Working Papers
2006
January 1, 2006
Stylized Facts on Bilateral Trade and Currency Unions: Implications for Africa
Description: This paper explores and quantifies several aspects of the performance of currency unions using an augmented version of the gravity model and focusing on two samples, the world and Africa. Our empirical findings suggest that, in principle, membership in a currency union should benefit Africa as much as it does the rest of the world. In addition, we find evidence from both samples that the effect of currency unions on trade is large, almost a doubling; currency unions are associated with trade creation, increase price co-movements among members, and make trade more stable; and longer duration of currency union membership brings about more benefits, although with some diminishing returns.
January 1, 2006
Does Import Protection Discourage Exports?
Description: This paper points out that while many developing countries seek to increase their export earnings, they have not embraced fully the notion that their own pattern of import protection hurts their export performance. The paper quantifies the extent to which import protection acts as a tax on a country's export sector and finds that for many developing countries, the magnitude of the implicit tax is substantial-about 12 percent, on average, for the countries studied. The paper also illustrates the effects of various tariff-cutting scenarios in the Doha Round on export incentives and concludes that, in general, developing countries could increase their export earnings by reducing their own import tariffs, but countries must be careful about how these tariff reductions are achieved. For example, tariff-cutting schemes that exempt certain sectors could actually be harmful.
January 1, 2006
Sectoral Balance Sheet Mismatches and Macroeconomic Vulnerabilities in Colombia, 1996-2003
Description: We employ an extended version of the Allen et al. (2002) Balance Sheet Approach to examine macroeconomic vulnerabilities in Colombia between 1996 and 2003, based on an unusually rich data set. We find that vulnerabilities existing prior to Colombia's 1999 recession-high levels of private debt, a large negative foreign currency position of the corporate sector, and banks' exposure to stretched households and companies-receded subsequently. New vulnerabilities emerged, however, especially the high level of public debt accumulated until end-2003, and growing exposure of the financial sector to the sovereign.
2005
December 1, 2005
Measuring the Performance of Fiscal Policy in Russia
Description: This paper evaluates the performance of fiscal policy in Russia since the 1998 crisis along several dimensions, using a variety of indicators. Russia has progressed tremendously in recent years on public debt sustainability, largely thanks to the fact that the real interest rates on public debt have been negative and growth has been high. However, the constant oil-price balance shows a progressive worsening starting in 2001, with a modest reversal in 2004. The analysis of the non-oil fiscal balance shows that Russian fiscal policy has had a mixed record. Part of the windfalls were spent before the introduction of the oil stabilization fund, but most of the oil revenues have been saved during the last two year. This poses an important challenge for future years when the automatic saving mechanism provided by the oil stabilization fund will be weakened by the approved increase in the reference oil price. The standard fiscal impulse shows that budget policy has not contributed to the increase in aggregate demand since 2003. However, the fiscal position was not tight enough to contain the inflationary effects of the exceptional oil windfalls on the economy as a whole.
December 1, 2005
Remittances, Financial Development, and Growth
Description: There has been little systematic empirical study on the relationship between remittances and growth. This paper attempts to examine this relationship. Using a newly constructed crosscountry of data series for remittances covering a large sample of developing countries, we relate the interaction between remittances and financial development and its impact on growth. We analyze how a country's capacity to use remittances and its effectiveness in doing so might be influenced by local financial sector conditions. Given the difficulty of borrowing in developing countries, we explore the hypothesis that remittances can substitute for a lack of financial development and hence promote growth. The empirical analysis shows that remittances can promote growth in less financially developed countries. This relationship controls for the endogeneity of remittances and financial development using a Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) approach, does not depend on the particular measure of financial sector development used, and is robust to a number of sensitivity tests.
December 1, 2005
Real Exchange Rates in Growing Economies: How Strong Is the Role of the Nontradables Sector?
Description: This paper emphasizes the importance of total factor productivity (TFP) developments in the nontradables sector to quantitatively demonstrate that the time-honored Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis does not generally apply to episodes of economic growth. Though the Balassa- Samuelson hypothesis postulates that strong economic growth should, in general, be accompanied by a real appreciation in exchange rates, this paper does not find such systematic links. This is because some growth spurts are marked by equal TFP gains in both the tradables and nontradables sectors, and others by larger TFP gains in the nontradables sector.
December 1, 2005
Financial Sector Conditionality: Is Tougher Better?
Description: The aim of this paper is to take a closer look at IMF conditionality in the banking sector. Our analysis shows that while such conditionality became more stringent following the Asian crisis, compliance has remained broadly unchanged, comparing unfavorably with other structural reforms. The results of panel data regressions show that while compliance with IMF-supported banking sector reform strategies has contributed to an improvement in banking sector performance, increases in the hardness and intensity of IMF conditionality may not be, ceteris paribus, effective. The policy implication is that the IMF should, therefore, continue its efforts in enhancing countries' ownership and streamlining conditionality.
December 1, 2005
Labor and Product Market Deregulation: Partial, Sequential, or Simultaneous Reform?
Description: This study explores the effects of labor and product market deregulation on employment growth. Our empirical results, based on an OECD country panel from 1990-2004, suggest that lower levels of product and labor market regulation foster employment growth, including through sizable interaction effects. Based on these findings, the paper develops a theoretical framework for evaluating deregulation strategies in the presence of reform costs. Optimal deregulation takes various forms depending on the deregulation costs, the strength of reform interactions, and the perspective of the policymaker. Unless deregulation costs are very asymmetric across markets, optimal deregulation requires some form of coordination.
December 1, 2005
Fiscal Transparency and Economic Outcomes
Description: This paper develops indices of fiscal transparency for a broad range of countries based on the IMF's Code of Good Practices on Fiscal Transparency, using data derived from published fiscal transparency modules of the Reports on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSCs). The indices covers four clusters of fiscal transparency practices: data assurances, medium-term budgeting, budget execution reporting, and fiscal risk disclosures. More transparent countries are shown to have better credit ratings, better fiscal discipline, and less corruption, after controlling for other socioeconomic variables.
December 1, 2005
Macroeconomic Determinants of Remittances: Evidence from India
Description: Remittances to India have been growing rapidly since 1991, making it one of the largest recipients of remittances. This paper analyzes the determinants of remittances to India and finds that their growth over time can be explained by the increase in migration and total earnings of the migrants. Remittances are also affected by the economic environment in source countries, and appear to be countercyclical-that is, higher during periods of low economic growth in India. None of the remaining economic or political variables considered in the paper, including political uncertainty, interest rates, or exchange rate depreciation, are found to affect remittances significantly.