Working Papers
2006
February 1, 2006
Trade, Inequality, and the Political Economy of Institutions
Description: We analyze the relationship between international trade and the quality of economic institutions, such as contract enforcement, rule of law, and property rights. In our model, firms differ in their preferences for institutional quality, which is determined endogenously in a political economy framework. We show that trade opening can worsen institutions when it increases the political power of a small elite of large exporters who prefer to maintain bad institutions. The detrimental effect of trade on institutions is most likely to occur when a small country captures a sufficiently large share of world exports in sectors characterized by economic profits.
February 1, 2006
Why Do Prices in Sierra Leone Change So Often? A Case Study Using Micro-level Price Data
Description: We use cross-section and time-series techniques to analyze pricing behavior in Sierra Leone. In cross-sectional data, we find that inflation volatility and product diversification are the main factors explaining differences in the frequency of price adjustments. We show that variance in the fraction of prices subject to change is a key determinant of inflation volatility in Sierra Leone, indicating that retail prices are sensitive to economic events. We explain variations in this fraction over time with past inflation and monetary growth, which are important policy variables.
February 1, 2006
Business Cycles and Workers' Remittances: How Do Migrant Workers Respond to Cyclical Movements of GDP At Home?
Description: Workers' remittances are often argued to have a tendency to move countercyclically with the GDP in recipient countries since migrant workers are expected to remit more during down cycles of economic activity back home. Yet, how much to remit is a complex decision involving other factors, and different variables driving remittance behavior are differently affected by the state of economic activity over the business cycle. This paper investigates the behavior of workers' remittances flows into 12 developing countries over their respective business cycles during 1976-2003 and finds that countercyclicality of receipts is not commonly observed across these countries.
February 1, 2006
Malaysian Capital Controls: Macroeconomics and Institutions
Description: We analyze the capital controls imposed in Malaysia in September 1998. In macroeconomic terms, these controls neither yielded major benefits nor were costly. At the same time, the stock market interpreted the capital controls (and associated events) as favoring firms with stronger political connections, and some connected firms reportedly received advantages immediately following the crisis. Analysis of financial accounts indicates that connected firms outperformed unconnected firms before the 1997-98 crisis but not afterward. After the crisis, connected firms were either not supported as much as the market had expected or the benefits they received were not manifest in their published accounts.
February 1, 2006
The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Jordan
Description: This paper examines monetary transmission in Jordan using the vector autoregressive approach. We find that the real 3-month CD rate, the Central Bank's operating target, affects bank retail rates and that monetary policy, measured by the spread between the 3-month CD rate and the U.S. Federal Funds rate, is effective in influencing foreign reserves. We do not find evidence of monetary policy affecting output. Output responds very little to changes in bank lending rates. Furthermore, equity prices and the exchange rate are not significant channels for transmitting monetary policy to economic activity. The effect of monetary policy on the stock market seems insignificant.
February 1, 2006
How Different Is the Cyclical Behavior of Home Production Across Countries?
Description: This paper studies stylized business cycle properties of household production in four industrialized countries (Canada, the United States, Germany, and Japan). We employ a dynamic small open economy business cycle model that incorporates a household production sector. We use the model to generate data on home output, hours worked in the home sector, and hours spent on leisure. We find that in each country, home output is more volatile than market output while home sector hours are about as volatile as those in the market sector. In each country, leisure is the least volatile series. Leisure hours and home hours are countercyclical in all countries, and home output is not highly correlated with market output. Home sector variables are generally less persistent than market variables, and cross-country correlations related to home production tend to be lower than those related to market production. These findings demonstrate that despite some well-known structural differences in labor markets, the cyclical features of home sector variables are similar across the countries we consider.
February 1, 2006
Banking Spreads in Latin America
Description: Intermediation spreads in Latin America are high by international standards. This paper examines the determinants of bank interest margins in that region using bank and country-level data from 85 countries, including 14 Latin American economies. The results suggest that Latin America has higher interest rates, less efficient banks, and larger reserve requirements than other regions and that these factors have a significant impact on spreads. However, Latin American countries do not differ markedly from their peers in other aspects that are found important in determining the cost of financial intermediation, such as inflation and bank profit taxation.
February 1, 2006
Banks During the Argentine Crisis: Were they All Hurt Equally? Did they All Behave Equally?
Description: The simple answer to both questions in the title of this paper is: No. We concentrate on the three main risk elements that contributed to the banking system’s difficulties during the crisis: increasing dollarization of the balance sheet, expanding exposure to the government, and, eventually, the run on deposits. We find that there was substantial cross-bank variation in these elements—that is, not all banks were hurt equally by macroeconomic shocks. Furthermore, using panel data estimation for the 1998–2001 period, we find that depositors were able to distinguish high- from low-risk banks, and that individual banks’ exposure to currency and government default risk depended on bank fundamentals and other characteristics. Thus, not all banks behaved equally in the run-up to the crisis. Finally, our results have implications for the existence of market discipline in periods of stress and for banking regulation, which may have led banks to underestimate some of the risks they incurred.
February 1, 2006
Macroeconomic Challenges with EU Accession in Southeastern Europe: An Overview
Description: The paper reviews key macroeconomic challenges with EU accession in Southeastern Europe (SEE). Most of the countries in the region are years away from EU accession and need substantial progress to meet the key macroeconomic criteria-the establishment of a functioning market economy and macroeconomic stability. The former calls for further structural reforms. While macroeconomic stability is essential throughout the EU accession process, the importance of specific outcomes increases in the last stage of accession, when countries face decisions to apply for entry into the ERM2 and the Maastricht criteria (Bulgaria and Romania). The main challenges with establishing macroeconomic stability in other countries are related to sustainability of their monetary frameworks, risks from rapid financial deepening, and further fiscal consolidation to support growth and stabilization. Most of the SEE countries have room to lower public spending and increase the share of pro-growth spending.
February 1, 2006
Providing official Statistics for the Common Market and Monetary Union in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Countries: A Case for "Gulfstat"
Description: The six member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)-Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates (UAE)-have laid out a path to a common market by 2007 and monetary union by 2010, based on economic convergence. To monitor convergence and support economic and monetary policy, comparable economic data for member countries and data for the region as a whole will be essential. What is the most efficient way to produce these data? The authors survey the statistical institutions in the GCC countries and present the case for creating "Gulfstat"-a regional statistical agency to operate within a "Gulf States System of Statistics." Valuable lessons can be learned from regional statistical organization in Africa and the European Union-Afristat and Eurostat.