Working Papers
2006
May 1, 2006
Review and Implementation of Credit Risk Models of the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP)
Description: The paper presents the basic Credit Risk+ model, and proposes some modifications. This model could be useful in the stress-testing financial sector assessments process as a benchmark for credit risk evaluations. First, we present the setting and basic definitions common to all the model specifications used in this paper. Then, we proceed from the simplest model based on Bernoulli-distributed default events and known default probabilities to the fully-fledged Credit Risk+ implementation. The latter is based on the Poisson approximation and uncertain default probabilities determined by mutually independent risk factors. As an extension we present a Credit Risk+ specification with correlated risk factors as in Giese (2003). Finally, we illustrate the characteristics and the results obtained from the different models using a specific portfolio of obligors.
May 1, 2006
Immiserizing Foreign Aid: The Roles of Tariffs and Nontraded Goods
Description: International trade theory has pointed out that factor accumulation could immiserize a country if it is sufficiently biased toward the export sector, or if it is biased toward an importcompeting sector in the presence of tariff protection. This paper analyzes the impact of aid, in the form of an increase in the capital stock used only in the nontraded sector, on real income. Yano and Nugent (1999) discussed this issue, but their analysis turned out to be incorrect. This paper demonstrates that whether aid in the form of an increase in capital specific to the nontraded sector reduces welfare depends on how aid affects the price of the nontraded good and on whether imports and the nontraded good are substitutes or complements in demand.
May 1, 2006
Outcomes-Based Conditionality: Its Role and Optimal Design
Description: The paper employs a principal-agent framework to analyze the role and design of outcomesbased conditionality in the presence of market frictions and domestic opposition. The results suggest that outcomes-based conditionality is a good option for the IMF when opposition to reforms is relatively weak and when the IMF loan is unsubsidized. The only role conditionality ends up playing in this case is that of an efficiency tool. The benefits of outcomes-based conditionality in the presence of strong opposition are less clear, and using this conditionality as an incentive tool would require that IMF financing be subsidized.
May 1, 2006
A Framework for Independent Monetary Policy in China
Description: As China's economy becomes more market based and continues its rapid integration into the global economy, having an independent and effective monetary policy regime oriented to domestic objectives will become increasingly important. Employing modern principles of monetary policy in light of the current state of China's financial institutions, we motivate and present a package of proposals to guide the operation of a new monetary policy regime. Specifically, we recommend an explicit low long-run inflation objective, operational independence for the People's Bank of China (PBC) with formal strategic guidance from the government, and a minimal set of financial sector reforms (to make the Chinese banking system robust against interest rate fluctuations). We argue that anchoring monetary policy with an explicit inflation objective would be the most reliable way for the PBC to tie down inflation expectations, and thereby enable monetary policy to make the best contribution to macroeconomic and financial stability, as well as economic growth. The management and monitoring of money (and credit) growth by the PBC would continue to play a useful role in the stabilization of inflation, but a money target would not constitute a good stand-alone nominal anchor.
April 1, 2006
Aid Scaling Up: Do Wage Bill Ceilings Stand in the Way?
Description: This paper assesses whether the scaling up of aid and the resulting increase in government spending that is needed to meet the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) would be hampered by wage bill ceilings that are often part of government programs supported by the IMF's Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF). Based on country case studies for 2003-05, the paper suggests that, in the past, wage bill ceilings have not restricted the use of available donor funds. Yet the paper offers a number of suggestions for further enhancing the flexibility of wage bill conditionality in PRGF-supported programs to respond to higher aid flows that may result in the future.
April 1, 2006
A New Risk Indicator and Stress Testing Tool: A Multifactor Nth-to-Default CDS Basket
Description: This paper generalizes a market-based indicator for financial sector surveillance using a multifactor latent structure in the determination of the default probabilities of an nth-todefault credit default swap (CDS) basket of large complex financial institutions (LCFIs). To estimate the multifactor latent structure, we link the market risk (the covariance of the LCFIs' equity) to credit risk (the default probability of the CDS basket) in a coherent manner. In addition, to analyze the response of the probabilities of default to changing macroeconomic conditions, we run a stress test by generating shocks to the latent multifactor structure. The results unveil a rich set of default probability dynamics and help in identifying the most relevant sources of risk. We anticipate that this approach could be of value to financial supervisors and risk managers alike.
April 1, 2006
Market-Based Estimation of Default Probabilities and its Application to Financial Market Surveillance
Description: This paper reviews a number of different techniques for estimating default probabilities from the prices of publicly traded securities. These techniques are useful for assessing credit exposure, systemic risk, and stress testing financial systems. The choice of techniques was guided by their ease of implementation and their applicability to a wide cross-section of countries and markets. Simple one-period cases are studied to sharpen the reader's intuition, and the usefulness of each technique for enhancing financial surveillance is illustrated with real applications.
April 1, 2006
Mind the Gap—Is Economic Growth in India Leaving Some States Behind?
Description: This paper examines how growth has varied across India's states. It finds that (i) the income gap between rich and poor states has widened; (ii) rich and faster-growing states have been more effective in reducing poverty; (iii) poor and slower-growing states have had little success in generating private sector jobs; (iv) labor and capital flows do little to close income gaps; and (v) the volatility in economic growth is greatest in poor states. Differences in states' policies affect the cross-state pattern of growth. Greater private sector investment, smaller governments, and better institutions are found to have a positive impact on growth.
April 1, 2006
Sudden Stops and IMF-Supported Programs
Description: Could a high-access, quick-disbursing "insurance facility" in the IMF help to reduce the incidence of sharp interruptions in capital flows ("sudden stops")? We contribute to the debate around this question by analyzing the impact of conventional IMF-supported programs on the incidence of sudden stops. Correcting for the non-random assignment of programs, we find that sudden stops are fewer and generally less severe when an IMF arrangement exists and that this form of "insurance" works best for countries with strong fundamentals. In contrast there is no evidence that a Fund-supported program attenuates the output effects of capital account reversals if these nonetheless occur.
April 1, 2006
Using the Balance Sheet Approach in Surveillance: Framework, Data Sources, and Data Availability
Description: Recent improvements in statistical methodologies and data availability are facilitating detailed, high-frequency, timely macroeconomic balance sheet analysis. This paper provides practical instruction on how to design the framework to analyze vulnerabilities in a country as well as an overview of data sources that can be employed for this analysis. The paper also discusses how these new datasets are enhancing surveillance activities related to balance sheet vulnerabilities.