africa
Description: We focus on the management of highly persistent shocks to aid flows, including PRSP-related increases in net inflows, in three “post-stabilization.” African economies with de jure flexible exchange rates. Such shocks have beneficent long-run effects, but when currency substitution is high they can produce dramatic macroeconomic management problems in the short run. What is the appropriate mix of money and exchange rate targeting in such cases, and what is the role of temporary sterilization? We analyze these issues in an intertemporal optimizing model that allows a portion of aid to be devoted to reducing the government’s seigniorage requirement. This creates a strong link between official aid flows and private capital flows. When the credibility of policymakers’ commitment to low inflation is firm, some degree of dirty floating, with little or no sterilization of increases in the monetary base, is the most attractive approach in the short run.
November 1, 2004
What Determines Long-Run Macroeconomic Stability? Democratic Institutions
Description: We examine the deep determinants of long-run macroeconomic stability in a cross-country framework. We find that conflict, openness, and democratic political institutions have a strong and statistically significant causal impact on macroeconomic stability. Surprisingly the most robust relationship of the three is for democratic institutions. A one standard deviation increase in democracy can reduce nominal instability nearly fourfold. This impact is robust to alternative measures of democracy, samples, covariates, and definitions of conflict. It is particularly noteworthy that a variety of nominal pathologies discussed in the recent macroeconomic literature, such as procyclical policy, original sin, and debt intolerance, have common origins in weak democratic institutions. We also find evidence that democratic institutions both strongly influence monetary policy and have a strong, independent positive effect on stability after controlling for various policy variables.
November 1, 2004
The Greenbook and U.S. Monetary Policy
Description: Although very attractive both theoretically and empirically, Taylor rules imply mechanical responses by the policy variable (interest rate) to fundamental ones (inflation and output gap). This study looks for empirical evidence of a more sophisticated monetary policy, one which takes into account expected future developments. An important piece of information added is the "Greenbook" forecast series, calculated by the Federal Reserve staff and which allow evaluation of expected inflation shocks. These shocks are significant in the estimated Taylor rule, confirming that policymaking is forward looking. This paper also demonstrates that a simple Taylor rule may be a misspecification if policymakers have in mind a timevarying inflation target.
November 1, 2004
Are there Negative Returns to Aid? a Comment
Description: Amid controversies surrounding aid effectiveness, an increasing number of empirical studies find support for the idea that aid can spur growth and that the aid-growth relationship is nonlinear. Lensink and White propose a model to illustrate the possible existence of what has been labeled an "aid Laffer curve." This short paper highlights the model's weaknesses and suggests that the model does not fulfill the purpose of illustrating the possible existence of negative returns to aid.
November 1, 2004
Measuring Disinflation Credibility in Emerging Markets: A Bayesian Approach with An Application to Turkey
Description: This paper presents an empirical measure of disinflation credibility and discusses its evolution in Turkey since the 2001 crisis. The results indicate that credibility has improved markedly over this period, boding well for the future of disinflation in Turkey.
November 1, 2004
Wage Compression, Employment Restrictions and Unemployment: The Case of Mauritius
Description: Governments often intervene in labor markets with the aim of reducing inequality and promoting employment. Such intervention often results in wage compression and restrictions on how firms use their workers. This paper investigates the impact of such interventions on the labor market conditions faced by low-skill workers in Mauritius. It finds that even relatively minor intervention can dramatically increase the fragility of jobs, the length of unemployment spells, as well as the extent of unemployment and labor market churning. With institutions of the type studied here common across many different types of countries, these results have relatively general implications.