Working Papers
2005
October 1, 2005
The Role of Domestic and Foreign Investors in a Simple Model of Speculative Attacks
Description: We introduce local and foreign investors in a simple model of speculative attacks. Local investors have less tolerance for overvaluation of the fixed exchange rate because they tend to incur lower costs when taking a short position and possess better information, and because of moral hazard created by discriminatory government guarantees. On the other hand, the prospect of higher taxation after a balance of payments crisis deters speculation by locals compared to foreign investors. Finally, the lower the degree of exchange rate pass-through, the more likely domestic investors are tp take the lead during capital flight.
October 1, 2005
Revenue Administration Reform in Middle Eastern Countries, 1994-2004
Description: The paper provides an overview of revenue administration reforms implemented in Middle Eastern and North African countries over the past decade with IMF assistance. Although reforming tax and customs administration is neither quick nor simple, several countries in the region have embarked on comprehensive programs of reforms to modernize their revenue administration, and encouraging progress has been achieved. Experience shows that there are many challenges to be faced and that critical requirements need to be met, including political commitment, strong leadership, willingness to abandon ineffective practices; and establishment of reform projects with clear mandates, agreed objectives, and realistic timeframes.
October 1, 2005
Debt Maturity, Risk, and Asymmetric Information
Description: We test the implications of Flannery's (1986) and Diamond's (1991) models concerning the effects of risk and asymmetric information in determining debt maturity, and we examine the overall importance of informational asymmetries in debt maturity choices. We employ data on over 6,000 commercial loans from 53 large U.S. banks. Our results for low-risk firms are consistent with the predictions of both theoretical models, but our findings for high-risk firms conflict with the predictions of Diamond's model and with much of the empirical literature. Our findings also suggest a strong quantitative role for asymmetric information in explaining debt maturity.
October 1, 2005
Boom-Bust Cycles in Housing: The Changing Role of Financial Structure
Description: Why are housing markets so prone to boom-bust cycles? The mortgage market structure prior to the Savings and Loan crisis contributed to the volatility in real housing activity which, in turn, amplified the volatility in housing prices. The subsequent development of a national, market-based system of securitized mortgage finance has damped this boom-bust cycle. We test whether deviations of actual housing prices from values forecast by a model based on economic fundamentals have responded to the change in financial structure, and find that pricing errors have fallen significantly since the mid-1980s. Tests of the relative importance of the change in financial market structure versus the reduction of inflation over this period indicate a primary role for market structure in improving pricing efficiency.
October 1, 2005
International Reserves: Precautionary vs. Mercantilist Views, Theory and Evidence
Description: This paper compares the importance of precautionary and mercantilist motives in the hoarding of international reserves by developing countries. Overall, empirical results support precautionary motives; in particular, a more liberal capital account regime increases international reserves. Theoretically, large precautionary demand for international reserves arises as a self-insurance to avoid costly liquidation of long-term projects when the economy is susceptible to sudden stops. The welfare gain from the optimal management of international reserves is of a first-order magnitude, reducing the welfare cost of liquidity shocks from a first-order to a second-order magnitude.
October 1, 2005
Trinidad and tobago: The Energy Boom and Proposals for a Sustainable Fiscal Policy
Description: Trinidad and Tobago is experiencing an energy boom stronger than the ones in 1970s and 1980s. The main fiscal policy challenge is to ensure that the increased revenues from the ultimately exhaustible resources are used in a way that protects the competitiveness of the nonenergy sector, builds assets to ensure intergenerational equity, and provides a cushion for stabilization. This paper derives estimates of a sustainable level of primary fiscal balance using Friedman's permanent income hypothesis. These estimates can be used as a guide for the formulation of medium- and long-term fiscal policy frameworks.
October 1, 2005
Introducing Financial Management Information Systems in Developing Countries
Description: In the past decade, developing countries (DCs) have been encouraged to reform their public expenditure management systems and have increasingly embarked on major projects to computerize their government operations. Most popular among these have been projects to computerize government accounting and payment operations, by introducing government financial management information systems (FMISs). This paper investigates the reason for almost universal failure to implement and sustain FMISs in DCs. It starts with a review of the "received wisdom" in implementing these projects, and then analyzes problems in its application in the DC context to identify key factors to explain why FMIS projects have been so problematic. Based on the identified negative factors, suggestions for addressing them are offered in the hope of improving success rates.
October 1, 2005
Social Welfare and Cost Recovery in Two-Sided Markets
Description: Using a simple model of two-sided markets, we show that, in the social optimum, platform pricing leads to an inherent cost recovery problem. This result is driven by the positive externality of participation that users on either side of the market exert on the opposite side. The contribution of this positive externality to social welfare leads the social planner to increase users' participation by setting prices at both sides of the market such that the total price is below marginal cost. This causes operational losses for the platform. Our result holds for both interior pricing and skewed pricing in two-sided markets.
October 1, 2005
Clusters As a Driving Engine for FDI
Description: This paper develops a model that highlights the importance of clusters for attracting foreign direct investment. It shows from a game theoretical perspective how the combination of setting up a cluster and implementing policy reforms will be a key engine for attracting FDI. Based on agglomeration externalities, the paper shows that the very emergence of clusters can make investment so profitable that investors can even afford to tolerate more policyinduced distortions than otherwise. With perfect information, it shows the existence of multiple equilibria, in which some countries attract FDI while other do not. An extension to the context of imperfect information refines the analysis to a unique equilibrium, in which some investors respond to reforms. The paper presents case studies to support the findings.
October 1, 2005
Is Russia Still Driving Regional Economic Growth?
Description: This paper investigates whether the linkages between economic growth in Russia and growth in other countries in the region have weakened over time, particularly following the 1998 Russian crisis. It specifies an econometric model that includes standard growth determinants as well as Russian economic growth, and which allows for the effects of Russian growth to vary over time. The paper finds that Russian growth was indeed a significant determinant of regional economic growth prior to the Russian crisis, but that this link weakened significantly thereafter.