Working Papers
2005
April 1, 2005
Personal Income Tax Reform: Concepts, Issues, and Comparative Country Developments
Description: This paper provides a largely nontechnical survey of concepts and issues related to the reform of the personal income tax, covering both base and rate aspects of the tax, as well as fundamental reform options. It also covers recent developments in selected OECD countries.
April 1, 2005
Cataclysms and Currencies: Does the Exchange Rate Regime Matter for Real Shocks?
Description: Does the choice of exchange rate regime affect the way an economy's adjustment to real shocks? Exploiting the randomness of natural shocks, this paper assesses empirically the often contrasting answers found in the theoretical literature. The evidence supports key themes in this literature, and points to an important tradeoff between regimes. First, adverse natural shocks are associated with both higher investment and foreign direct investment (FDI) only in developing countries with fixed rate regimes. Second, over a 24-month horizon, growth rebounds earlier in flexible rate regimes. Third, in the long run, more adverse shocks are associated with higher growth and investment only in predominantly fixed regimes. Thus, while claims of faster adjustment to real shocks under flexible rate arrangements have merit, so does the idea that exchange rate variability can impede investment. And the benefits from faster adjustment may come at the cost of foregoing the long run productivity benefits embodied in the larger investment response in fixed rate regimes.
April 1, 2005
The Chinese Approach to Capital Inflows: Patterns and Possible Explanations
Description: In this paper, we adopt a cross-country perspective to examine the evolution of capital flows into China, both in terms of volumes and composition. China's inflows have generally been dominated by foreign direct investment (FDI), a pattern that appears to be favorable in light of the recent literature on the experiences of developing countries with financial globalization. We provide a detailed documentation of the evolution of China's capital controls, a proximate determinant of the pattern of capital inflows. We also discuss a number of other intriguing hypotheses that attempt to capture the "deeper" causes underlying China's approach to capital flows. In particular, we argue that some popular mercantilist-type arguments are inconsistent with the facts. We also analyze the recent rapid rise of China's international reserves and discuss its implications. Contrary to some popular perceptions, the dramatic surge in foreign exchange reserves since 2001 is mainly attributable to non-FDI capital inflows, rather than current account surpluses or FDI.
April 1, 2005
Managing the Interest Rate Risk of Indian Banks’ Government Securities Holdings
Description: The large holdings of government securities by banks in India draw attention to their risk as interest rates are at historical low levels. This paper measures such a risk using duration and value-at-risk methods and assesses its current management by banks. The main finding is that some public sector and old private banks are vulnerable to a reversal of the interest rate cycle, while foreign and new private banks have built adequate defenses. In this regard, the paper makes a number of recommendations regarding government policies and individual bank practices to manage interest rate risk.
April 1, 2005
Quantitative Assessment of a Financial System—Barbados
Description: A banking system module is incorporated into the Central Bank of Barbados's multisectoral macroeconomic forecasting model, and a medium-term forecast is generated for bank capitalization, profitability, liquidity and nonperforming loans. Stress tests are performed for the first year of the forecast, to test the banking system's resilience to real sector shocks. The analysis, which would in practice be only part of the vulnerability assessment, indicates that the banking system is stable and resilient to macroeconomic shocks of a type and magnitude that Barbados has experienced in the past.
April 1, 2005
Any Link Between Legal Central Bank Independence and Inflation? Evidence from Latin America and the Caribbean
Description: This paper reviews central bank legislation in 24 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean during the 1990s. Using panel regressions, we find a negative relationship between legal central bank independence (CBI) and inflation. This result holds for three alternative measures of CBI and after controlling for international inflation, banking crises, and exchange regimes. The result is also robust to the inclusion of a broader indicator of structural reforms that usually go along with changes in central bank legislation, illustrating the complementary nature of various aspects of economic reform. The paper fails, however, to find a causal relationship running from CBI to inflation.
April 1, 2005
Relating the Knowledge Production Function to Total Factor Productivity: An Endogenous Growth Puzzle
Description: The knowledge production function is central to R&D-based growth models. This paper empirically investigates the knowledge production function and intertemporal spillover effects using cointegration techniques. Time-series evidence suggests there are two long-run cointegrating relationships. The first captures a long-run knowledge production function; the second captures a long-run positive relationship between TFP and the knowledge stock. The results indicate the presence of strong intertemporal knowledge spillovers and that the long-run impact of the knowledge stock on TFP is small. This evidence is interpreted in light of existing theoretical and empirical evidence on endogenous growth.
April 1, 2005
Aging: Some Pleasant Fiscal Arithmetic
Description: Projections of age-related public expenditure growth have raised widespread concerns about fiscal sustainability. This paper examines how total expenditure would develop under four policy rules on public expenditure growth. Some simple arithmetic of expenditure, GDP, and population is reviewed and applied in simulations for 19 member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) over 2000-50. A general and a specific conclusion arise from the results in this paper: Generally, long-term expenditure projections could benefit from revisiting common assumptions on non-agerelated expenditure growth. Specifically, under realistic assumptions, the belt-tightening required to maintain fiscal sustainability under age-related spending pressures could be less painful than commonly thought.
April 1, 2005
Iraq: Considerations on Intergovernmental Fiscal Relations for the Constituent Assembly
Description: In preparing for the discussions of the Iraqi Constituent Assembly, IMF and World Bank staff and consultant experts presented to senior officials from the central and local governments in Iraq, including from Kurdistan, key options that might be relevant for the discussions. This paper reflects the thrust of the discussions, including the views on the options prepared by the Iraqi officials, and develops a short-term work plan for the benefit of the assembly.
April 1, 2005
Who is Still Haunted by the Specter of Communism? Explaining Relative Output Contractions Under Transition
Description: The paper analyzes the initial output decline in transition economies by estimating a crosssection model stressing two major factors-conflicts and the legacies of the Soviet period. We link the Soviet legacies in place at the outset of the transition to the subsequent path for the development of market-related institutions. Institutional development (as proxied by measures of corruption) is used as an intermediate variable. An instrumental variable approach is followed to derive estimates that are not biased by the possible endogeneity of corruption with respect to output developments. Assuming that the extent of Soviet legacies was positively correlated with the length of the communist rule allows us to use the years under the Soviet regime as an instrument.