Working Papers
2006
May 1, 2006
Putting the New Keynesian Model to a Test
Description: In recent years, New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (NK DSGE) models have become increasingly popular in the academic literature and in policy analysis. However, the success of these models in reproducing the dynamic behavior of an economy following structural shocks is still disputed. This paper attempts to shed light on this issue. We use a VAR with sign restrictions that are robust to model and parameter uncertainty to estimate the effects of monetary policy, preference, government spending, investment, price markup, technology, and labor supply shocks on macroeconomic variables in the United States and the euro area. In contrast to the NK DSGE models, the empirical results indicate that technology shocks have a positive effect on hours worked, and investment and preference shocks have a positive impact on consumption and investment, respectively. While the former is in line with the predictions of Real Business Cycle models, the latter indicates the relevance of accelerator effects, as described by earlier Keynesian models. We also show that NK DSGE models might overemphasize the contribution of cost-push shocks to business cycle fluctuations while, at the same time, underestimating the importance of other shocks such as changes to technology and investment adjustment costs.
May 1, 2006
Who Saves in Ireland? The Micro Evidence
Description: This paper provides detailed empirical evidence on the saving behavior of Irish households using micro data from the 1994/95 and 1999/2000 Household Budget Surveys. I employ synthetic cohort techniques to characterize the life cycle profile of saving rates and to examine the response of household saving to house price appreciation. The analysis suggests that households at the peak of their working lives have relatively low savings though there is no evidence of a generational savings gap. Also, despite housing being a major component of Irish households, wealth, there is no strong relationship between savings and housing capital gains.
May 1, 2006
Altruism and Workers’ Remittances: Evidence from Selected Countries in the Middle East and Central Asia
Description: Workers' remittances have been playing an increasingly important role in the balance of payments of many countries and can significantly contribute to the strength of their external positions. Assessing the likely stability of remittance flows could be a valuable input to the analysis of their external vulnerabilities. This paper argues that "altruism," as a motive to send money home, would contribute to the stability of these flows. Using a simple framework that relates workers' remittances to agricultural GDP, which is used as an indicator of economic "hardship" in the home country, evidence suggests that altruism could have played an important role in the flow of remittances to Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Pakistan, and Tunisia in recent years.
May 1, 2006
HIV/AIDS: The Impact on Poverty and Inequality
Description: Using available data on the distribution of HIV/AIDS prevalence across population groups for four sub-Saharan African countries and transposing this information to household income and expenditure surveys, we simulate the impact of HIV/AIDS on poverty and inequality. We find that the epidemic lowers average income and increases poverty, and that the jump in poverty is larger than expected from the fall in average income. This disproportionate increase in poverty reflects the large share of the population living on the threshold of poverty and the higher HIV prevalence rates in those segments of the population.
May 1, 2006
Indirect Taxes on International Aviation
Description: This paper examines the case for internationally coordinated indirect taxes on aviation (as a source of general revenue-not (necessarily) as a source of development finance). The case for such taxes is strong: the tax burden on international aviation is currently limited, yet it contributes significantly to border-crossing environmental damage. A tax on aviation fuel would address the key border-crossing externalities most directly; a ticket tax could raise more revenue; departure taxes face the least legal obstacles. Optimal policy requires deploying both fuel and ticket taxes. A fuel tax of 20 U.S. cents per gallon (10 percent, at today's fuel prices, corresponding to assessed environmental damage), or alternatively ticket taxes of 2.5 percent, would raise about US$10 billion if imposed worldwide, and US$3 billion if applied only in Europe.
May 1, 2006
Setting the Operational Framework for Producing Inflation Forecasts
Description: How should a central bank organize itself to produce the best possible inflation forecast? This paper discusses elements for building a comprehensive platform for an inflation forecasting framework. It describes the exercise of forecasting inflation as a production process, which induces a strict discipline concerning data management, information gathering, the use of a suitable statistical apparatus, and the exercise of sound communication strategies to reinforce reputation and credibility. It becomes critical how a central bank organizes itself to produce relevant macroeconomic forecasts, with special consideration to product design, the essential requirements needed in the forecasting process, and key related organizational issues. In addition, the paper proposes to factor into the process the authorities' policy responses to previous inflation forecasts in order to be consistent with the spirit of the inflation targeting framework.
May 1, 2006
Fiscal Decentralization and Public Subnational Financial Management in Peru
Description: There is increasing interest in fiscal decentralization in Peru as a mechanism to generate more involved decision-making at the subnational level. This is tempered with a continuing emphasis on overall fiscal stability. However, considerable work needs to be undertaken to define more clearly expenditure responsibilities and financing mechanisms that increase local accountability. In addition, a more transparent fiscal transfer system is needed, together with clarity in expenditure management at all levels of government. The paper suggests that a substantial work agenda is needed to extend the decentralization process with greater transparency.
May 1, 2006
Reflections on Quantitative Fiscal Conditionality in African PRGF-Supported Programs
Description: We survey quantitative fiscal conditionality in selected sub-Saharan African PRGFsupported programs, and assess the conditionality against some possible benchmarks and best practices. While noting many caveats, the paper suggests some possible scope for further attuning of this conditionality to countries' specific macro-fiscal situations. The paper also offers some suggestions on how quantitative fiscal conditionality might be further enhanced.
May 1, 2006
The Korean Crisis: What Did We Know and When Did We Know It? What Stress Tests of the Corporate Sector Reveal
Description: The objective of this paper is to provide a retrospective assessment of our ability to have predicted the impact of the 1997 crisis on the Korean corporate sector. We perform some simple stress tests on the aggregate balance sheets and income statements of the corporate sector to determine what could have been foreseen before the onset of the crisis. Our results show that data available in mid-1997 clearly showed that the corporate sector was very sensitive to various shocks, particularly interest rate shocks. Had stress tests been performed at the time, they would have revealed that the corporate sector was highly vulnerable to adverse economic developments. Our findings suggest that close surveillance of corporate sector balance sheets can play a useful role in understanding potential financial vulnerabilities.
May 1, 2006
Growth and Productivity in Papua New Guinea
Description: This paper has examined Papua New Guinea's historical economic growth patterns through a simple growth accounting framework. The analysis shows that swings in growth are mostly accounted for by a significant slowdown in capital input and lower Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth. It also suggests that raising real GDP growth will require increases in both investment levels and productivity. With a ratio of investment to GDP of 13 percent during the last decade, significantly higher productivity growth and investment will be needed to sustain GDP growth rates at 5 percent or higher. The historical performance also indicates that, in the absence of structural reforms and strong institutions, higher rates of productivity growth will be hard to achieve.