Working Papers
2006
June 1, 2006
Is Housing Wealth An 'ATM'? the Relationship Between Household Wealth, Home Equity withdrawal, and Saving Rates
Description: This paper examines the role increasing personal wealth and home equity withdrawal (HEW) have had in the decline in the personal saving rate in the United States. It does so by comparing the U.S. experience with those of Australia, Canada, and the United Kingdom. Mortgage market liberalization and innovation should reduce household cash flow and collateral constraints while making housing wealth more liquid as HEW becomes easier over time. Regression analysis indicates the expected negative relationship between U.S. saving and net worth, with a somewhat smaller coefficient than in previous studies. HEW is estimated to have a temporary negative impact on saving of the order of 20 cents on the dollar.
June 1, 2006
Inflation, Inequality, and Social Conflict
Description: This paper presents and then tests a political economy model to analyze the observed positive relationship between income inequality and inflation. The model's key features are unequal access to both inflation-hedging opportunities and the political process. The model predicts that inequality and 'elite bias' in the political system interact to create incentives for inflation. The paper's empirical section focuses on this predicted interaction effect. The identification strategy involves using the end of the Cold War as a source of exogenous variation in the political environment. It finds robust evidence in support of the model.
June 1, 2006
Inflation Targeting in Dollarized Economies
Description: The shift to inflation targeting has contributed to the relatively low inflation observed in some emerging market economies although, as noted by many economists, the preconditions required for a successful implementation were not in place. The existence of managed exchange rate regimes, a narrow base of domestic nominal financial assets, the lack of market instruments to hedge exchange rate risks, together with fear of floating and dollarization, have been stressed as factors that might weaken the efficacy of monetary policy. By examining various aspects of monetary transmission and policy formulation in two highly dollarized economies (Peru and Bolivia) vis-à-vis two economies with low levels of dollarization (Chile and Colombia), we found that, while dollarization imposes differences in both the transmission capacity of monetary policy and its impact on real and financial sectors, it does not preclude the use of inflation targeting as a policy regime.
June 1, 2006
Domestic Investment and the Cost of Capital in the Caribbean
Description: Investment-to-GDP ratios across the Caribbean tend to be relatively high. In many countries, these ratios have been trending higher since the mid-1990s, largely reflecting public investment and foreign direct investment. Private domestic investors have been less prominent. This may be one reason why such high investment has delivered Caribbean growth rates below the middle-income average. This paper seeks to understand how higher private investment may be encouraged. Using new data, it concludes that: the multiplier effects of public investment and FDI on private domestic investment are weak; and private domestic investment (PDI) is sensitive to the cost of capital. Public policy designed to raise PDI should focus on creating conditions for a lower cost of capital. The focus should be on removing barriers to lower real interest rates, rather than the further extension of costly tax concessions.
June 1, 2006
Is Systematic Default Risk Priced in Equity Returns? A Cross-Sectional Analysis Using Credit Derivatives Prices
Description: This paper finds that systematic default risk, or the event of widespread defaults in the corporate sector, is an important determinant of equity returns. Moreover, the market price of systematic default risk is one order of magnitude higher than the market price of other risk factors. In contrast to studies by Fama and French (1993, 1996 ) and Vassalou and Xing (2004), this paper uses a market-based measure of systematic default risk. The measure is constructed using price information from credit derivatives prices, namely the spreads of standardized single-tranche collateralized debt obligations on credit derivatives indices.
June 1, 2006
Does Fiscal Policy Matter for the Trade Account? A Panel Cointegration Study
Description: This paper analyzes the empirical relationship between fiscal policy and the trade account. Research prior to this paper did not consider that the components of private and public demand in the import demand equation exhibit different elasticities. Using pooled mean group estimation for annual panel data of the G-7 countries for the years 1970 through 2002, we provide empirical evidence that the composition of overall demand-i.e., the distribution among public demand, private demand, and export demand-has an impact on the magnitude of the trade account deficit.
June 1, 2006
Did Botswana Escape from the Resource Curse?
Description: Botswana is typical of the countries that are endowed with abundant natural resources. Although it is commonly accepted that resource-rich economies tend to fail in accelerating growth, Botswana has experienced the most remarkable economic performance in the region. Using the latest cross-country data, this study empirically readdresses the question of whether resource abundance can contribute to growth. It finds that governance determines the extent to which the growth effects of resource wealth can materialize. In developing countries in particular, the quality of regulation, such as the predictability of changes of regulations, and anticorruption policies, such as transparency and accountability in the public sector, are most important for effective natural resource management and growth.
May 1, 2006
Sudden Stops and Currency Drops: A Historical Look
Description: This paper shows that recent manifestations of sudden stops (SSs) in international capital flows have striking parallels in the early financial globalization era preceding World War I. All main capital-importing countries then faced episodic capital flow reversals averaging some 5 percent of GDP and with a median duration of four years. Most SSs also displayed striking crosscountry synchronization, being immediately preceded by rising world interest rates. Both fixed and floating exchange rate regimes were hit, with no significant differences between them. Yet, not all SSs resulted in currency drops: while some countries experienced currency collapses, others managed to preserve exchange rate stability. These different responses are related to domestic "frictions" that heightened the procyclicality of absorption and hindered precautionary reserve accumulation in some countries relative to others.
May 1, 2006
Enforcement and the Stability and Growth Pact: How Fiscal Policy Did and Did Not Change Under Europe’s Fiscal Framework
Description: The Stability and Growth Pact has been a success in numerous EU countries, especially in guiding them toward underlying fiscal balance ahead of population aging. These countries tend to be smaller, subject to greater macroeconomic volatility, and reliant on a form of fiscal governance that emphasizes targets and contracts. Most of the new members share these characteristics. For the countries less compatible with the Pact, domestic governance reforms that increase the reputational costs for noncompliance can be useful complements to the fiscal framework.
May 1, 2006
The Role of Interest Rates in Business Cycle Fluctuations in Emerging Market Countries: The Case of Thailand
Description: Emerging market countries have enjoyed an exceptionally favorable economic environment throughout 2004, 2005, and early 2006. In particular, accommodative U.S. monetary policy in recent years has helped create an environment of low interest rates in international capital markets. However, if world interest rates were to take a sudden upward course, this would lead to less hospitable financing conditions for emerging market countries. The purpose of this paper is to measure the effects of world interest rate shocks on real activity in Thailand. The analysis incorporates balance sheet related credit market frictions into the IMF’s Global Economy Model (GEM) and finds that Thailand would best minimize the adverse effects of rising world interest rates if it were to follow a flexible exchange rate regime.