Working Papers
2007
February 1, 2007
Pricing Fund Liquidity Provision
Description: This paper presents a market-based framework for pricing Fund liquidity assistance that accounts for the credit risk and the insurance benefit involved in such operations. It is based on the isomorphic correspondence between Fund liquidity and common stock put options. Although only illustrative, the simulations presented in this paper show that the value of the liquidity guarantee provided by the Fund could range from a few to over one hundred basis points depending on the borrower's creditworthiness, the volatility of capital flows to the borrowing country, and the amount of funds potentially needed to meet the borrower's external obligations.
February 1, 2007
Capital Structure and International Debt Shifting
Description: This paper presents a model of a multinational firm's optimal debt policy that incorporates international taxation factors. The model yields the prediction that a multinational firm's indebtedness in a country depends on a weighted average of national tax rates and differences between national and foreign tax rates. These differences matter because multinationals have an incentive to shift debt to high-tax countries. The predictions of the model are tested using a novel firm-level dataset for European multinationals and their subsidiaries, combined with newly collected data on the international tax treatment of dividend and interest streams. Our empirical results show that corporate debt policy indeed not only reflects domestic corporate tax rates but also differences in international tax systems. These findings contribute to our understanding of how corporate debt policy is set in an international context.
February 1, 2007
Impact of Remittances on Poverty and Financial Development in Sub-Saharan Africa
Description: This paper assesses the impact of the steadily growing remittance flows to sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Though the region receives only a small portion of the total recorded remittances to developing countries, and the volume of aid flows to SSA swamps remittances, this paper finds that remittances, which are a stable, private transfer, have a direct poverty mitigating effect, and promote financial development. These findings hold even after factoring in the reverse causality between remittances, poverty and financial development. The paper posits that formalizing such flows can serve as an effective access point for "unbanked" individuals and households, and that the effective use of such flows can mitigate the costs of skilled out-migration in SSA.
February 1, 2007
Danish for All? Balancing Flexibility with Security: The Flexicurity Model
Description: The Danish flexicurity model has attracted attention among policymakers in Europe, because it suggests that a flexible labor market can coexist with a generous welfare system to achieve low unemployment. Using a panel of 19 countries over 1960-2002, the paper identifies the elements of the flexicurity model that may have contributed to the low unemployment rate. A theoretical model of dynamic policies is constructed to analyze whether the model can be emulated by other countries. Focusing on the financing aspect, the paper finds that effective implementation will depend on the initial unemployment level and budgetary situation of the country.
February 1, 2007
VAT Fraud and Evasion: What Do We Know, and What Can be Done?
Description: Like any tax, the VAT is vulnerable to evasion and fraud. But its credit and refund mechanism does offer unique opportunities for abuse, and this has recently become an urgent concern in the European Union (EU). This paper describes the main forms of noncompliance distinctive to a VAT, considers how they can be addressed, and assesses evidence on their extent in high-income countries. While the practical significance of current difficulties in the EU should not be over-stated, administrative measures alone may prove insufficient to deal with them, and a fundamental redesign of the VAT treatment of intra-community trade required. The current difficulties in the EU largely reflect circumstances that would not apply in the United States.
February 1, 2007
Public Pension Reform: A Primer
Description: The present paper reviews key issues in pension design and pension reform encountered all across the world. The paper heavily refers to the recent U.S. Social Security reform debate in general and to the Personal Retirement Accounts proposal in particular. A particular emphasis is put on annuitization and risk-taking in the economy. Our discussion signals some inadequacy of the proposed measures with respect to the goals of viability of the system and individual financial security during retirement.
February 1, 2007
Fiscal Policy and the Exchange Rate-Current Account Nexus
Description: By using a simple intertemporal model of the current account, I show that the exchange rate elasticity of the trade balance would ceteris paribus be smaller for countries with higher government spending ratios (relative to GDP) and with more limited scope for private consumption smoothing. This finding may have important implications for the design of adjustment programs and for resolving current global imbalances. It could also help explain and reconcile mixed empirical findings on trade elasticities.
February 1, 2007
Italy—Assessing Competition and Efficiency in the Banking System
Description: The paper assesses the degree of banking competition and efficiency in Italy?over time as well as compared to that in other countries, such as France, Germany, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The paper finds competition in the Italian banking sector has intensified in loan and deposit markets in recent years, but banks still operate in a highcost, high-income system, particularly with respect to retail/services, and efficiency gains have yet to fully materialize. The degree of competition falls within the range of estimates for a set of comparator countries. Greater contestability should act as a powerful force to drive banks to become more competitive and efficient. Competition policy will also continue to be an important consideration, both in enforcing Italy's antitrust laws and in ensuring that the procedures for dealing with weak banks and other merger and acquisition reviews focus on stability and competition objectives.
February 1, 2007
The Fear of Freedom: Politicians and the Independence and Accountability of Financial Sector Supervisors
Description: Compared with the case of central bank independence, independence for financial sector supervisors remains more controversial. This paper analyzes changes in independence and accountability arrangements in a set of 32 countries that overhauled their legal and/or institutional frameworks for supervision in recent years. Despite improvements, there is strong evidence that the endorsement of independence remains half-hearted, which shows itself through either overcompensation on the accountability side, or resort to political control mechanisms. The latter could potentially undermine the agency's credibility. The results indicate that policymakers still need to be persuaded of the long-term benefits of independence for financial sector soundness, and of the potential for a virtuous interaction between independence and accountability, if the arrangements are well-designed.
February 1, 2007
Public Expenditure in Latin America: Trends and Key Policy Issues
Description: This paper examines trends in government spending in Latin America from the mid-1990s to 2006. It also examines key policy issues, including the cyclicality of spending, public investment, public employment, and social expenditures. It finds that primary expenditures have trended upward for the past ten years as a share of GDP, driven by increases in current spending, in particular for social expenditures. Fluctuations in real spending have continued to follow a procyclical pattern. The paper finds that there is substantial scope to improve the efficiency of public investment, public employment, and social spending.