Working Papers
2005
December 1, 2005
Long-Run Productivity Shifts and Cyclical Fluctuations: Evidence for Italy
Description: Using unobserved stochastic components and Kalman filter techniques, the paper assesses the relative importance of transitory and permanent shifts in Italian real GDP within a production function framework. Evidence suggests that the increase in hours worked that has accompanied pension and labor market reforms accounts for the bulk of low-frequency variation in growth, but points to factor utilization as the main driver of business cycle fluctuations. In contrast with the predictions of standard Real Business Cycle models, a positive shock to the underlying rate of total factor productivity growth generates a slight decline in hours, whereas the response of output to the same shock is found to be positive.
December 1, 2005
Assessing Debt Sustainability in Emerging Market Economies Using Stochastic Simulation Methods
Description: This paper applies stochastic simulation methods to assess debt sustainability in emerging market economies and provide probability measures for projections of the external and public debt burden over the medium term. The vulnerability of public debt to adverse shocks is determined by a number of interrelated factors, including the volatility of output, financial fragility, the endogenous response of the risk premium, and sudden stops in private capital flows. The vulnerability of external debt is sensitive to the determination of the exchange rate and to the pricing of traded goods. We show that fiscal policy can act in a preemptive manner to prevent the debt burden from rising significantly over the medium term. This requires flexibility in fiscal planning, which many emerging market economies lack. Emerging market economies therefore face a difficult trade-off between managing the risk of a debt crisis and pursuing other important fiscal policy objectives.
November 1, 2005
Fiscal Dominance and Inflation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo
Description: This paper examines the fiscal dominance hypothesis in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) during 1981-2003, using multivariate cointegration analysis and vector errorcorrection modeling. Empirical results point to strong and statistically significant long-run relationships between budget deficits and seigniorage, and between money creation and inflation. The long-run inflationary impact of budget deficits is robust to the inclusion of output growth or velocity in the inflation and monetary growth equations. The paper offers some policy recommendations for long-term price stability in the DRC.
November 1, 2005
Estimating Markov Transition Matrices Using Proportions Data: An Application to Credit Risk
Description: This paper outlines a way to estimate transition matrices for use in credit risk modeling with a decades-old methodology that uses aggregate proportions data. This methodology is ideal for credit-risk applications where there is a paucity of data on changes in credit quality, especially at an aggregate level. Using a generalized least squares variant of the methodology, this paper provides estimates of transition matrices for the United States using both nonperforming loan data and interest coverage data. The methodology can be employed to condition the matrices on economic fundamentals and provide separate transition matrices for expansions and contractions, for example. The transition matrices can also be used as an input into other credit-risk models that use transition matrices as a basic building block.
November 1, 2005
VAT Refunds: A Review of Country Experience
Description: A key feature of the invoice-credit form of value-added tax (VAT) is that some businesses- notably exporters-will pay more tax on their purchases than is due on their sales, and so can seek refunds of excess credits from government. While refunding is straightforward in principle, serious problems arise in practice, including opportunities for fraud and corruption, and denial of refunds by governments with cash shortages. This makes the refund process the "Achilles heel" of the VAT. This paper examines the refund approaches of tax administrations in 36 developing, transitional, and developed countries. It evaluates the effectiveness of these approaches and suggests a model of best practice that takes into consideration compliance issues faced by countries during different stages of development.
November 1, 2005
Oil Price Shocks: Can they Account for the Stagflation in the 1970's?
Description: Using a variant of the IMF's Global Economy Model (GEM), featuring energy as both an intermediate input into production and a final consumption good, this paper examines the macroeconomic implications of large increases in the price of energy. Within a fully optimizing framework with nominal and real rigidities arising from costly adjustment, large increases in energy prices can generate an inflation response similar to that seen in the 1970s if the monetary authority misperceives the economy's supply capacity and workers resist the erosion in their real consumption wages resulting from the price increase. In the absence of either of these two responses, the model suggests that energy price shocks cannot generate the type of stagflation witnessed in the 1970s. Further, even allowing for these two effects, the results do not suggest that the increase in the price of oil in late 1973 and early 1974 can fully explain the extent of the slowing in real activity or the magnitude of the acceleration in inflation experienced in the United States in 1974 and 1975.
November 1, 2005
Understanding the Evolution of World Business Cycles
Description: This paper studies the changes in world business cycles during 1960-2003. We employ a Bayesian dynamic latent factor model to estimate common and country-specific components in the main macroeconomic aggregates of the Group of Seven (G-7) countries. We then quantify the relative importance of these components in explaining comovement in each observable aggregate over three distinct time periods: the Bretton Woods (BW) period (1960-72), the period of common shocks (1972-86), and the globalization period (1986-2003). The results indicate that the common (G-7) factor explains a larger fraction of output, consumption, and investment volatility in the globalization period than in the BW period. These findings suggest that the degree of comovement of business cycles in major macroeconomic aggregates across the G-7 countries has increased during the globalization period.
November 1, 2005
Macroeconomic Effects of Social Security and Tax Reform in the United States
Description: We use the IMF's Global Fiscal Model to evaluate recent proposals to reform social security and the tax system in the United States. Introducing personal retirement accounts is unlikely to yield significant macroeconomic benefits unless it spurs additional fiscal consolidation to prevent a large increase in government debt. Similar benefits are obtained if the social security surplus is placed in a lockbox while maintaining the same debt target. Lowering the taxation of investment income is beneficial, but only if the reform is revenue neutral. Debtneutral social security and tax reform in the United States has large positive effects on the rest of the world.
November 1, 2005
The Perils of Tax Smoothing: Sustainable Fiscal Policy with Random Shocks to Permanent Output
Description: If permanent output is uncertain, tax smoothing can be perilous: both debt levels and tax rates are difficult to stabilize and may drift upwards. One practical remedy would be to target the debt. However, our simulations confirm that such a policy would require undesirably volatile fiscal adjustments and may inhibit countercyclical borrowing. An alternative would be to link the primary surplus not only to the debt ratio (like tax smoothing) but also to its volatility, thus preempting further adjustments while gradually reducing the debt.
November 1, 2005
Strengthening IMF Crisis Prevention
Description: To better fulfill its crisis-prevention mandate, IMF surveillance needs to provide stronger incentives for countries to follow good policies and for markets to avoid boom-bust cycles in capital flows. To this end, surveillance should culminate in a summary public assessment of the quality of a country's policies and stipulate the actions needed to address shortcomings. A country's potential access to IMF credits should be linked to the quality of its policies in noncrisis periods in order to create stronger incentives for better policies and reduce incentives for capital to flow where it cannot be used in socially beneficial ways.