Working Papers
2005
May 1, 2005
Three Attempts at Inflation Forecasting in Pakistan
Description: This paper presents three empirical approaches to forecasting inflation in Pakistan. The preferred approach is a leading indicators model in which broad money growth and private sector credit growth help forecast inflation. A univariate approach also yields reasonable forecasts, but seems less suited to capturing turning points. A vector autoregressive (VAR) model illustrates how monetary developments can be described by a Phillips-curve type relationship. We deal with potential parameter instability on account of fundamental changes in Pakistan's economic system by restricting our sample to more recent observations. Gregorian and Islamic calendar seasonality are addressed by using 12-month moving averages.
May 1, 2005
Technology Diffusion, Services, and Endogenous Growth in Europe. is the Lisbon Strategy Useful?
Description: We explore the role of business services in knowledge accumulation and growth and the determinants of knowledge diffusion including the role of distance. A continuous-time model is estimated on several European countries, Japan, and the United States. Policy simulations illustrate the benefits for EU growth of the deepening of the single market, the reduction of regulatory barriers, and the accumulation of technology and human capital. Our results support the basic insights of the Lisbon Agenda. Economic growth in Europe is enhanced to the extent that: trade in services increases, technology accumulation and diffusion increase, regulation becomes both less intensive and more uniform across countries, and human capital accumulation increases in all countries.
May 1, 2005
Outsourcing Tariff Evasion: A New Explanation for Entrepôt Trade
Description: Traditional explanations for indirect trade carried out through an entrepôt have focused on savings in transport costs and on the role of specialized agents in processing and distribution. We provide an alternative perspective based on the possibility that entrepôts may facilitate tariff evasion. Using data on direct exports to mainland China and indirect exports to it via Hong Kong SAR, we find that the indirect export rate rises with the Chinese tariff rate, even though there is no legal tax advantage to sending goods via Hong Kong SAR. We undertake a number of extensions to rule out plausible alternative hypotheses.
May 1, 2005
Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon: What Are the Consequences of China’s WTO Entry for India’s Trade?
Description: One of the most significant recent developments in world trade has been the entry of China into the World Trade Organization (WTO). This paper examines the implications of China's WTO accession for India's trade, using both econometrics and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. The paper analyzes how India stands to lose or gain from China's WTO entry in terms of both the direct and competitive channels.
May 1, 2005
Cross-Country Empirical Studies of Systemic Bank Distress: A Survey
Description: A rapidly growing empirical literature is studying the causes and consequences of bank fragility in present-day economies. The paper reviews the two basic methodologies adopted in cross-country empirical studies-the signals approach and the multivariate probability model-and their application to studying the determinants of banking crises. The use of these models to provide early warnings for crises is also reviewed, as are studies of the economic effects of banking crises and of the policies to forestall them. The paper concludes by identifying directions for future research.
May 1, 2005
International Risk Sharing and Currency Unions: The CFA Zones
Description: This paper explores income and consumption smoothing patterns among the member countries of each of the CFA zones-the CEMAC2 and the WAEMU3-during the period 1980-2000. I find that for the CEMAC, only about 15 percent of shocks to GDP are smoothed through the standard channels (that is, capital market, credit market, and remittances). On the other hand, I find that 44 percent of shocks are smoothed via foreign aid from France, and 5 percent via central bank contributions, while reserves pooling provides no shock smoothing. For the WAEMU, I find that only 13 percent of shocks are smoothed through the standard channels, while 63 percent are smoothed via foreign aid from France, 7 percent via central bank contributions, and no smoothing via reserves pooling. I compare these results with the risksharing pattern in the Unites States. I argue that creating public venture capital at a regional level might help promote free capital flows within each zone and alleviate the apparently insufficient degree of risk-sharing observed through the standard channels.
May 1, 2005
GDP Growth, Potential Output, and Output Gaps in Mexico
Description: This paper analyzes the sources of Mexico's economic growth since the 1960s and compares various decompositions of historical growth into its trend and cyclical components. The role of the implied output gaps in the inflationary process is then assessed. Looking ahead, the paper presents medium-term paths for GDP based on alternative assumptions for productivity growth rates. The results indicate that the most important factor underlying the slowdown in output growth was a decline in trend total factor productivity growth. Economic policy reforms and the introduction of NAFTA may have raised trend productivity growth in recent years. Further increases in productivity growth would appear necessary, however, to raise medium-term growth.
May 1, 2005
How Does Employment Protection Legislation Affect Unemployment in Tunisia? A Search Equilibrium Approach
Description: This paper applies a search matching model with firing restrictions to examine whether the existence of firing restrictions affects the outcome of the matching process and the natural rate of unemployment in Tunisia. The paper concludes that the removal of firing restrictions is likely to produce a favorable but limited impact on unemployment in Tunisia.
May 1, 2005
Is the Middle East and North Africa Region Achieving Its Trade Potential?
Description: This paper analyzes export performance in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) using a gravity model applied to panel data. It addresses two questions: (i) are there significant unexploited export markets for the MENA region?; and (ii) have integration efforts with the EU since the mid-1990s yielded positive results? The results suggest that several MENA countries are substantially underexploiting the United States as an export market. Moreover, the impact of integration efforts with the European Union has been moderate overall but significant in individual cases.
May 1, 2005
Insurance Companies in Emerging Markets
Description: This paper focuses on asset allocation decisions of life insurance companies in emerging markets. Mature market insurers allocate only a small fraction of their assets to emerging markets because of regulatory constraints, rating pressures, and currency risk. However, global insurers invest directly in emerging markets by setting up subsidiaries rather than through portfolio investment, and this trend is increasing. Local insurers largely remain captive investors of local instruments and provide stability to the domestic securities market. The regulatory regime and the liquidity and depth of local markets play an important role in asset allocation decisions of insurers. Insurance companies are increasingly adopting asset liability management and risk control measures. However, insufficiently developed local markets and regulatory interventions on the liabilities side often limit optimal asset allocation.