Working Papers
2006
January 1, 2006
Regulatory Capture in Banking
Description: Banks will want to influence the bank regulator to favor their interests, and they typically have the means to do so. It is shown that such "regulatory capture" in banking does not imply ineffectual regulation; a "captured" regulator may impose very tight, costly prudential requirements to reduce negative spillovers of risk-taking by weaker banks. In these circumstances, differences in the regulatory regime across jurisdictions may persist because each adapts its regulations to suit its dominant incumbent institutions.
January 1, 2006
Wealth Effects in Europe: A Tale of Two Countries (Italy and the United Kingdom)
Description: This paper investigates the increasing exposure of European households to risky financial assets and the consequent impact on the economy. I analyze household data for Italy and the United Kingdom, countries that differ dramatically in their financial structure and capital markets. I estimate an endogenous switching model with bivariate switching to overcome two important obstacles in this line of research, namely, the consumption Capital Asset Pricing Model Puzzle and the excess sensitivity puzzle. The results show that there are wealth effects in both countries. I find some evidence of liquidity constraints only in Italy and habit formation exclusively in the United Kingdom.
January 1, 2006
Procyclical Fiscal Policy: Shocks, Rules, and Institutions: A View From Mars
Description: This paper assesses the roles of shocks, rules, and institutions as possible sources of procyclicality in fiscal policy. By employing parametric and nonparametric techniques, I reach the following four main conclusions. First, policymakers' reactions to the business cycle is different depending on the state of the economy-fiscal policy is "acyclical" during economic bad times, while it is largely procyclical during good times. Second, fiscal rules and fiscal responsibility laws tend to reduce the deficit bias on average, and seem to enhance, rather than to weaken, countercyclical policy. However, the evidence also suggests that fiscal frameworks do not exert independent effects when the quality of institutions is accounted for. Third, strong institutions are associated to a lower deficit bias, but their effect on procyclicality is different in good and bad times, and it is subject to decreasing returns. Fourth, unlike developed countries, fiscal policy in developing countries is procyclical even during (moderate) recessions; in "good times," however, fiscal policy is actually more procyclical in developed economies.
January 1, 2006
Economic Transformation, Population Growth, and the Long-Run World Income Distribution
Description: This paper considers the long-run evolution of the world economy in a model where countries' opportunities to develop depend on their trade with advanced economies. As developing countries become advanced, they further improve trade opportunities for the remaining developing countries. Whether or not the world economy converges to widespread prosperity depends on the population growth differential between developing and advanced economies, the rate at which countries develop, and potentially on initial conditions. A calibration using historical data suggests that the long-run prospects for lagging developing regions, such as Africa, likely hinge on the sufficiently rapid development of China and India.
January 1, 2006
The Net Worth Approach to Fiscal Analysis: Dynamics and Rules
Description: The net worth approach to fiscal analysis is cast in a simple model able to capture the dynamics and steady-state equilibria of public sector's debt, nonfinancial and financial assets, and net worth under alternative fiscal rules, including the golden rule and the golden rule cum debt stabilization fund. The paper also presents an adaptation of the model to the case of economies with depletable resources that have introduced investment oil funds, and illustrates the fiscal conditions required for the solvency of the associated fiscal rules. The model brings to the forefront the rate of return of public assets, highlighting the need for policymakers to decide on the appropriate level of assets and debt ratios. Finally, the model's potential for use in a range of contexts is demonstrated with a simple numerical simulation. This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate.
January 1, 2006
Foreign Aid Policy and Sources of Poverty: A Quantitative Framework
Description: The econometric literature has been unable to establish a robust association between foreign aid and growth and poverty reduction. In this paper we argue that aid effectiveness must be assessed using methods that go beyond cross-country regressions. We calibrate a dynamic general equilibrium model that is capable of generating large income gaps between rich and poor countries. The model quantifies three sources of poverty: (i) lack of access to international capital, (ii) low schooling and high fertility (a poverty trap), and (iii) antigrowth domestic fiscal policy. We analyze policies designed to address each source of poverty and estimate and compare the aid cost of implementing the different policies. The policies differ dramatically in the extent and timing of their growth effects, and in the aid cost of their implementation.
January 1, 2006
Pricing and Hedging of Contingent Credit Lines
Description: Contingent credit lines (CCLs) are widely used in bank lending and also play an important role in the functioning of short-term capital markets. Yet, their pricing and hedging has not received much attention in the finance literature. Using a financial engineering approach, the paper analyzes the structure of simple CCLs, examines methods for their pricing, and discusses the problems faced in hedging CCL portfolios.
January 1, 2006
Reforming External Tariffs in Central and Western African Countries
Description: This paper examines the reform of the external tariff initiated by the CEMAC and the WAEMU that is aimed at reinforcing their economic integration. Overall, there is broad compliance with the streamlined and moderate rates, but with significant deviations from the harmonized paths in several countries. WAMZ countries, except Ghana, need to undertake major reforms in order to align their external tariff structures with that of the WAEMU as planned for 2007. To promote full compliance with the harmonized external tariff policies, the paper suggests, measures need to be taken, including the creation of financial incentives, at the regional and country levels.
January 1, 2006
Financial Dollarization in Latin America
Description: This paper tests several explanations for financial dollarization (FD), with an emphasis on Latin America. The results provide evidence that FD is a rational response to inflation uncertainty. The paper builds on previous research by finding that an exchange rate policy biased towards currency depreciation and currency mismatches tends to contribute to high FD and that FD is highly persistent. These results suggest that countries with significant FD should encourage the use of domestic currency by maintaining macroeconomic stability; allowing more exchange rate flexibility and less bias towards currency depreciation; and adapting prudential regulations to ensure that costs associated with FD are fully internalized in financial contracts. At the same time, restoring confidence in the domestic currency may take many years of sound policies.
January 1, 2006
The Macroeconomics of Remittances: The Case of Tajikistan
Description: The paper seeks to assess the macroeconomic implications of large-scale inward remittances for a small open economy. By including remittances in several standard models, the paper concludes that the overall macroeconomic impact of remittances is likely to be ambiguous. The impact depends on the structural characteristics of the receiving country, in particular its consumption and investment patterns, and its capacity to manage large financial inflows. As data deficiencies and methodological problems associated with remittances preclude crosscountry empirical investigation, the paper illustrates these findings with data on Tajikistan, where remittances as a share of GDP are among the highest in the world. The paper also evaluates the pros and cons of remittances in a broader political economy context.